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Monetary policy: SBP maintains status quo, holds interest rate at 15%

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  • SBP hints at tightening policy rate in next meeting scheduled to be held on October 10.
  • Central bank had cumulatively increased rate by 800bps from Sept 2021 to Jul 2022.
  • In today’s meeting, MPC said it was “prudent to take a pause at this stage”.

KARACHI: In line with the market expectations, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Monday maintained the status quo in the interest rate at 15% — the highest since November 2008.

The monetary policy committee (MPC) met under the chair of Deputy Governor Syed Murtaza and reviewed the economic indicators. Despite record high inflation the central bank decided to keep the interest rate unchanged for the next six weeks.

The central bank had cumulatively increased the rate by 800 basis points from September 2021 to July 2022 to control inflation and narrow the current account deficit. However, the central bank kept the interest rate unchanged in today’s meeting for the next six weeks.

The central bank today felt that it was “prudent to take a pause at this stage” as it noted that recent inflation developments are in line with expectations, domestic demand is beginning to moderate and the external position is also showing some improvement due to a lower trade deficit and resumption of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme.

“This pause allows MPC to assess the impact of 800 bps tightening since September and fiscal consolidation planned for FY23,” the monetary policy statement mentioned, adding that it is also in line with recent actions by other emerging markets central banks, who have been holding rates in recent meetings as global growth and commodity prices have slowed.

The committee also noted that in order to contain external pressures and support the rupee going forward, “it is important to contain the current account deficit by delivering the budgeted fiscal consolidation, lowering energy imports through energy conservation measures, and keeping the IMF programme on track.”

Since the last meeting on July 7, MPC noted three key domestic developments, which include:

  • Headline inflation rose further to 24.9% in July, with core inflation also ticking up.
  • Trade balance fell sharply in July and the rupee has reversed course during August, appreciating by around 10% on improved fundamentals and sentiment.
  • IMF’s board meeting will take place on August 29 and is expected to release a further tranche of $1.2 billion, as well as catalysing financing from multilateral and bilateral lenders.

Moreover, the committee also noted that Pakistan has also successfully secured an additional $4 billion from friendly countries over and above its external financing needs in the fiscal year 2022-23. As a result, foreign exchange reserves will be further augmented through the course of the year, helping to reduce external vulnerability.

‘Outlook subject to uncertainty’

In its forward guidance, the central bank hinted at tightening the policy rate in the next meeting scheduled to be held on October 10. 

“MPC intends to remain data-dependent, paying close attention to month-on-month inflation, inflation expectations, developments on the fiscal and external fronts, as well as global commodity prices and interest rate decisions by major central banks,” it said.

The central bank projected that in the coming months, curbing food inflation through supply-side measures that boost output and resolve supply-chain bottlenecks should be a high priority.

‘Inflation to peak in first quarter’

“Looking ahead, headline inflation is projected to peak in the first quarter before declining gradually through the rest of the fiscal year. Thereafter, it is expected to decline sharply and fall to the 5-7% target range by the end of fiscal year 2023-24, supported by the lagged effects of tight monetary and fiscal policies, the normalisation of global commodity prices, and beneficial base effects,” it said.

The central bank said that this baseline outlook “remains subject to uncertainty”, with risks arising from the path of global commodity prices, the domestic fiscal policy stance, and the exchange rate.

“The MPC will continue to carefully monitor developments affecting medium-term prospects for inflation, financial stability, and growth,” it maintained.

‘Good decision’

Terming the decision taken by the central bank as “good”, Alpha Beta Core CEO Khurram Schehzad lauded the central bank for not raising the interest rate anymore.

“Decline in global commodities should give respite to import bill, however, monetary policy tightening and its transition would continue to be under-effective given massive fiscal deficit and governance issues.,” he said, adding that fiscal prudence is key to country’s economic issue.

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PKR on track to become top-performing currency this month: Bloomberg

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  • Pakistani currency rose around 6% this month against dollar.
  • Authorities curb leakages happening through illegal channels. 
  • Crackdown on illegal dollar traders helps local currency. 

The Pakistani rupee is on track to become the top performer globally in September as the caretaker government continues its crackdown on illegal dollar trade, Bloomberg reported Thursday.

The local currency rose around 6% this month against the dollar — an amazing feat despite the Thai baht and South Korean won tumbling against the greenback.

Major currencies lost ground against the dollar on speculations that the US interest rates will stay elevated for longer.

The rupee increased 0.1% to 287.95 per dollar on Thursday, after sliding to a record low of about 307 this month. Pakistan’s currency market will remain closed for the Eid Miladun Nabi holiday on Friday.

“Many leakages were happening through illegal channels of hawala and hundi trade from the open market,” Khurram Schehzad, chief executive officer of Alpha Beta Core Solutions Pvt Ltd, told Bloomberg.

“When the dollar rate reverses everybody, the hoarders, the exporters who are holding their export proceeds, start selling their dollars,” Schehzad said.

The interim rulers have intensified efforts by launching a crackdown on people involved in the illegal dollar trade, allowing the currency to gain some lost ground.

The Federal Investigation Agency, Bloomberg reported, conducted raids across the country and security officials in plainclothes were deployed at money exchanges to monitor dollar sales as part of the crackdown.

Caretaker Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar this week said the rupee’s gain is “fostering optimism for stability.”

For its part, the State Bank of Pakistan raised the capital requirements of smaller exchange companies and ordered large banks to open their own exchange companies to make the retail foreign exchange market more transparent and easier to monitor.

