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Dollar gains further ground to near historic high against rupee

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  • Rupee registers losses for 15th consecutive session.
  • Rupee falls to 239.71 after losing 0.03% in interbank market.
  • Local unit is nearing historic low against dollar.

KARACHI: Registering losses for the 15th consecutive session, the Pakistani rupee lost further ground Thursday as the US dollar neared a historic high.

The rupee fell to 239.71 after losing 0.03%, down in value from the previous session’s close of 239.65, in the interbank market..

The rupee now stands only Rs0.23 short of an all-time low level of Rs239.94 on July 28, 2022.

The rupee, which has been one of the worst performing currencies in the emerging markets, has depreciated by nearly 9% so far this month due to wide-ranging factors.

Analyst Yousuf Rahman at KASB Securities told The News that debt servicing was one of the reasons behind the rupee’s decline as gross financing needs for the year are estimated at $32 billion.

Rahman also noted that floods have forced the government to import vegetables, grains, and cotton to replace damaged crops — increasing the pressure on the rupee.

“This has further added strain on the import bill and there have been news of consistent dollar outflows from grey channels, particularly through the Afghanistan border,” Rahman said.

He said the fundamentals and sentiments for the battered rupee won’t improve until anticipated inflows from friendly countries happen.

“Once additional financing is received from the World Bank, ADB [Asian Development Bank], and allied countries, the rupee may stabilise around the 215 mark,” Rahman added.

The revival of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout programme and the release of a $1.1 billion loan tranche from the Fund last month supported the rupee briefly in late August. However, the currency is again struggling.

“Dollar strength and high commodity prices are impacting regional and major currencies,” said Komal Mansoor, the head of research at Tresmark.

“[The] Indian rupee also traded above 80/dollar this week, and they have spent $90 billion to defend their already stable currency. Yuan, euro, and sterling have all depreciated to multi-year lows,” Mansoor said.

But the local currency hitting new lows is worrisome for the economy because it shows the government’s inability to stabilise forex reserves and reverse negative sentiment, he added.

“Some sort of a two-way direction is crucial for the currency”.

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Pakistan has amassed $14.5 billion in foreign exchange reserves.

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State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) statistics, which was made public on May 3, shows that the country’s foreign exchange reserves increased significantly to $14.45 billion.

A noteworthy increase of $1.11 billion to $9.12 billion was made in the SBP’s reserves.

The foreign exchange reserves that commercial banks possessed also experienced a notable surge, rising by $2.86 billion to $5.33 billion.

As per the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), Pakistan got the $3 billion standby arrangement last month, including the much-awaited $1.1 billion final tranche from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Following the successful conclusion of the second review by the Executive Board of the IMF under Stand-By Arrangement (SBA),” the SBP stated that it had been awarded Special Drawing Rights (SDR) 828 million, or $1.1 billion in value.

SBP reserves for the week ending on May 3, 2024, will show the payout, according to the central bank.

The second review of Pakistan’s Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) was finished by the IMF Executive Board one day earlier, enabling a $3 billion increase in total disbursements under the contract.

According to a statement from the IMF, “the completion of the second and final review ref­lects the authorities’ stronger policy efforts under the SBA, which have supported the stabilization of the economy and the return of modest growth.”

“Policy and reform efforts by the authorities, including strict adherence to fiscal targets, are necessary to move Pakistan from stabilization to a strong and sustainable recovery,” the statement continued.

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In April, worker remittances rose by 27.9 percent year over year.

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Based on the central bank’s data, the United Arab Emirates (US$ 542.3 million), the United Kingdom (US$ 403.2 million), Saudi Arabia (US$ 712.0 million), and the United States of America (US$ 329.2 million) were the top four countries from which remittance inflows in April 2024 originated.

The SBP said in a statement that “for the first ten months of the current fiscal year, workers’ remittances increased by 3.5 percent cumulatively, with inflow of US$ 23.8 billion, as compared to the same period last year.”

Previous records show that in March 2024, remittances from overseas workers totaled US$3 billion.

Regarding expansion, remittances rose by 16.4% annually and 31.3 percent monthly during the month under consideration.

Comparing the first nine months of the fiscal year 2023–24 to the same period previous year, an inflow of US$ 21.0 billion in worker remittances was observed, up from US$ 20.8 billion.

Saudi Arabia (US$703.1 million), the United Arab Emirates (US$548.5 million), the United Kingdom (US$461.5 million), and the United States of America (US$372.5 million) were the top sources of workers’ remittance inflows on March 24.

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Problem with SIM blocking: FBR to “move” court against Telcos and PTA

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Unless telecom operators block the SIMs of 500,000 non-filers by May 15, FBR is reportedly planning legal action against them.

According to sources, the FBR has conferred with its legal counsel in order to challenge telecom providers, such as PTA, in the Islamabad High Court for failing to abide by directives to disable non-filers’ SIM cards.

Sources also stated that the FBR and Ministry of Finance have decided to take legal action against PTA and telecom providers for failing to carry out the directives to block the SIM cards of non-filers even after more than ten days had passed.

Following a nationwide impasse over the barring of recognized non-filers’ mobile SIMs, the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) and telecom operators took action.

Tight sources on the matter disclosed that, citing operational and technical challenges, the Cellular Mobile Companies declined to disable the SIM cards of 506,000 taxpayers who had been recognized as non-compliant.

Reportedly, telecom providers argued in a statement that executing FBR’s regulations presents legal challenges.

The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) called for the authorities to disable the SIM cards of over 506,000 identified non-compliant taxpayers nationwide on April 30, issuing a general income tax order. This is important to note.

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