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PSX starts 2024 in green as KSE-100 surges by over 2,000 points

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KARACHI: The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) started the new year on a positive note as it began trading in the green zone with a surge of over 2,000 points. 

The benchmark KSE-100 index on Monday reached 64,475.21 points, up by 2,024.17 points or 3.24% from the previous close of 62,451.04 points. 

KSE-100 index. — PSX website
KSE-100 index. — PSX website 

Head of Equities at Intermarket Securities, Raza Jafri, attributes the surge to energy stocks on expectations of dividend payouts as the result season approaches with the government looking serious about addressing circular debt.

“There are also expectations of greater institutional flows into equities with monetary easing expected to commence within the next few months,” Jafri told Geo.tv

On the last trading session of 2023, stocks gained 0.64% as investors cheered the rise in foreign exchange reserves and the inflow of loans from multilateral lenders, The News reported on Saturday citing analysts. 

The market was buoyed by the central bank’s announcement that its foreign exchange reserves increased by $853 million to $7.8 billion in the week ending December 22, thanks to financial support from bilateral and multilateral sources.

‘Best year since 2010’

Meanwhile, the PSX capped its best year since 2010 as the KSE-100 index ended 2023 with a 55% gain, the third-best among global markets in local currency terms. 

The index also rose 24% in dollar terms, outpacing the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which gained 18%.

Looking ahead, analysts were optimistic about the prospects of the market in 2024, as they expect the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) program to continue, the currency to remain stable, the interest rates to decline, the earnings to grow, and the valuations to improve.

“We expect the local bourse to remain in the green zone,” stated brokerage Arif Habib Ltd. 

“Moreover, we expect an influx of fresh liquidity amid the January effect. Moreover, the scrips are trading at attractive valuations, and are expected to further boost positive sentiment at the index.”

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Pakistan have initiated discussions at the policy level.

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Pakistan will commence policy-level discussions today (Monday), as financially-strained Islamabad aims to secure another agreement with the Washington-based lender while satisfying all the stringent requirements associated with it.

The negotiations will primarily focus on deciding the magnitude of the upcoming IMF programme, establishing the corresponding terms and conditions, and defining the objectives and aims for the next budget.

Simultaneously, both parties will establish the macroeconomic objectives for the upcoming fiscal year’s budget. The IMF is determined to enforce policies such as monetary tightening (raising interest rates), increasing energy tariffs, adopting a market-based exchange rate, and implementing privatisation.

The expectation is that both parties will conclude the negotiations during the current week and finalise a staff-level agreement, which will then be subject to the ultimate approval of the IMF Executive Board.

A significant number of experts argue that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has proposed a misguided policy of increasing interest rates, which has severely damaged the economy of the country. Consequently, it is imperative for the State Bank of Pakistan to promptly initiate a cycle of reducing interest rates.

They believe that the existing monetary policy will result in an overwhelming accumulation of debt and taxes, which will hinder the revival of economic activity and investment. This outcome has already been evident to all.

Despite the prevailing cost of living crisis in Pakistan, the IMF is insisting on raising the minimum energy bill, citing its necessity in managing the escalating circular debt.

However, due to the stringent conditions imposed by the IMF and Pakistan’s inability to address the issues in the energy sector, as well as the nature of agreements made with independent power producers (IPPs), the country is unable to benefit from the decline in global prices of solar panels and related equipment.

Further information: Should I choose solar power or not? The inefficiency of the energy sector provides a compelling reason to reconsider the solar energy policy.

Pakistan and the MF initiated discussions on both the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and climate funding. Pakistan is seeking a larger and more extensive bailout package to stabilise and revitalise its economy.

According to sources, it has been stated that the two parties have reached an agreement on the significant objectives outlined for the forthcoming budget, which encompass the punctual settlement of foreign debt obligations.

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Pakistan’s gold prices are still declining; see the most recent

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The price of 10-gram gold reduced by Rs943 to settle at Rs207,733, while the price of gold dropped by Rs1200 to close at Rs242,300 a tola, according to the Sindh Sarafa Jewellers Association.

In the global market, the price of the precious metal fell by $10 to $2,349 per ounce, resulting in losses.

At 04:48 GMT, the spot price of gold had dropped by 0.2% to $2,354.77 per ounce. In the previous session, prices reached a two-week high.

American gold futures dropped 0.6% to $2,361.

Spot silver decreased by 0.4% to $28.03 per ounce, while palladium remained steady at $978.03 and platinum decreased by 0.1% to $992.89.

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Pakistan and the IMF begin talks for a new loan.

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Pakistan is requesting a $6 to $8 billion bailout package from the international lender over the next three to four years to address its financial troubles.

A mission team led by Nathan Porter, the IMF’s Mission Chief in Pakistan, is meeting with a Pakistani delegation led by Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb.

According to sources familiar with the situation, Islamabad may face more difficult options, such as raising power and gas bills.

Mr. Aurganzeb informed the IMF team that the country’s economy has improved as a result of the IMF loan package, and Islamabad is ready to sign a new loan programme to further develop.

The IMF mission expressed satisfaction with Islamabad’s efforts to revive the country’s struggling economy.

The IMF praised Pakistan’s economic growth in its staff report earlier this week, but warned that the outlook remains challenging, with very high downside risks.

The country nearly avoided collapse last summer, and its $350 billion economy has stabilized since the end of the last IMF program, with inflation falling to roughly 17% in April from a record high of 38% last May.

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