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Rupee expected to recover to 250 against dollar: top currency dealer

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  • Exchange companies now getting $15 million per day: Bostan.
  • Crackdown exposes nexus between black marketeers, banking staff: ECAP chief.
  • Permanent check on illegal dollar trade will help boost reserves.

ISLAMABAD: Chairman Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan (ECAP) Malik Bostan hopes in the backdrop of government’s crackdown against hoarders, black marketeers and smugglers of dollars, the country’s remittances may increase by 10-20%.

Talking to The News, he said because of the crackdown the foreign exchange companies, which earlier used to get around $5 million per day, are now getting $15 million per day i.e., 200% increase. For the same reason, he said the interbank and open market dollar rate has considerably come down and now stands around Rs295. He assured if the crackdown continued, the dollar will come down to below Rs250.

Bostan disclosed the crackdown against hoarders, black marketeers and smugglers of dollars has also exposed a nexus between black marketeers and banking staff. Huge amount of dollars, he said, was stashed in lockers of different banks, and the bank staff in coordination with the black marketers, used these dollars for hawala/hundi. Keys of these lockers were with the corrupt bank staff members, Bostan said, adding upon receiving messages from black marketers concerned, they (bankers) used to do the illegal trading of US dollars.

The chairman of ECAP claimed several FIRs have been lodged against the bankers involved in this illegal activity.

Bostan said the illegal dollar business has also corrupted many importers and exporters. He explained there is a trend of over-invoicing among importers and under-invoicing among exporters only for the sake of dollars’ illegal trade. The importers through their over-invoicing send more dollars abroad, whereas the exporters through under-invoicing leave a considerable part of their dollars in foreign banks. This hurt Pakistan and its foreign exchange reserves, Bostan said.

He also pointed out how the dollars were smuggled to Afghanistan. He believed a permanent check on illegal dollar trade in all its shapes will help Pakistan boost its foreign exchange reserves.

Following the crackdown, which began on Sept 6 after a military leadership push, tens of millions of dollars have already been deposited into the country’s interbank and open markets. Pakistani rupee, which had plumbed record lows to Rs308 in interbank and beyond Rs330 in open market early this month, is in recovery mode and has come down to Rs295 in interbank and Rs296 in open market. This trend is expected to continue if the crackdown against illegal trade of US dollar continues.

According to Bostan, he had requested Army Chief General Asim Munir to take action against hoarders, black marketeers and smugglers of dollars. Before the crackdown, the vast majority of people were going to black market dealers.

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Pakistan’s gold prices are still declining; see the most recent

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The price of 10-gram gold reduced by Rs943 to settle at Rs207,733, while the price of gold dropped by Rs1200 to close at Rs242,300 a tola, according to the Sindh Sarafa Jewellers Association.

In the global market, the price of the precious metal fell by $10 to $2,349 per ounce, resulting in losses.

At 04:48 GMT, the spot price of gold had dropped by 0.2% to $2,354.77 per ounce. In the previous session, prices reached a two-week high.

American gold futures dropped 0.6% to $2,361.

Spot silver decreased by 0.4% to $28.03 per ounce, while palladium remained steady at $978.03 and platinum decreased by 0.1% to $992.89.

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Pakistan and the IMF begin talks for a new loan.

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Pakistan is requesting a $6 to $8 billion bailout package from the international lender over the next three to four years to address its financial troubles.

A mission team led by Nathan Porter, the IMF’s Mission Chief in Pakistan, is meeting with a Pakistani delegation led by Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb.

According to sources familiar with the situation, Islamabad may face more difficult options, such as raising power and gas bills.

Mr. Aurganzeb informed the IMF team that the country’s economy has improved as a result of the IMF loan package, and Islamabad is ready to sign a new loan programme to further develop.

The IMF mission expressed satisfaction with Islamabad’s efforts to revive the country’s struggling economy.

The IMF praised Pakistan’s economic growth in its staff report earlier this week, but warned that the outlook remains challenging, with very high downside risks.

The country nearly avoided collapse last summer, and its $350 billion economy has stabilized since the end of the last IMF program, with inflation falling to roughly 17% in April from a record high of 38% last May.

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Petrol prices are likely to drop significantly beginning May 16.

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According to sources, the government is set to decrease petrol prices by Rs 14 per litre and diesel prices by Rs 10 on May 16 for the next fortnight’s revision.

Last month, the government reduced the price of fuel and high-speed diesel by Rs5.45 and Rs8.42 per fortnight, respectively.

The current fuel price is Rs288.49 per litre, while the HSD price is Rs281.96.

Meanwhile, oil prices fell further on Monday, as signs of sluggish fuel consumption and comments from U.S. Federal Reserve officials dimmed optimism for interest rate reduction, which may slow growth and reduce fuel demand in the world’s largest economy.

Brent crude prices down 25 cents, or 0.3%, to $82.54 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 19 cents, or 0.2%, to $78.07 per barrel.

Oil prices also declined on signals of poor demand, according to ANZ analysts, as gasoline and distillate inventories in the United States increased in the week before the start of the driving season.

Refiners throughout the world are dealing with falling diesel profitability as new refineries increase supply and warm weather in the northern hemisphere and weak economic activity reduce demand.

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