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Pakistan issues tender for LNG cargoes to meet winter demand

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  • Delivery windows are December 7-8 and December 13-14: PLL.
  • Pakistan faces difficulty in procuring LNG amid Russia-Ukraine conflict. 
  • Natural gas supply dropped by 20% over the last year level.


LAHORE: Pakistan has issued a fresh tender to procure liquefied natural gas (LNG) spot cargoes to meet its winter demand after failing to secure supplies from the global market for over a year, The News reported on Thursday.

The Pakistan LNG Limited (PLL), a state-owned company, said on Wednesday it was seeking bids from international suppliers for two LNG cargoes of 140,000 cubic meters each, to be delivered in December at Port Qasim in Karachi.

The delivery windows are December 7-8 and December 13-14, according to the tender document. 

PLL has the mandate to procure LNG on behalf of the federal government to meet the country’s gas requirements through two LNG import terminals with exclusive arrangements for public sector distribution.

The delivery from the volatile spot market has been an uphill task for Pakistan since the start of the war between Ukraine and Russia in February 2022. 

Previous attempts to buy LNG proved futile mainly due to the lukewarm response of sellers. The growing concern of suppliers about the country’s credit risk has been another headache for a country already plagued by chronic energy shortages.

LNG is crucial for Pakistan, where natural gas accounts for over a third of power generation and local gas reserves are insufficient to address growing electricity demand in a country of over 230 million.

In late July this year, PLL failed in its attempt to purchase LNG too after several such attempts made earlier. A bidding company offered winter LNG cargoes at a premium of as high as 30% of the market price. Hence, PLL decided not to purchase the costly gas cargo due to the extremely high cost.

Last week, responding to a query raised by The News, Energy Minister Muhammad Ali said the natural gas supply in the system had dropped by 20% over the last year level. 

He said this was a huge gap, which would ultimately translate into low gas availability for the end consumers.

“The dwindling gas resources simply mean load shedding for the users,” he said, adding that imports of LNG could lead to bridging the gap, although it is a costly option. 

“We are trying to import as much LNG as possible.” However, the spot rate of LNG presently stands at $15 per unit, and Pakistan is selling it to domestic consumers at $1.5 per unit, which is not sustainable.

To meet the demand of the industry, the minister said the government is trying to import maximum cargoes of LNG. 

Responding to a query about the challenges in the import of LNG from the spot market and how to tackle them, minister Ali said Pakistan is facing two challenges on the import front. 

He said the first is the peculiar nature of the LNG trade where the purchase contract is made before the LNG is produced. 

One way to address this challenge, Ali said, is to have long-term buying contracts to ensure smooth gas imports. 

He said the other way is to try to get gas through government-to-government (G2G) arrangements. Besides having gas supplies under long-term contracts, “Pakistan is negotiating to import cargoes through G2G basis to meet winter demand.”

Talking about LNG spot purchases, he recalled that Pakistan did not get any response in June tendering amid high spot rates. 

“We are now contemplating to invite fresh bids for spot buying to ease winter demand. We are trying to minimise gas shortage in days to come.”

Moreover, talking about the second constraint in the import of LNG, which is the low capacity of gas import infrastructure, the minister said that his government wants to run both existing terminals at full capacity. They are also trying to remove hurdles in setting up more LNG terminals in the country.

One of the new terminals should have been established last year, but it was delayed due to litigation. If the third terminal is to be installed, the minister said they want to give a go-ahead to its construction within the tenure of the caretaker government.

According to a report, Pakistan’s liquefied natural gas demand will nearly triple in five years as its production of domestic gas dwindles. 

The South Asian nation will need 25 cargoes of the super-chilled fuel a month by then, from nine a month now. Pakistan has struggled to secure enough LNG to cover its needs after prices surged to an all-time high last year.

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inDrive now available in five more Pakistani cities

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KARACHI: inDrive, a popular ride-hailing service in Pakistan, has now expanded its network to five more cities across Pakistan including Larkana, Kāmoke, Sheikhupura, Hafizabad, and Okara.

In a statement issued by the transport company, the inclusion of these cities reflects inDrive’s dedication to bringing innovative transportation options to both urban centres and suburban areas.

Speaking about the expansion, Senior Business Representative at inDrive Hasan Qureshi said: “We are excited to extend the convenience and reliability of inDrive to residents of Larkana, Kāmoke, Sheikhupura, Hafizabad, and Okara.”

“Our mission is to redefine transportation by providing safe, affordable, and accessible rides to everyone. With this expansion, we are not only enhancing the commuting experience but also contributing to the economic growth and empowerment of these communities.”

PR Manager Sidra Kiran said that their new service offers city residents the convenience of accessing transport from their homes, eliminating the need to search for it. 

“Both drivers and passengers stand to gain significant benefits, including time-saving and the elimination of challenges associated with street hailing. This service addresses issues such as locating rides during odd hours like early mornings or late nights,” she stated. 

She further added: “inDrive ride-hailing presents numerous benefits to drivers in small cities, including flexible opportunities, reduced unemployment, supplemental income, enhanced community connection, and positive contributions to the local economy.”

The launch of the company in these cities would benefit both riders and driver-partners. 

inDrive further said that it remains committed to upholding the highest standards of safety, affordability, customer service, and technological innovation.

inDrive is Pakistan’s premier ride-hailing service and is revolutionising the way people travel. With a commitment to providing safe, affordable, and reliable transportation.

The company allowed riders to connect with nearby drivers with its app.

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