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Gold price rises in Pakistan; silver hits all-time high

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  • Gold prices increase in world markets as dollar trims gains.
  • Trend to take cue on central bank’s monetary stance, inflation.
  • Silver in local market touches all-time high of Rs2,350 per tola.

Gold prices in Pakistan rose on Monday, tracking global trends and a possible push from a retreating rupee that consequently turns dollar-quoted safe-haven metal pricier, forcing traders to err on the side of caution on the eve of monetary policy meeting.

According to the data released by All-Pakistan Sarafa Gems and Jewellers Association (APSGJA), the price of gold (24 carats) rose by Rs1,200 per tola and Rs1,028 per 10 grams to settle at Rs209,500 and Rs164,645 respectively.

Rupee depreciated 0.44% against the dollar in the inter-bank market on Monday. As per the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the rupee settled at 285.04, a loss of Rs1.25.

The State Bank of Pakistan is expected to raise the policy rate by 100-200 basis points as inflation is spiralling out of control. Consumer price inflation in Pakistan jumped to a record 35.37% in March from a year earlier.

Gold is often hailed as a hedge against inflation—increasing in value as the purchasing power of the dollar declines. 

Pakistan’s monthly inflation blew past forecasts in March and soared to a nearly all-time high level — 35.4% — from a year earlier, with people feeling more pain from some of the fastest rising consumer prices amid straining budgets as cost of living continues to outstrip average incomes.

Last month, the central bank hiked the policy rate by 300 basis points to 20%.

World gold prices bounced back on Monday as the dollar trimmed its initial gains that were driven by bets that OPEC’s surprise output cuts could jack up global energy prices and force central banks to hike interest rates.

Spot gold rose 0.5% to $1,977.43 per ounce by 1206 GMT. U.S. gold futures gained 0.4% to $1,994.50.

Earlier in the session, gold touched a one-week low of $1,949.54.

While gold is traditionally considered a hedge against inflation, increasing the interest rates to rein in rising price pressures dims the appeal of the asset since it pays no interest.

Silver prices in the domestic market rose by Rs80 per tola and Rs68.59 per 10 grams to settle at their all-time highs of Rs2,350 and Rs2,014.47, respectively.

International prices of silver fell 0.3% to $24.01 per ounce, platinum was also down 0.3% to $988.60 while palladium rose 0.7% to $1,470.72.

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Pakistan’s $1.1 billion loan tranche is approved by the IMF board.

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The cash is the third and last installment of a $3 billion standby agreement with the international lender that it obtained to prevent a sovereign default last year and that expires this month.

Following the discussion of Pakistan’s request for the release of funds at today’s IMF Executive Board meeting in Washington, the final tranche was authorized.

Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) came to a staff-level agreement last month about the last assessment of a $3 billion loan package.

The total amount of $1.9 billion that the nation has received thus far is divided into two tranches: $1.2 billion in July and $700 million in January 2024.

According to Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, Islamabad could have a staff-level agreement on the new program by early July. Pakistan is asking the IMF for a fresh, longer-term loan.

In order to support macroeconomic stability and carry out long-overdue and difficult structural changes, Islamabad says it is seeking a loan for a minimum of three years; however, Aurangzeb has reluctant to specify the specific program in question. If approved, it would be Pakistan’s 24th IMF bailout.

See Also: Pakistan formally requests new IMF assistance

The event transpired on the day following Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s meeting with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, during which he reaffirmed the government’s resolve to restart Pakistan’s economy.

During the meeting held in conjunction with the World Economic Forum Special Meeting, the prime minister announced that he had given his finance minister, Muhammad Aurangzeb, strict instructions to implement structural reforms, maintain strict fiscal discipline, and pursue prudent policies that would guarantee macroeconomic stability and continuous economic growth.

Georgieva was commended by him for helping Pakistan obtain the $3 billion Standby Arrangement (SBA) from the IMF last year, which was about to be finalized.

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Macroeconomic circumstances in Pakistan have improved.

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By virtue of the Board’s resolution, SDR 828 million, or roughly $1.1 billion, can be disbursed immediately, increasing the total amount disbursed under the arrangement to SDR 2.250 billion, or roughly $3 billion.

After being adopted by the Executive Board on July 12, 2023, Pakistan’s nine-month SBA effectively served as a framework for financial support from both bilateral and multilateral partners, as well as a policy anchor to resolve imbalances both domestically and internationally.

According to the official announcement from the IMF, Pakistan’s macroeconomic conditions have improved during the program. Given the ongoing recovery in the second half of the fiscal year, growth of two percent is anticipated in FY24.

With a primary surplus of 1.8 percent of GDP in the first half of the fiscal year 2024—well ahead of expectations and putting Pakistan on track to meet its target primary surplus of 0.4 percent of GDP by the end of the fiscal year—the country’s fiscal condition is still strengthening.

Even while it is still high, inflation is still falling and should end up at about 20 percent by the end of June if data-driven and adequately tight monetary policy is continued.

In contrast to 11.4 per cent last year, the IMF predicted in an official statement that Pakistan’s tax collection and grants will stay at 12.5% of GDP in FY2024.

After remaining at 7.8% of GDP in FY2023, the deficit is predicted to stay at 7.5% of GDP in FY2024.

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Pakistan’s fuel prices should drop.

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At 0423 GMT, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude prices fell 13 cents, or 0.16%, to $82.50 a barrel, while Brent crude futures were down 10 cents, or 0.11%, to $88.30 a barrel.

Both benchmarks’ front-month contracts saw losses of over 1% on Monday.

on line with the worldwide trend, the price of gasoline is anticipated to decrease by Rs. 5.4 per liter on the local market. In the same way, buyers in the Pakistani market may see a drop in the price of diesel of Rs8 a litre.

Additionally, it is anticipated that the prices of light fuel and kerosene will decrease by Rs5.40 and Rs8.3 per liter, respectively.

The finance ministry will receive a summary from the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA), and PM Shehbaz Sharif will be consulted before a final decision is made today.

The federal government raised the cost of gasoline by Rs. 4.53 per liter and diesel by Rs. 8.14 per liter at the most recent review.

At the moment, the price of gasoline was Rs 293.94 per liter, while the price of high-speed diesel was Rs 290.38 per liter.

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