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Rupee breaks losing streak against dollar, makes minor gains

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KARACHI: Pakistan’s rupee Tuesday turned the losing tide on the dollar, bouncing off eight-session lows, dealers said.

The local currency gained Re0.24 or 0.11% against the greenback in the inter-bank market to close at 223.42. That compared to Monday’s close of Rs223.66

The country’s currency has shed Rs2 or 0.9% versus US currency during the last eight trading sessions. 

Analysts said that even the improvement in the country’s current account balance failed to cheer up the rupee. The current account deficit fell 68% to $567 million in October.

The market sentiment is negatively impacted by Pakistan’s growing risk of default on its obligations to repay foreign debt, the delay in IMF-Pakistan negotiations, and the absence of a timeframe regarding incoming financing from friendly countries, according to dealers.

The current account gap has reduced, but exports and remittances have taken a serious hit.

Inflows have dried down, and traders are keenly looking out for World Bank to send in aid money, so crucial at this time.

The general consensus in the money market remains downbeat.

However, positive news from the political and inflows front was seen setting the rupee’s direction down the line.

Dollar shortage

Zafar Paracha, Chairman Exchange Association of Pakistan (ECAP), sees the rupee languishing in the near future owing to multiple reasons.

“First off, there’s a shortage of dollars in the country. We have more buyers than sellers in the market,” Paracha said highlighting the dollar demand-supply issues.

He said the country was in dire need of big inflows and “as long as the international and bilateral lenders do not deliver on their commitments, the rupee is unlikely to recover. 

“One of the reasons that have stalled these inflows was the ongoing political uncertainty in the country.” he said adding, “While IMF is also not giving us any leverage and is tightening its conditions, adding to the economic woes”.

Another reason was that remittances from overseas workers were continuously falling, which was an upshot of the global recession. 

“This phenomenon has weighed on the savings of expats, resulting in lower amounts of foreign currency being sent home,” the ECAP official added.

Paracha also raised alarms over the thin foreign exchange stash with the central bank, fearing more fiscal pressure as deadlines for the repayments of maturing external debt and interest expenses were approaching fast.

The money dealers’ association leader pointed out that the grey market was also biting into the legal one.

“People are diverting to the illegal channels as they are offering better rates, which also need to be addressed,” Paracha said.

Dollar stable

The dollar steadied on Tuesday after rallying the previous day as investors flocked to the safe haven currency on worries over China’s COVID flare-ups, while bitcoin came under pressure after fears of fresh contagion from the collapse of crypto exchange FTX. 

The euro was up 0.14% to $1.0258 after an 0.8%loss on Monday, the sterling rose 0.19% to $1.1838, partially reversing its 0.6% fall, and the dollar was at 141.86 yen down 0.18% after a 1.2% gain.

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An investigation was “launched” into PTA’s inability to get Rs. 78 billion back from Telcos

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The PTA has reportedly been instructed to reply to NAB by July 29. According to the enquiry, the national exchequer has suffered losses as a result of the delay in collecting dues.

The PTA has been asked to provide NAB with information about any pertinent records, court proceedings, and overdue bills. The NAB Karachi has summoned the PTA officials to appear with all pertinent documentation.

All of the principle sum has to be paid by the LDI firms, according to sources. But due to judicial stay orders, the collection of dues has been impeded.

These sources further state that a steering group has been established by the Ministry of IT to supervise the issue of dues recovery.

In a previous event, the tariffs levied on importing cell phones from outside were clarified by the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA).

Contrary to what some internet reports claim, PTA clarified in response to recent news regarding the tariffs on mobile phone imports that there hasn’t been a formal decision to remove these levies in Pakistan.

the PTA.Pakistanis living abroad will be the only ones free from these levies, according to the PTA. A SIM card can be inserted and the phone restarted to temporarily register a device for non-PTA mobile subscribers.

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Weekly inflation in Pakistan increased by 0.17 percent.

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The SPI for the week under review in the aforementioned group was reported at 321.95 points, as opposed to 321.40 points during the previous week, according to the PBS statistics.

The SPI for the combined consumption group saw a 20.09 percent increase in the week under review compared to the same week the previous year.

The weekly SPI includes 51 necessary items for every spending group and 17 urban areas, with a base year of 2015–16 = 100.

The SPI for the lowest consumption category, which is up to Rs 17,732, grew by 0.08 percent from 311.97 points to 312.22 points this past week.

0.18 percent,The index of consumption for the lowest consumption groups, which are Rs 17,732-22,888, Rs 22,889-29,517, Rs 29,518-44,175 and above Rs 44,175; increased by 0.13 percent, 0.15 percent, 0.18 and 0.19 percent, respectively.

Nineteen (37.25%) of the fifty-one commodities had price increases over the week, eight (15.69%) had price decreases, and twenty-four (47.06%) had unchanged pricing.

On a weekly basis, the following commodities saw significant price decreases: tomatoes (9.19%), onions (2.14%), LPG (1.04%), bananas (0.53%), wheat flour (0.35%), potatoes (0.17%), pulse masoor (0.16%), and bread (0.05%).

Chicken (4.80%), garlic (2.01%), pulse gramme (1.87%), eggs (1.71%), beef (0.93%), gur (0.89%), pulse moong (0.84%), fresh milk (0.45%), firewood (0.23%), and cigarettes (0.12%) were among the items whose average prices increased significantly week over week.

The commodities that saw a year-over-year decline were: wheat flour (31.75%); cooking oil (13.44%); vegetable ghee 2.5 kg (10.42%); vegetable ghee 1 kg (9.85%); mustard oil (8.33%); eggs (5.82%); rice basmati broken (4.15%); and tea package (2.52%).

Gas prices for Q1 (570.00%), onions (96.01%), pulse gramme (40.39%), powered milk (39.11%), garlic (34.61%), pulse moong (29.77%), men’s sandals (25.01%), beef (23.52%), salt powder (23.28%), pulse mash (22.50%), and energy saver (17.96%) were among the commodities whose average prices increased year over year.

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The price of gold has drastically dropped in Pakistan.

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As per the All-Pakistan Gems and Jewellers Sarafa Association (APGJSA), the cost of 24-karat gold per tola decreased by Rs 2,300, standing at Rs 250,500.

A kilogramme of 24-karat gold costing Rs1,972 less at the local market, making it worth Rs2114,763. Ten grammes of 22-karat gold had a price decrease to Rs196,866 as well.

After losing a significant $43 during the day, the rate per ounce of gold on the international market also decreased. It currently stands at $2,370.

On Thursday, the price of 24-karat silver also experienced a decline, falling by Rs60 to settle at Rs2,860 petal.

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