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SBP’s Monetary Policy Committee to meet on Nov 25

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  • The State Bank of Pakistan will announce its new monetary policy on November 25.
  • The Monetary Policy Committee will meet on Friday at SBP Karachi.
  • Last month, the SBP decided to leave its key interest rate unchanged at 15% for the next seven weeks.

KARACHI: The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) will announce its new monetary policy after a meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on Friday.

In a statement, the central bank says, “The Monetary Policy Committee of SBP will meet on November 25 at SBP Karachi to decide about the Monetary Policy. Later on, SBP will issue the Monetary Policy Statement through a press release on the same day.”

SBP leaves interest rate unchanged

Last month, the SBP had decided to leave its key interest rate unchanged at 15% for the next seven weeks.

“The committee was of the view that based on currently available information, the existing monetary policy stance strikes an appropriate balance between managing inflation and maintaining growth in the wake of the floods,” the central bank in a thread shared on Twitter.

The MPC meeting was the first after the start of SBP Governor Jameel Ahmad and Finance Minister Ishaq Dar assumed charge.

The decision to maintain a status quo was in line with Dar’s old recipe of running a controlled economy, under which he would like to have an easy monetary policy.

The SBP hds increased the rate by a cumulative 800 basis points in 11 months (September 2021 to July 2022) to 15%.

The interest rate and flexible rupee-dollar parity are the two major tools available to central banks all over the world to control inflation readings and give direction to the economic trajectory in their respective countries.

Monetary and inflation outlook

The MPC stated that in line with slowing economic activity, private sector credit has seen a net retirement of Rs 0.7 billion so far this fiscal year, compared to an expansion of Rs 62.6 billion during the same period last year.

“This decline in credit mainly reflects a retirement of working capital loans and a sharp fall in consumer finance,” the statement read.

The SBP said that looking ahead, the supply shock to food prices from the floods is expected to put additional pressure on headline inflation in the coming months.

Nevertheless, headline inflation is still projected to gradually decline through the rest of the fiscal year, particularly in the second half.

Thereafter, it should fall towards the upper range of the 5-7% medium-term target by the end of the fiscal year 2023-24.

A continuation of prudent monetary policy and orderly movements in the rupee should help contain core inflation going forward. At the same time, curbing food inflation through administrative measures to resolve supply-chain bottlenecks and any necessary imports should be a high priority, the central bank noted.

In line with the above-mentioned factors, the MPC will continue to carefully monitor developments affecting medium-term prospects for inflation, financial stability, and growth.

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In a first for history, PSX crosses the 77,000 milestone.

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At 77,213.31, the benchmark KSE-100 hit an all-time high, up 1,005.15, or 1.32%, from the previous close of 76,208.16.

The government’s readiness to seal an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) following the budget was cited by analysts as the reason for the upward trend.

Experts anticipate that in an attempt to bolster its position for a fresh bailout agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the budget for the fiscal year ending in June 2025 would set aggressive fiscal goals.

Budget for Pakistan, 2024–2025
Pakistan’s budget for the fiscal year 2024–25, with a total expenditure of Rs18.877 trillion, was presented on Wednesday by Minister of Finance and Revenue Muhammad Aurangzeb.

The Finance Minister, Muhammad Aurangzeb, outlined the budget highlights. He stated that the GDP growth target for the fiscal year 2024–25 is set at 3.6 percent, while the inflation rate is anticipated to stay at 12 percent.

He stated that while the primary surplus is anticipated to be 1.0 percent of GDP during the review period, the budget deficit to GDP is forecast to be 6.9 percent over the period under review.

According to the minister, tax income collection increased by 38% in the current fiscal year, and the province will receive Rs7,438 billion. The Federal Board of income expects to earn Rs12,970 billion in revenue for the upcoming fiscal year.

In contrast to the federal government’s projected net income of Rs9,119 billion, he stated that the federation’s non-tax revenue projections are set at Rs3,587 billion.

The federal government’s total outlays are projected to be Rs18,877 billion, with interest payments accounting for the remaining Rs9,775 billion.

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Pakistan currently has $14.38 billion in foreign exchange reserves.

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Pakistan’s commercial banks’ reserves, which stood at $5.28 billion at the conclusion of the week ending on June 7, rose by US$174 million, according to a central bank statement.

Reserving US$6.2 million less, the SBP now has US$9.10 billion in reserves. The causes for the decline in the reserves it had were not disclosed by the central bank.

The SBP released a statement that stated, “SBP reserves decreased by US$ 6 million to US$ 9,103.3 million during the week ended on 07-June-2024.”

The State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) foreign exchange reserves were reduced by US$ 63 million as a result of repaying external debt, with the reserves standing at US$ 9.093 billion as of earlier on June 6.

The central bank spokesperson said in a statement that as of the week that concluded on May 31, the nation’s total liquid foreign reserves were $14.31 billion.

In terms of net foreign reserves, commercial banks have US$ 5.22 billion of the overall foreign reserves, according to the SBP.

SBP reserves dropped by US$ 63 million to US$ 9,093.7 million during the week that ended on May 24, 2024, according to the announcement.

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In the local market, the price of gold plummets to Rs240,700/tola.

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Gold with a 24-karat purity level has dropped by Rs1200/tola on the local market.

Each tola of 24-karat gold is now selling for Rs240,700, with a further drop of Rs1029 bringing the price of 10 kilos of gold to Rs206,361. These figures are courtesy of the All Sarafa and Jewelers Association.

Meanwhile, after a $2 decline on the global market, one ounce of gold will be valued $2315.

A tola of gold was worth Rs 600 more on Wednesday.

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