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Rupee registers handsome losses in pre-monetary policy session

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  • In interbank market, rupee fell 2.01 or 0.93%.
  • The local unit closes at 216.66 against dollar.
  • Rupee fell 0.31% against greenback last week.

KARACHI: The Pakistan rupee lost ground against the US dollar Monday ahead of the monetary policy announcement — scheduled for today — and the speculations surrounding the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

In the interbank market, the rupee fell 2.01 or 0.93% against the dollar to close at 216.66, down from Friday’s close of 214.65, according to data from the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).

The greenback traded at 213-214 during the outgoing week. It closed at 213.98 per dollar on Monday and finished at 214.65 on Friday. The rupee fell 0.31% against the greenback last week.

Economist and former adviser to the federal ministry of finance Dr Khaqan Hassan Najeeb said the local unit slipped by Rs2 against the dollar due to political developments and the strengthening of the dollar internationally.

“But we also know the economic situation remains challenging. SBP reserves are weak at $7.8 billion — hardly enough for over a month of imports,” he said.

Non-oil imports are curbed by SBP by rationing the opening of letter of credit (LC), the economist said, adding that oil is already in excess, so oil imports are low.

“Point being, we are operating in a restricted environment, and there would be import needs piling up.”

Getting flows including IMF money, multilateral and bilateral monies, and new foreign direct investment (FDI) is essential to normalise the balance of payments.

“Of-course exports drop and remittance slowdown in July must be looked at carefully.”

Talking to The News, a trader said that apart from forex inflows and outflows, the monetary policy decision will be instrumental to gauge the rupee’s future direction.

Another factor that weakened the rupee was a shortage of greenback in the open market, which moved up the rate of the interbank price of the dollar as well.

The government lifted a ban on the import of non-essential and luxury goods to meet a condition of the IMF ahead of the board’s meeting later this month to revive the loan programme.

However, it announced the imposition of heavy duties on completely built units cars, mobile phones, and electronic appliances to discourage imports.

The market will also evaluate the impact of opening up luxury imports on the rupee, according to traders.

The foreign currency reserves have started to recover. The foreign reserves held by the central bank slightly increased by $67 million or 0.9% to $7.9 billion as of August 12.

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FBR Reforms: PM Leading Reforms Process with Law Minister as Top Priority

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According to Federal Law Minister Azam Nazir Tarar, Prime Minister Shehbaz is leading the entire reform process, and the Federal Government has made the reforms at the Federal Board of Revenue its top priority.

According to the law minister, who was speaking at a press conference in Islamabad, there are presently one billion rupees worth of tax cases pending in court. The parliament has for the first time passed legislation on tax tribunals in an effort to streamline and accelerate the legal process.

He stated that, strictly according to merit, there have already been a few postings and transfers in the FBR and that more are anticipated in the next few days.

Federal Information Minister Atta Tarar, who accompanied the Law Minister, stated that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is spearheading an effective foreign policy through productive meetings with world leaders.

He declared the premier’s trip to Saudi Arabia, where Shehbaz Sharif met with government representatives and corporate executives who indicated interest in investing in Pakistan, a success.

Atta Tarar also declared that a commercial team from Saudi Arabia would be visiting soon.

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Pakistan will host an IMF team in May to discuss a new loan.

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According to sources, negotiations on a fresh loan program have been set between Pakistan and the foreign lender. There will be two stages to the meetings: technical discussions and policy-level conversations.

Prior to the upcoming negotiations, Pakistan must overcome formidable economic obstacles, including the collapse of an IMF-proposed tax amnesty program.

Although it hasn’t worked, the federal government had promised to include 3.1 million merchants in the scheme’s tax net. The recent turnover of senior officials has placed the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) in an atypical position.

The negotiation process with the IMF will be difficult for the new and inexperienced FBR team. The significant drop in FBR’s tax collections would likely worry the IMF.

A day prior, Pakistan obtained the eagerly awaited $1.1 billion last installment from the IMF as a component of the $3 billion standby agreement.

Special Drawing Rights (SDR) 828 million, or $1.1 billion in worth, were given to the SBP “after the successful completion of the second review by the Executive Board of IMF under Stand By Arrangement (SBA),” according to the SBP.

Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb stated Islamabad might obtain a staff-level agreement on the new program by early July. Pakistan is seeking a new, longer-term, and larger IMF loan.

Although Aurangzeb has neglected to specify the specific program in question, Islamabad has stated that it is seeking a loan for a minimum of three years in order to support macroeconomic stability and carry out long-overdue and difficult structural reforms. Should it be approved, Pakistan would receive its 24th IMF bailout.

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In FY2024, SRB tax revenue soars to Rs 185.2 billion.

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In a statement released here, the SRB’s chairman, Wasif Memon, stated that he briefed Sindh Chief Minister Syed Murad Ali Shah about the organization’s revenue collections during their meeting.

In comparison, the tax collection during the same period of the previous financial year 2022–2023 stood at Rs143.3 billion. This achievement represents a 29 percent year-over-year growth, according to the Sindh Revenue Board (SRB), which recorded record revenue of Rs185.2 billion during the first nine months of the fiscal year 2023–2024.

The CM stated at the time that the SRB has shown tenacity and efficiency in revenue collection in spite of facing a number of difficulties, including the general economic downturn.

According to the statement, SRB’s monthly tax collection for April 2024 was Rs18.8 billion, a 23 percent increase from the Rs15.2 billion collected in the same month the previous year.

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