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Monetary policy: SBP maintains status quo, holds interest rate at 15%

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  • SBP hints at tightening policy rate in next meeting scheduled to be held on October 10.
  • Central bank had cumulatively increased rate by 800bps from Sept 2021 to Jul 2022.
  • In today’s meeting, MPC said it was “prudent to take a pause at this stage”.

KARACHI: In line with the market expectations, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Monday maintained the status quo in the interest rate at 15% — the highest since November 2008.

The monetary policy committee (MPC) met under the chair of Deputy Governor Syed Murtaza and reviewed the economic indicators. Despite record high inflation the central bank decided to keep the interest rate unchanged for the next six weeks.

The central bank had cumulatively increased the rate by 800 basis points from September 2021 to July 2022 to control inflation and narrow the current account deficit. However, the central bank kept the interest rate unchanged in today’s meeting for the next six weeks.

The central bank today felt that it was “prudent to take a pause at this stage” as it noted that recent inflation developments are in line with expectations, domestic demand is beginning to moderate and the external position is also showing some improvement due to a lower trade deficit and resumption of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme.

“This pause allows MPC to assess the impact of 800 bps tightening since September and fiscal consolidation planned for FY23,” the monetary policy statement mentioned, adding that it is also in line with recent actions by other emerging markets central banks, who have been holding rates in recent meetings as global growth and commodity prices have slowed.

The committee also noted that in order to contain external pressures and support the rupee going forward, “it is important to contain the current account deficit by delivering the budgeted fiscal consolidation, lowering energy imports through energy conservation measures, and keeping the IMF programme on track.”

Since the last meeting on July 7, MPC noted three key domestic developments, which include:

  • Headline inflation rose further to 24.9% in July, with core inflation also ticking up.
  • Trade balance fell sharply in July and the rupee has reversed course during August, appreciating by around 10% on improved fundamentals and sentiment.
  • IMF’s board meeting will take place on August 29 and is expected to release a further tranche of $1.2 billion, as well as catalysing financing from multilateral and bilateral lenders.

Moreover, the committee also noted that Pakistan has also successfully secured an additional $4 billion from friendly countries over and above its external financing needs in the fiscal year 2022-23. As a result, foreign exchange reserves will be further augmented through the course of the year, helping to reduce external vulnerability.

‘Outlook subject to uncertainty’

In its forward guidance, the central bank hinted at tightening the policy rate in the next meeting scheduled to be held on October 10. 

“MPC intends to remain data-dependent, paying close attention to month-on-month inflation, inflation expectations, developments on the fiscal and external fronts, as well as global commodity prices and interest rate decisions by major central banks,” it said.

The central bank projected that in the coming months, curbing food inflation through supply-side measures that boost output and resolve supply-chain bottlenecks should be a high priority.

‘Inflation to peak in first quarter’

“Looking ahead, headline inflation is projected to peak in the first quarter before declining gradually through the rest of the fiscal year. Thereafter, it is expected to decline sharply and fall to the 5-7% target range by the end of fiscal year 2023-24, supported by the lagged effects of tight monetary and fiscal policies, the normalisation of global commodity prices, and beneficial base effects,” it said.

The central bank said that this baseline outlook “remains subject to uncertainty”, with risks arising from the path of global commodity prices, the domestic fiscal policy stance, and the exchange rate.

“The MPC will continue to carefully monitor developments affecting medium-term prospects for inflation, financial stability, and growth,” it maintained.

‘Good decision’

Terming the decision taken by the central bank as “good”, Alpha Beta Core CEO Khurram Schehzad lauded the central bank for not raising the interest rate anymore.

“Decline in global commodities should give respite to import bill, however, monetary policy tightening and its transition would continue to be under-effective given massive fiscal deficit and governance issues.,” he said, adding that fiscal prudence is key to country’s economic issue.

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The cost of a liter of petroleum increased by much to Rs 8.14.

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Prices for gasoline and high-speed diesel were raised by the government on Monday by Rs4.53 and Rs8.14, respectively, for the upcoming two weeks.

In relation to this, the ministry of finance released a notice.

Diesel now costs Rs 290.38 per litre, while petrol is now priced at Rs 293.94 per liter following the most recent increase.

Additionally, light diesel cost Rs6.54 more per litre, to Rs174.34. A 6.69% increase in price to Rs193.8 per liter was made for kerosene oil.

The impact of the developing Middle East situation and the expanding global market are the main factors contributing to the transformation.

