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Rupee completes one-month winning streak against US dollar

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  • Military-backed crackdown helped local currency to gain against dollar.
  • On Sept 5, Pakistani rupee tumbled to 307.10 against the dollar.
  • Rupee expected to strengthen to 280 to the dollar: analyst.

The Pakistan rupee’s winning streak against the US dollar has completed one month today (Thursday) with the local currency gaining 23.50 against the greenback since September 5 in the interbank market — thanks to the military-backed crackdown against currency smugglers.

The local currency is hovering at 283.60 per dollar in the interbank market today, gaining further 1.8 against its counterpart.

On September 5, the Pakistani rupee tumbled to 307.10 against the dollar in the interbank market. Since then, the Pakistani rupee has been on a recovery after the military-backed crackdown launched a crackdown on currency smugglers, hoarders, and speculators.

A day earlier, the rupee closed at 284.68 to the dollar, 0.37% stronger than Tuesday’s close of 285.72.

According to analysts, the rupee kept increasing as a result of a decline in the black market’s demand for dollars.

“In my view, PKR appreciated against the dollar as illegal demand vanished after the crackdown,” said Samiullah Tariq, the head of research at Pak-Kuwait Investment Company.

In the days to come, Tariq thinks that the rupee would strengthen to 280 to the dollar. Mustafa Mustansir, the head of research at Taurus Securities said the main reason for the rise in the value of the rupee is the crackdown on the grey markets and illegal hoarding of dollars.

“Plus, we believe that the illegal flow of dollars to Afghanistan has also stopped,” Mustansir said. “Further, the restructuring of the exchange companies sector by the SBP has also had a significant impact. Overall, these measures have led to heavy selling of dollars in the open market. I think the rally will continue,” he added.

The rupee’s near-term outlook is expected to be positive, but its medium-term future course will be determined by the state of the country’s economic fundamentals, especially the conclusion of the International Monetary Fund’s review of the stand-by arrangement (SBA) and the position of the foreign exchange reserves. In late October or early November 2023, there will likely be an IMF review.

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Pakistan’s gold prices are still declining; see the most recent

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The price of 10-gram gold reduced by Rs943 to settle at Rs207,733, while the price of gold dropped by Rs1200 to close at Rs242,300 a tola, according to the Sindh Sarafa Jewellers Association.

In the global market, the price of the precious metal fell by $10 to $2,349 per ounce, resulting in losses.

At 04:48 GMT, the spot price of gold had dropped by 0.2% to $2,354.77 per ounce. In the previous session, prices reached a two-week high.

American gold futures dropped 0.6% to $2,361.

Spot silver decreased by 0.4% to $28.03 per ounce, while palladium remained steady at $978.03 and platinum decreased by 0.1% to $992.89.

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Pakistan and the IMF begin talks for a new loan.

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Pakistan is requesting a $6 to $8 billion bailout package from the international lender over the next three to four years to address its financial troubles.

A mission team led by Nathan Porter, the IMF’s Mission Chief in Pakistan, is meeting with a Pakistani delegation led by Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb.

According to sources familiar with the situation, Islamabad may face more difficult options, such as raising power and gas bills.

Mr. Aurganzeb informed the IMF team that the country’s economy has improved as a result of the IMF loan package, and Islamabad is ready to sign a new loan programme to further develop.

The IMF mission expressed satisfaction with Islamabad’s efforts to revive the country’s struggling economy.

The IMF praised Pakistan’s economic growth in its staff report earlier this week, but warned that the outlook remains challenging, with very high downside risks.

The country nearly avoided collapse last summer, and its $350 billion economy has stabilized since the end of the last IMF program, with inflation falling to roughly 17% in April from a record high of 38% last May.

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Petrol prices are likely to drop significantly beginning May 16.

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According to sources, the government is set to decrease petrol prices by Rs 14 per litre and diesel prices by Rs 10 on May 16 for the next fortnight’s revision.

Last month, the government reduced the price of fuel and high-speed diesel by Rs5.45 and Rs8.42 per fortnight, respectively.

The current fuel price is Rs288.49 per litre, while the HSD price is Rs281.96.

Meanwhile, oil prices fell further on Monday, as signs of sluggish fuel consumption and comments from U.S. Federal Reserve officials dimmed optimism for interest rate reduction, which may slow growth and reduce fuel demand in the world’s largest economy.

Brent crude prices down 25 cents, or 0.3%, to $82.54 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 19 cents, or 0.2%, to $78.07 per barrel.

Oil prices also declined on signals of poor demand, according to ANZ analysts, as gasoline and distillate inventories in the United States increased in the week before the start of the driving season.

Refiners throughout the world are dealing with falling diesel profitability as new refineries increase supply and warm weather in the northern hemisphere and weak economic activity reduce demand.

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