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Dollar gains further ground to near historic high against rupee

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2 years ago

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  • Rupee registers losses for 15th consecutive session.
  • Rupee falls to 239.71 after losing 0.03% in interbank market.
  • Local unit is nearing historic low against dollar.

KARACHI: Registering losses for the 15th consecutive session, the Pakistani rupee lost further ground Thursday as the US dollar neared a historic high.

The rupee fell to 239.71 after losing 0.03%, down in value from the previous session’s close of 239.65, in the interbank market..

The rupee now stands only Rs0.23 short of an all-time low level of Rs239.94 on July 28, 2022.

The rupee, which has been one of the worst performing currencies in the emerging markets, has depreciated by nearly 9% so far this month due to wide-ranging factors.

Analyst Yousuf Rahman at KASB Securities told The News that debt servicing was one of the reasons behind the rupee’s decline as gross financing needs for the year are estimated at $32 billion.

Rahman also noted that floods have forced the government to import vegetables, grains, and cotton to replace damaged crops — increasing the pressure on the rupee.

“This has further added strain on the import bill and there have been news of consistent dollar outflows from grey channels, particularly through the Afghanistan border,” Rahman said.

He said the fundamentals and sentiments for the battered rupee won’t improve until anticipated inflows from friendly countries happen.

“Once additional financing is received from the World Bank, ADB [Asian Development Bank], and allied countries, the rupee may stabilise around the 215 mark,” Rahman added.

The revival of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout programme and the release of a $1.1 billion loan tranche from the Fund last month supported the rupee briefly in late August. However, the currency is again struggling.

“Dollar strength and high commodity prices are impacting regional and major currencies,” said Komal Mansoor, the head of research at Tresmark.

“[The] Indian rupee also traded above 80/dollar this week, and they have spent $90 billion to defend their already stable currency. Yuan, euro, and sterling have all depreciated to multi-year lows,” Mansoor said.

But the local currency hitting new lows is worrisome for the economy because it shows the government’s inability to stabilise forex reserves and reverse negative sentiment, he added.

“Some sort of a two-way direction is crucial for the currency”.

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ADB authorizes a $200 million loan for Pakistan to upgrade its power distribution system.

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A $200 million loan from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has been authorized to update Pakistan’s power distribution system.

The project intends to improve data management and communication networks and deploy more than 300,000 smart metering equipment.

The project will involve improvements to voltage levels at SEPCO grid stations and monitoring systems for 15,500 transformers. LESCO plans to build or upgrade 25 grid stations with cutting-edge machinery. The initiative will reinforce income security, enhance demand management, and lower power losses, all of which will help to address

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Bulls recover from a sharp fall.

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The benchmark KSE-100 Index hovered at 111,005 points after rising more than 2000 points against the previous closing of 108,896 points, indicating that bullish momentum has returned to the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) a day after a sharp bearish rally.

For the past month or so, the proverbial bulls have been galloping thanks to the cash infusion from the International Monetary Fund’s loan release and more discussions on climate funding.

The impending SBP policy rate-cutting meeting is another factor contributing to the current market mood. On December 16, the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee is anticipated to convene.

Market analysts claim that the government’s decision to form a committee to address the outstanding problem of the Advances to Deposit Ratio (ADR) in the banking industry was the cause of the market’s abrupt collapse. However, the trend didn’t last long.

Following an extraordinary run of gains over the past month or so, the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) reached a historic high of 100,000 points on November 30.

The KSE-100 index achieved one milestone after another in November 2024 amid recurring reports of economic stability, mainly due to the recent loan disbursement by the IMF.

The reassuring agreement with the international lender and Pakistan’s economic czar Muhammad Aurangzeb’s subsequent announcement ruling out a mini-budget boosted investor confidence in recent times.

The State Bank of Pakistan lowered the policy rate by 250 basis points to 15% on November 5.

Inflation dropped more quickly than anticipated and approached its medium-term target range in October, according to the SBP’s relevant committee.

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PSX 100-index reaches an unprecedented peak, exceeding 111,000 points.

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The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) reached the significant milestone of 111,000 points shortly after today’s market opening.

The KSE-100 Index ascended by more than 1,000 points in the initial five minutes of trade, achieving a notable increase of 1,044 points to attain 111,014 points.

The increase indicates heightened investor confidence and a robust market sentiment.

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