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Pakistan’s debt, liabilities climb 23.7% in first quarter of FY23

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  • Total debt and liabilities climb by Rs12 trillion.
  • Total amount has reached a whopping Rs62.46 trillion.
  • Analysts cite delay in IMF tranche, rupee depreciation.

KARACHI: Pakistan’s total debt and liabilities have climbed by Rs12 trillion or 23.7% in the first quarter of the current fiscal year, with analysts saying a delay in loan tranche from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and devaluation of the rupee pushed the numbers up significantly.

The debt and liabilities stood at Rs62.46 trillion in July-September FY2023, compared with Rs50.49 trillion in the same period of last fiscal year, the central bank data showed on Wednesday.

The country’s debt rose 24.7% to Rs59.37 trillion, while total liabilities increased 23% to Rs3.56 trillion.

Fahad Rauf, head of research at Ismail Iqbal Securities said the increase in the debt was mainly coming from external sources. “Mostly the IMF loan tranche of $1.2 billion and the impact of the rupee depreciation on overall external debt.”

The government’s domestic debt increased by 18.7% to Rs31.40 trillion. The foreign debt stood at Rs17.99 trillion in July-September FY2023, 30.2% up from a year earlier, according to the figures from the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).

Total external debt and liabilities jumped 33.4% to Rs28.94 trillion.

“Managing debt obligations is one of the biggest challenges facing the government,” said Mustafa Mustansir, head of research at Taurus Securities.

He said debt servicing was one of the reasons for the rise in the country’s debt, including the rising fiscal and external obligations. “The rupee depreciation affects external borrowing costs. Similarly, local borrowing costs rise when the policy rate increases.”

The State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) data also showed that public debt fell to Rs49.4 trillion at the end of September from Rs49.5 trillion a month ago. The debt rose by Rs9.1 trillion or 22.7% year-on-year in September.

Pakistan’s five-year credit default swap (CDS), the cost of insuring exposure to the country’s sovereign debt, surged to 7,550 basis points (bps) on Tuesday, up 1,929 bps from Monday’s close, according to data from Arif Habib Limited.

During the current week, the government’s CDS level remained high on investors’ concerns that the country might not fulfil its commitment to repay creditors $1 billion because the Sukuk is set to mature on December 5, 2022.

“Pakistan will likely make payment on maturity as it is in the IMF programme,” according to an analyst.

Complications, concerns

However, there are concerns about the conclusion of the ninth review of the IMF’s bailout package.

Although the date has not yet been set, the IMF staff mission is anticipated in Islamabad by the end of the current month because the Fund needs Pakistan to make necessary modifications first.

The government is requesting some exceptions on performance criteria due to flood losses and the Fund’s insistence on maintaining the agreed tax-to-GDP ratio of at least 11%.

The delay in the IMF’s review is making foreign investors more anxious.

The situation seems more complicated as the country is facing many difficulties, including political unpredictability, threats to exports and remittances as a result of the global economic recession, and significant gross financing requirements in the years to come.

“These risks alongside rating downgrades have worsened the perception among investors. Hence the increase in default spreads,” the analysts said.

The country’s external debt and liabilities inched down to $126.9 billion as of September 30, 2022, from $127 billion a year ago.

Due to the repayment of foreign debt, the nation is anticipated to experience significant potential outflows during the current quarter, which might put pressure on both the foreign currency reserves and the currency.

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SIFC-Assisted OGDCL Commences Gas Production in Uch Every day, OGDCL contributes 5 million SCF to the national grid.

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The chronic gas deficit is being addressed by Oil & Gas Development Company Limited, which produces 5 million standard cubic feet of gas each day.

In the Uch region of the Dera Bugti District of Balochistan, Oil & Gas Development Company Limited has started producing gas with the assistance of the Special Investment Facilitation Council.

The company used its technological abilities to drill a well and successfully find gas at a depth of 1,345 meters.

An improvement in the energy industry is the company’s enhanced financial performance, which has resulted in a profit of 41.02 billion rupees.

In order to promote sustainable growth and strengthen national energy security, Oil & Gas Growth Company Limited is still committed to growing production.

Together with the Special Investment Facilitation Council, OGDCL’s strategic initiatives are essential to the energy sector’s future.

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The KSE-100 Index surpasses 102,000 points as the PSX begins the week on a high note.

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For the first time in recent memory, the benchmark KSE-100 Index broke beyond the 102,000 point level, kicking off the new trading week on a high note for the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX).

The index rose 835 points as of the morning session, hitting a new high of 102,192 points with an intraday peak of 102,288 points.

After a strong close to the previous week, when the index closed at 101,357 points, the PSX has continued its recent bullish performance with this upward trajectory.

Growing investor optimism has propelled the market’s rally, which has been supported by improved macroeconomic conditions, declining bond yields, and the ongoing flood of foreign capital into stocks.

The PSX has been strong because of a number of important elements. Since May 2024, the State Bank of Pakistan has lowered interest rates by a total of 700 basis points, which has improved market sentiment.

Mutual funds have invested more than $132 million in Pakistani stocks since January, indicating a move in investor preferences away from bonds and toward stocks.

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NMDA Humanitarian Aid: Damascus Receives 21st Shipment of Aid for Gaza and Lebanon

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Following a chartered flight from Nur Khan Base yesterday, the 21st shipment of humanitarian aid for war-affected and displaced persons in Gaza and Lebanon has successfully landed in Damascus. The shipment contained 17 tons of relief supplies provided by NDMA.

Pakistan’s ambassador in Damascus, Air Marshal (R) Shahid Akhtar, accepted the aid.

In regards to aiding the war-torn populations of Palestine and Lebanon, the Government of Pakistan is unwavering in its resolve.

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