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IMF range of 1.25% between interbank, kerb rates of dollar breached over last five days

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  • Difference ranges between 2% to 4% for last five working days.
  • Local currency in interbank market continues to slide.
  • IMF under SBA mandated spread not to be more than 1.25% in five consecutive business days on weekly basis.

ISLAMABAD: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) structural benchmark for keeping the difference between interbank and open market rates for US dollar against the Pakistani rupee within the band range of 1.25% had been breached at least for the last five working days, The News reported on Thursday.

The difference ranged between 2% to 4% in the last five consecutive days whereas the global lender might raise this issue, with the caretaker government, in the upcoming negotiations expected to be held at the end of October or early November this year.

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has been unable to keep the difference in exchange rate within the desired limit of 1.25% so far despite witnessing depreciation in the exchange rate.

The clearance of stuck-up containers at ports, payment of dividends, and removal of other restrictions have increased pressures on the exchange rate. 

Secondly, the IMF condition has been resulting in dollarisation because the interbank market was following the open market so everyone knows that investing in the dollar would increase benefits.

This scribe sent out a question to the SBP two days ago inquiring whether the agreed benchmark with the IMF was breached in the last five working days as the gap between the interbank and open market ranged around 4%. What’s the view of the SBP and how you ensured monitoring and then report it back to the IMF on a weekly basis?

The SBP’s spokesperson replied on Wednesday and stated “We do not have any comment to offer”.

The IMF under Standby Arrangement (SBA) mandated spread not to be more than 1.25% in five consecutive business days on a weekly basis.

The local currency in the interbank market continues to slide as the rupee in the interbank market stood at Rs295 and in the open market around Rs305 so the difference stood at 3.4%. From January 1, 2023, to August 15, 2023, the rupee witnessed a devaluation of 22.32% against the US dollar.

Independent economists feared that episodes of exchange rate depreciation were continuously expected during the gradual return to a market-based exchange rate.

While the rupee experienced an appreciation following the IMF under SBA, this effect was a combination of an increase in market confidence and depreciation of the US dollar. Because the trend of depreciation since FY23 has been driven by a deterioration of economic fundamentals, the effect of increased market confidence was only temporary, and the rupee-dollar exchange rate has returned to pre-SBA levels.

The recent depreciation could be attributed to the return to a market-determined exchange rate and commitment of no formal or informal intervention in foreign exchange markets, SBP’s interventions to be guided by the overarching objective of increasing reserves to at least $6.4 billion (1 month of import cover) by end of December 2023 and reducing SBP’s net forward/swap position to below $4 billion.

The foreign exchange sales are not to be used to prevent a trend depreciation of the rupee driven by economic fundamentals.

The policy rate was jacked up to 22% on June 26th, 2023, and will be further adjusted until inflation and inflation expectations are on a clear downward trend. The real policy rate (i.e., policy rate adjusted for inflation) might be brought into positive territory.

The withdrawal of a December 2022 circular issued to banks on prioritization in providing FX for certain types of imports, and a gradual phase-out of other FX and import restrictions, including the limitations on advance payments for imports against letters of credits (LCs) and advance payments beyond a certain amount per invoice (without LC) for the import of eligible items, and multiple currency practices also increased pressures on the exchange rate.

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Pakistan’s gold prices are still declining; see the most recent

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The price of 10-gram gold reduced by Rs943 to settle at Rs207,733, while the price of gold dropped by Rs1200 to close at Rs242,300 a tola, according to the Sindh Sarafa Jewellers Association.

In the global market, the price of the precious metal fell by $10 to $2,349 per ounce, resulting in losses.

At 04:48 GMT, the spot price of gold had dropped by 0.2% to $2,354.77 per ounce. In the previous session, prices reached a two-week high.

American gold futures dropped 0.6% to $2,361.

Spot silver decreased by 0.4% to $28.03 per ounce, while palladium remained steady at $978.03 and platinum decreased by 0.1% to $992.89.

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Pakistan and the IMF begin talks for a new loan.

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Pakistan is requesting a $6 to $8 billion bailout package from the international lender over the next three to four years to address its financial troubles.

A mission team led by Nathan Porter, the IMF’s Mission Chief in Pakistan, is meeting with a Pakistani delegation led by Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb.

According to sources familiar with the situation, Islamabad may face more difficult options, such as raising power and gas bills.

Mr. Aurganzeb informed the IMF team that the country’s economy has improved as a result of the IMF loan package, and Islamabad is ready to sign a new loan programme to further develop.

The IMF mission expressed satisfaction with Islamabad’s efforts to revive the country’s struggling economy.

The IMF praised Pakistan’s economic growth in its staff report earlier this week, but warned that the outlook remains challenging, with very high downside risks.

The country nearly avoided collapse last summer, and its $350 billion economy has stabilized since the end of the last IMF program, with inflation falling to roughly 17% in April from a record high of 38% last May.

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Petrol prices are likely to drop significantly beginning May 16.

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According to sources, the government is set to decrease petrol prices by Rs 14 per litre and diesel prices by Rs 10 on May 16 for the next fortnight’s revision.

Last month, the government reduced the price of fuel and high-speed diesel by Rs5.45 and Rs8.42 per fortnight, respectively.

The current fuel price is Rs288.49 per litre, while the HSD price is Rs281.96.

Meanwhile, oil prices fell further on Monday, as signs of sluggish fuel consumption and comments from U.S. Federal Reserve officials dimmed optimism for interest rate reduction, which may slow growth and reduce fuel demand in the world’s largest economy.

Brent crude prices down 25 cents, or 0.3%, to $82.54 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 19 cents, or 0.2%, to $78.07 per barrel.

Oil prices also declined on signals of poor demand, according to ANZ analysts, as gasoline and distillate inventories in the United States increased in the week before the start of the driving season.

Refiners throughout the world are dealing with falling diesel profitability as new refineries increase supply and warm weather in the northern hemisphere and weak economic activity reduce demand.

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