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Rupee’s woeful ride continues, depreciates to settle at 223.66 against dollar

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  • Rupee value has cumulatively decreased by 1.01% in past seven working days.
  • Local unit settles at Rs223.66 against the dollar in interbank market today.
  • Analysts say demand for imports is strong which is also increasing the parity as well.

KARACHI: Pakistan’s rupee continued to sustain losses against the US dollar for the seventh successive session, settling with a depreciation of 0.22% in the interbank on Monday, as investors remained concerned over the ninth review of Pakistan’s economy by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The currency lost 0.22% (or Re0.49) to close at Rs223.66 against the US dollar in the interbank market compared to Friday’s close of Rs223.17. 

Meanwhile, in the open market, it settled at Rs231 losing Rs1.5 against the greenback compared to Friday’s rate of Rs229.5.

Analysts believe that the following issues have resulted in the rupee sliding, these include:

  • Uncertainty over the ninth review by IMF
  • Growing risk of defaulting on its obligations to repay foreign debt despite Finance Minister Ishaq Dar’s reassurance
  • Absence of a timeframe regarding incoming financing from Saudi Arabia and China 

The rupee has cumulatively decreased by 1.01% (or Rs2.24) in the past seven working days, compared to the November 10 close at Rs221.42, according to the State Bank of Pakistan’s data.

Speaking to Geo.tv, Pakistan-Kuwait Head of Research Samiullah Tariq said demand is higher than supply, and US interest rates have increased which has dried up liquidity.

Therefore, the demand for imports is strong which is also increasing the parity as well.

Globally, the US dollar was firmly higher against major currencies on Monday, as rising COVID-19 cases in China led to new restrictions and weighed on global investor sentiment.

The dollar was up 0.5% against Japan’s yen at 141.07, its highest since November 11. Meanwhile, the euro was 0.62% lower against the greenback at $1.026.

The dollar index, which tracks the currency against major peers, has slid more than 6% from a 20-year high in October. Last month, a fall in the US inflation rate has driven bets that the US Federal Reserve will slow down its interest rate hikes.

Business

See the new rates when Pak Suzuki announces a significant decrease in car costs.

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The costs of cars on the Swift models from Pakistan Suzuki Motor Company have been reduced by Rs. 710,000.

According to a notice from the corporation, the new pricing will take effect on May 1, 2024, and it is a reaction to the state of the market.

The Swift GL MT model is now available for Rs 4,336,000, a decrease of Rs 85,000, according to the notification about the changed pricing.

After dropping down Rs159,000 from its previous price of Rs4,719,000, the Swift GL CVT is now available for Rs4,560,000.

With a price drop of Rs710,000, or Rs5,429,000, to Rs4,719,000, Swift GLX CVT saw the most price decline.

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Pakistan’s $1.1 billion loan tranche is approved by the IMF board.

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The cash is the third and last installment of a $3 billion standby agreement with the international lender that it obtained to prevent a sovereign default last year and that expires this month.

Following the discussion of Pakistan’s request for the release of funds at today’s IMF Executive Board meeting in Washington, the final tranche was authorized.

Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) came to a staff-level agreement last month about the last assessment of a $3 billion loan package.

The total amount of $1.9 billion that the nation has received thus far is divided into two tranches: $1.2 billion in July and $700 million in January 2024.

According to Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, Islamabad could have a staff-level agreement on the new program by early July. Pakistan is asking the IMF for a fresh, longer-term loan.

In order to support macroeconomic stability and carry out long-overdue and difficult structural changes, Islamabad says it is seeking a loan for a minimum of three years; however, Aurangzeb has reluctant to specify the specific program in question. If approved, it would be Pakistan’s 24th IMF bailout.

See Also: Pakistan formally requests new IMF assistance

The event transpired on the day following Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s meeting with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, during which he reaffirmed the government’s resolve to restart Pakistan’s economy.

During the meeting held in conjunction with the World Economic Forum Special Meeting, the prime minister announced that he had given his finance minister, Muhammad Aurangzeb, strict instructions to implement structural reforms, maintain strict fiscal discipline, and pursue prudent policies that would guarantee macroeconomic stability and continuous economic growth.

Georgieva was commended by him for helping Pakistan obtain the $3 billion Standby Arrangement (SBA) from the IMF last year, which was about to be finalized.

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Macroeconomic circumstances in Pakistan have improved.

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By virtue of the Board’s resolution, SDR 828 million, or roughly $1.1 billion, can be disbursed immediately, increasing the total amount disbursed under the arrangement to SDR 2.250 billion, or roughly $3 billion.

After being adopted by the Executive Board on July 12, 2023, Pakistan’s nine-month SBA effectively served as a framework for financial support from both bilateral and multilateral partners, as well as a policy anchor to resolve imbalances both domestically and internationally.

According to the official announcement from the IMF, Pakistan’s macroeconomic conditions have improved during the program. Given the ongoing recovery in the second half of the fiscal year, growth of two percent is anticipated in FY24.

With a primary surplus of 1.8 percent of GDP in the first half of the fiscal year 2024—well ahead of expectations and putting Pakistan on track to meet its target primary surplus of 0.4 percent of GDP by the end of the fiscal year—the country’s fiscal condition is still strengthening.

Even while it is still high, inflation is still falling and should end up at about 20 percent by the end of June if data-driven and adequately tight monetary policy is continued.

In contrast to 11.4 per cent last year, the IMF predicted in an official statement that Pakistan’s tax collection and grants will stay at 12.5% of GDP in FY2024.

After remaining at 7.8% of GDP in FY2023, the deficit is predicted to stay at 7.5% of GDP in FY2024.

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