Before the most recent spike, the price of gasoline and HSD had risen by almost $4 and $4.50 per barrel, respectively, on the global market during the previous two weeks.

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Finance Minister Aurangzeb claims that Pakistan and the IMF are talking about a new multibillion-dollar initiative.

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The South Asian country is drawing to a close a $3 billion loan program with the International Monetary Fund that lasted nine months and was intended to address a balance-of-payments crisis that had put it in danger of defaulting last summer.

Pakistan has started negotiations for a new multi-year IMF loan program for “billions” of dollars, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said in a Washington interview, with the final $1.1 billion tranche of that arrangement likely to be approved later this month.

Aurangzeb, a former banker who started his job last month, stated, “The market confidence, the market sentiment is in much, much better shape this fiscal year.”

“We really started talking with the Fund this week to get into a larger and longer program for that reason,” he continued.

A representative for the IMF informed AFP that the organization is “currently focused on the completion of the current Stand-by Agreement program,” which is a nine-month program that is expected to be finished soon.

The spokesperson went on, “The Fund staff is prepared to start initial talks on a successor program as the new government has expressed interest in a new program.”

“Third-year curriculum”
Aurangzeb’s journey to Washington will also include attendance at the IMF and World Bank’s spring meetings, which begin in earnest on Tuesday and have two distinct goals: supporting the world’s most indebted countries and aiding governments in the fight against climate change.

The IMF’s revised World Economic Outlook will be released to coincide with the start of the meetings, which bring together academics, representatives from the private sector, civil society, finance and development ministries, and central bankers to debate the state of the global economy.

Allegations of election tampering plagued Pakistan’s February 2019 elections, resulting in the imprisonment and disqualification of opposition leader Imran Khan and the persecution of his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party.

The unstable alliance that surfaced, headed by Shehbaz Sharif, is currently charged with bringing about an economic recovery through the imposition of several controversial austerity measures.

Aurangzeb stated, “I do believe that we will be requesting for a three year program.” “Because in my opinion, that is what we need to help carry out the structural reform agenda.”

He went on, “I do think we’ll start getting into the contours of that discussion by the time we get to the second or third week of May.”

Keeping the US-China rivalry in check
Pakistan is in a difficult situation as the two nations have started an expensive trade war because of its strong economic ties to both China and the United States.

When asked how the Sharif government intends to handle its commercial relationships with the two largest economies in the world, Aurangzeb responded, “From our perspective it has to be a and-and discussion.”

“The United States is our biggest trading partner, and it has consistently provided us with support and assistance with our investments,” he stated. Therefore, that relationship will always be extremely important to Pakistan.

He was alluding to the nearly 1,860-mile-long China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which was built to offer China access to the Arabian Sea, when he added, “On the other side, a lot of investment, especially in infrastructure, came through CPEC.”

According to Aurangzeb, Pakistan has a “very good opportunity” to participate in the trade war on par with nations like Vietnam, whose exports to the US have increased significantly as a result of tariffs placed on some Chinese items.

He stated, “We already have a few examples of that working.” “However, we must truly scale it up.”

reform initiative

Pakistan is currently engaged in a privatization campaign to sell off its underperforming state-owned businesses (SOEs) as part of the structural reform package agreed upon by the previous government.

The nation’s flag carrier, Pakistan International Airlines, is the first SOE on the list.

In regards to potential bidder interest, Aurangzeb stated, “we will find out in the next month or so.”

He said, “Our goal is to proceed with that privatization and see it through to completion by the end of June.”

Other businesses may soon follow if the government’s privatization of the PIA proceeds smoothly.

He declared, “We’re building a whole pipeline,” and added, “We want to really accelerate that over the next couple of years.”

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Owners of oil tankers stop the provision of fuel in favour of their demands.

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The Association declared on Monday that, in response to what it deemed to be an “unfair” measurement by the relevant authorities, gasoline delivery will stay suspended as of Tuesday.

According to the Oil Tankers Owners’ Association, they attempted to resolve their complaints with Deputy Commissioner Islamabad and Pakistan State Oil (PSO), but to no effect.

The Oil Tankers Owners Association has yelled slogans in support of their demand while parking their containers in the PSO depot.

The owners of oil tankers declared that they would not end their strike until their demands were met, accusing the administration of being to blame for the fuel crisis.

The association requested that the authorities abide by their requests, which included filling under a metered system. It further stated that the deal reached on February 20 had been broken by the authorities.

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