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KSE-100 nosedives over 1,700 points as economic turmoil dents investors’ confidence

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  • PSX’s benchark index continues to fall.
  • Investors jittery over decline in rupee value.
  • PKR trades at 306.05 against USD in interbank.

KARACHI: Bears maintained a firm grip on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) on Thursday as the benchmark index tanked nearly 4% amid fears over the worsening economic condition of the country.

Investors reacted with panic to the rising rupee-dollar parity, opting to offload shares on fears of a looming economic turmoil.

The KSE-100 index plummeted from the moment trading began and dived more than 1,700 points to fall below the 45,000 mark. Weak investor sentiment is restricting the index from entering positive territory.

The PSX was at 44,475.06 after falling 1,769.49 points or 3.83% at 02:54pm compared to Wednesday’s close of 46,244.55 points.

KSE-100 nosedives over 1,700 points as economic turmoil dents investors’ confidence

Speaking to Geo.tv, Intermarket Securities’ Head of Equity Raza Jafri said that the KSE-100 is facing severe selling pressure as there is a lack of confidence emanating from the weak economy.

“In particular, investors are taking their cues from the depreciating rupee especially as the next review of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is not due for a few months and there is a little concrete colour on planned investment from the GCC. Value buyers may return if the dip extends as the index is down 8% from its recent high but meaningful valuation rerating needs clarity on politics and the economy return.”

Echoing the sentiments, Capital market expert Saad Ali stated that PSX remains under pressure as the incessant rupee slide has worsened the outlook for inflation ahead of the next MPC in September, in which the central bank can resume raising interest rates.

Ali noted that the financial market is also nervous about the public protests over power tariff hikes and if the interim govt resorts to populist measures to appease the public, it will jeopardise talks with the IMF.

“On a positive note, today MSCI rebalancing is underway, due to which Pakistan is likely to see foreign inflows. But it is not enough to improve market sentiment.”

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Pakistan’s $1.1 billion loan tranche is approved by the IMF board.

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The cash is the third and last installment of a $3 billion standby agreement with the international lender that it obtained to prevent a sovereign default last year and that expires this month.

Following the discussion of Pakistan’s request for the release of funds at today’s IMF Executive Board meeting in Washington, the final tranche was authorized.

Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) came to a staff-level agreement last month about the last assessment of a $3 billion loan package.

The total amount of $1.9 billion that the nation has received thus far is divided into two tranches: $1.2 billion in July and $700 million in January 2024.

According to Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, Islamabad could have a staff-level agreement on the new program by early July. Pakistan is asking the IMF for a fresh, longer-term loan.

In order to support macroeconomic stability and carry out long-overdue and difficult structural changes, Islamabad says it is seeking a loan for a minimum of three years; however, Aurangzeb has reluctant to specify the specific program in question. If approved, it would be Pakistan’s 24th IMF bailout.

See Also: Pakistan formally requests new IMF assistance

The event transpired on the day following Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s meeting with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, during which he reaffirmed the government’s resolve to restart Pakistan’s economy.

During the meeting held in conjunction with the World Economic Forum Special Meeting, the prime minister announced that he had given his finance minister, Muhammad Aurangzeb, strict instructions to implement structural reforms, maintain strict fiscal discipline, and pursue prudent policies that would guarantee macroeconomic stability and continuous economic growth.

Georgieva was commended by him for helping Pakistan obtain the $3 billion Standby Arrangement (SBA) from the IMF last year, which was about to be finalized.

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Macroeconomic circumstances in Pakistan have improved.

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By virtue of the Board’s resolution, SDR 828 million, or roughly $1.1 billion, can be disbursed immediately, increasing the total amount disbursed under the arrangement to SDR 2.250 billion, or roughly $3 billion.

After being adopted by the Executive Board on July 12, 2023, Pakistan’s nine-month SBA effectively served as a framework for financial support from both bilateral and multilateral partners, as well as a policy anchor to resolve imbalances both domestically and internationally.

According to the official announcement from the IMF, Pakistan’s macroeconomic conditions have improved during the program. Given the ongoing recovery in the second half of the fiscal year, growth of two percent is anticipated in FY24.

With a primary surplus of 1.8 percent of GDP in the first half of the fiscal year 2024—well ahead of expectations and putting Pakistan on track to meet its target primary surplus of 0.4 percent of GDP by the end of the fiscal year—the country’s fiscal condition is still strengthening.

Even while it is still high, inflation is still falling and should end up at about 20 percent by the end of June if data-driven and adequately tight monetary policy is continued.

In contrast to 11.4 per cent last year, the IMF predicted in an official statement that Pakistan’s tax collection and grants will stay at 12.5% of GDP in FY2024.

After remaining at 7.8% of GDP in FY2023, the deficit is predicted to stay at 7.5% of GDP in FY2024.

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Pakistan’s fuel prices should drop.

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At 0423 GMT, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude prices fell 13 cents, or 0.16%, to $82.50 a barrel, while Brent crude futures were down 10 cents, or 0.11%, to $88.30 a barrel.

Both benchmarks’ front-month contracts saw losses of over 1% on Monday.

on line with the worldwide trend, the price of gasoline is anticipated to decrease by Rs. 5.4 per liter on the local market. In the same way, buyers in the Pakistani market may see a drop in the price of diesel of Rs8 a litre.

Additionally, it is anticipated that the prices of light fuel and kerosene will decrease by Rs5.40 and Rs8.3 per liter, respectively.

The finance ministry will receive a summary from the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA), and PM Shehbaz Sharif will be consulted before a final decision is made today.

The federal government raised the cost of gasoline by Rs. 4.53 per liter and diesel by Rs. 8.14 per liter at the most recent review.

At the moment, the price of gasoline was Rs 293.94 per liter, while the price of high-speed diesel was Rs 290.38 per liter.

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