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Climate change risks may cut Pakistan’s GDP 18-20% by 2050: World Bank



  • Up to 9% of GDP will likely be lost due to climate change.
  • Irrigation water shortages may dent GDP by over 4.6%.
  • Air pollution could impose a 6.5% per year loss of GDP. 

ISLAMABAD: Increasing climate change risks could contract Pakistan’s annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rate significantly in the next 28 years, a World Bank report revealed recently.

“The combined risks from the intensification of climate change and environmental degradation, unless addressed, will further aggravate Pakistan’s economic fragility; and could ultimately reduce annual GDP by 18-20% per year by 2050, based on the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios,” a report recently published by the World Bank said.

Between 6.5% and 9% of GDP will likely be lost due to climate change (in the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, respectively) as increased floods and heatwaves reduce agriculture and livestock yields, destroy infrastructure, sap labour productivity, and undermine health, the report added.

Additionally, water shortages in agriculture could reduce GDP by more than 4.6%, and air pollution could impose a loss of 6.5% of GDP per year.

The use of water for non-agricultural purposes is likely to increase significantly with climate change. 

Under a high-growth (4.9% per year) and high-warming (3°C by 2047) scenario, water demand is projected to increase by almost 60%, with the highest rates of the increase coming from the domestic and industrial sectors, the report said.

It added that climate warming would account for up to 15% of this increase in demand. This heightened demand will result in unintended consequences that deprive downstream areas of water rights. The competition among sectors will necessitate inter-sectoral tradeoffs that will likely be made at the expense of water for agriculture.

It is projected that, in the next three decades, about 10% of all irrigation water will need to be repurposed to meet non-agricultural demand. 

Freeing up 10% of irrigation water without compromising food security will be a complex challenge that will require substantial policy reforms to incentivise water conservation and increase water use efficiency in the agricultural sector and a shift away from water-thirsty crops as well as better environmental management.

The projected costs of a forced reallocation of water out of agriculture, to meet non-agriculture demands, without such steps, could reduce GDP in 2047 by 4.6%. 

The losses projected here are thus the costs of forced reallocation of water to serve other urgent needs, including allocations for water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) and urgent environmental flows to sustain critical ecosystem services.

Damage induced by climate-related extreme events will likely have economy-wide impacts on growth, fiscal space, employment, and poverty. 

Global warming and extreme events affect economic activity through multiple transmission channels: impacts on lives, infrastructure and assets, and livelihoods, which can result in lost economic growth, worsening poverty and longer-term threats to human capital and productivity. 

Existing macro models can help assess the expected scale of such events.

The report added that household poverty is expected to decline over time, but even a 9% decline in GDP by 2050 is enough to stall poverty reduction, with disproportionate impacts on rural households.

By 2030, the urban poverty rate is expected to be half that of rural areas. By 2050, urban poverty is projected to decline further, to 10%, while rural poverty remains in the 25–28% range.


In four months, FBR found Rs 800 billion in fraudulent tax refunds.




Over the last four months, the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has discovered a Rs800 billion tax refund scam.

The Inland Revenue and Customs reforms were considered at a review meeting that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif convened. During this time, the board allegedly discovered the Rs800 billion tax refund fraud.

According to the conference, there are 83,579 outstanding tax cases totaling Rs3.2 trillion, of which about 63 cases, or Rs44 billion, have been settled as a consequence of various government measures.

In an effort to speed up the resolution of tax issues, the prime minister also ordered the creation of 100 tribunals.

The gathering also featured the identification of around five million new taxpayers, of whom fifteen thousand retailers have enrolled since April 1, 2024.

View more:More than 46,000 traders have signed up for the Tajir Dost Scheme: FBR.

The prime minister has instructed the tax authorities to promptly include the five billion tax evaders in the tax system and has placed a strong emphasis on working with merchants to improve system efficiency.

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PM Gives FBR Instructions To Speed Up Digitization Work: An investigation revealed a Rs. 800 billion tax refund scam.




Noting favorable results of FBR’s digitization efforts, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif revealed an 800 billion rupee tax refund scam discovered in the last four months.

Shehbaz Sharif stressed improving the tax refund system further while presiding over an important meeting on FBR reforms and digitization in Islamabad.

Regretting the delays in putting various reform programs into action, he emphasized that FBR changes had the potential to increase income.

There is a total of 3.2 trillion rupees worth of ongoing tax cases in various courts and tribunals, according to the briefing given to the conference. With 63 lawsuits worth 44 billion rupees resolved in the last four months, the current government has taken action to resolve these outstanding matters.

The prime minister has directed that efforts be made to attract as many of the 4.9 million potential taxpayers who are wealthy into the tax system as possible without putting undue strain on the impoverished.

Fifty thousand merchants have enrolled so far for the mobile phone retailer registration effort, which began in April.

He also emphasized the necessity for a consolidated approach for continuing reform initiatives and the complete digitization of FBR’s fraud detection and investigation department.

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Mining in Balochistan: Mari Pvt Ltd Secures Exploration License




Licenses for mineral prospecting in the Chagai District of Balochistan have been obtained by Mari Mining Company Private Limited.

501 square kilometers and 513 square kilometers, respectively, are covered by the licenses that the Directorate General Mines and Minerals Balochistan awarded.

Mari Petroleum Company Limited has formed Mari Mining Company as a subsidiary. Major player in Pakistan’s natural gas sector, Mari Petroleum manages the country’s largest gas deposits in Sindh’s Dakhri Gas Field.

With a success record of 70%, which is much greater than many of its peers both domestically and internationally, Mari Petroleum is a major oil and gas exploration and production business.

Because of the efforts of organizations like the International Monetary Fund, Balochistan, a region rich in minerals and natural resources, is developing quickly.

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