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Experts warn of ‘tough time’ ahead as Pakistan-IMF talks end without agreement

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Pakistan and the visiting International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission failed to arrive at a staff-level agreement after talks aimed at unlocking critical funds needed for the ailing South Asian economy concluded on Thursday with both sides agreeing to continue negotiations virtually.

The mission was in Islamabad since January 31 to sort out the differences over fiscal policy that have stalled the release of more than $1 billion from the $6.5 billion bailout package originally signed by the government of prime minister Imran Khan in 2019.

However, at the end of the 10-day “tough parleys”, Pakistan failed to strike the deal with the Fund mission. Although Secretary Finance Hamed Yaqoob Sheikh confirmed that “actions and prior actions have been agreed, but the staff level agreement will be signed subsequently.”

It should be noted that the IMF’s loan is critical for the country’s $350 billion economy as the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP)-held foreign exchange reserves have fallen to $2.91 billion — enough to provide an import cover of 0.58 months.

‘Atrocious’ strategy

Uzair Younus, director of the Pakistan Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Centre, while commenting on the development, told Geo.tv that the communications strategy of the [Ishaq] Dar-led Ministry of Finance has been atrocious from the very beginning.

He warned that this was “only the latest in a series of fiascos” that have destroyed the ministry’s credibility and undermined confidence in the economy.

The economic expert predicted that a bloodbath will be seen in the markets, as players earlier refrained from assuming fresh positions in the last few sessions on hopes of the revival of the stalled programme.

‘Tough days ahead’

Vaqar Ahmed, deputy executive director at Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI), told Geo.tv that the MEFP shared has a broader framework which hints that in the days to come Pakistan would have to meet certain conditions.

“The Fund has rejected the gradual approach proposal of Pakistan, saying the time for this has gone and Islamabad now needs to do everything upfront,” he said, revealing that the conditions which are currently on the table incorporate all those promises made during the past reviews, including those related to energy sector, power and gas tariff, levy on diesel, and tax gaps.

The economist said that the Washington-based lender first wants to see action on all these things before it concludes the review, their board gives the approval and transfers the money.

“I believe that there are tough days ahead and the government will first have to show that they can walk the line and then probably the IMF will come through and a board level agreement will be reached,” Ahmed said, adding that he thinks all of this will take approximately one month.

‘Implementation time’

Meanwhile, former adviser to Finance Ministry Dr Khaqan Najeeb lamented that Pakistan should have inked a staff-level agreement with the IMF mission before their departure.

“Still, it is heartening to note that considerable progress has been made on the set of policy reforms that are needed to move forward to complete the review,” he said, adding that it was for authorities to undertake the prior actions, complete reading of the MEFP document received to enable a staff-level agreement. 

The former adviser highlighted that dwindling reserves do not leave much option but to expedite this process already delayed since early November. 

“The actions on revenue, energy, monetary and exchange rate management are quite clear along with the need to firm up commitments for external financing from bilateral and multilateral partners. 

“It is implementation time for the country to address domestic and external imbalances and to regain macroeconomic stability,” he maintained.

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Saudi investment and falling inflation cause Pakistani stocks to soar.

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The benchmark KSE-100 Index increased by more than 1.50 percent on Monday, driven by the possibility of significant Saudi investment. Investors are now more optimistic that the central bank will soon begin a cycle of interest rate cuts, and another IMF programme is very much on the horizon.

The KSE-100 Index increased by 910.25 points, or 1.27 percent, by 1:29 pm PST to close at 72,812.34, having reached an intraday high of 73,060.74.

Additionally, on Monday, Ibrahim Al Mubarak, the deputy minister of investments for Saudi Arabia, stated that his nation preferred Pakistan’s economic growth and thought it was the best place to make investments.

The news is definitely good for equities that have been cheap since their market capitalization peaked in 2017, as many industries—energy, agriculture, technology, and mining being the primary ones—can now attract much-needed foreign investment.

The inflation of Pakistan

The consumer price index (CPI) for April increased by 17.3 percent, the lowest level since May 2022. This led to the benchmark index rising by 1244.45 points, or 1.76 percent, during the last session on Friday of last week.

This indicates that, like in March, annual inflation declined for the fourth straight month in April and stayed below the current record high interest rates of 22 percent. like a result, the State Bank of Pakistan may decide to begin reducing interest rates at its upcoming meeting on June 10.

While the pattern seen on Friday was also influenced by a market correction, the persistence of this most recent upswing indicates that investors are anticipating an economic recovery in the context of falling inflation and impending Saudi Arabian investment.

IMF APPEAL

In the meantime, the IMF continues to play a significant role in Pakistan, influencing not just public policy but also private sector initiatives and the lives of common citizens. Furthermore, the market was undoubtedly helped by the world’s largest lender’s most recent announcement of the upcoming transaction negotiations.

The Bretton Woods Institution said on Sunday that a delegation was scheduled to visit Pakistan this month to talk about a new initiative, prior to Islamabad starting the annual budget-making process for the upcoming fiscal year.

Although Pakistan’s $3 billion short-term programme helped prevent a sovereign default last month, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s administration has emphasised the necessity for a new, longer-term initiative.

The IMF responded to Reuters via email, saying that a mission is anticipated to visit Pakistan in May to review the FY25 budget, policies, and reforms under a proposed new programme for the wellbeing of all Pakistanis.

MERCURABLE BY SAMPLE

Meanwhile, it has been claimed that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman would pay a visit to Pakistan later this month. The kingdom has been making massive investments all over the world in an effort to become a more significant player in world affairs.

It makes sense that after years of political unrest and economic hardship, his presence and the Saudi investment will aid Pakistan in establishing itself as a desirable location for investors.

The explanation is straightforward: Saudi Arabia continues to be a significant actor in world politics. Nonetheless, the globe has begun to view MBS, the crown prince’s nickname, as a role model due to his policies of diversifying his nation’s economy and elevating the kingdom to a centre of commerce.

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Saudi investment is most suited for Pakistan, according to Ibrahim Al-Mubarak

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Ibrahim Al Mubarak, the deputy minister of investments for Saudi Arabia, stated on Monday that his nation thought Pakistan was the best place to invest and wanted to see it flourish economically.

Speaking at the opening ceremony of the two-day Pakistan-Saudi Arabia Investment Forum 2024 in Islamabad, he stated that Saudi entrepreneurs were open to making investments in a variety of industries and that a significant portion of Pakistanis were contributing significantly to the growth of the kingdom.

ON THE DRIVING SEAT: PRIVATE SECTOR

Muhammad Aurangzeb, the finance minister, stated in his speech that the private sector should take the “driving seat” in order to revitalise the economy.

The finance minister stated, “The ministers and bureaucracy would have to lay back,” adding that the role of the government was to establish a framework.

According to Aurangzeb, the finance ministry was always there to support traders and company owners as he pursued economic reforms as part of the government’s objective.

Using the better rupee exchange rate as an example, he claimed that successful policies were bringing about economic stability.

The minister also mentioned that the government was trying to draw in foreign investment, but he also emphasised the need for continued policies to maintain economic stability and urged collaboration between the public and private sectors to build a robust economy.

Investing in Saudi Arabia

A high-level group of 50 Saudi businesspeople and investors, together with government representatives, arrived in Pakistan earlier on Sunday to attend an event aimed at encouraging investment from the oil-rich Gulf State.

Continue reading: Saudi entrepreneurs arrive in Islamabad as Pakistan seeks foreign investment

This happened only a few days after Saudi Arabia hosted Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif for a Special Meeting on Global Collaboration, Growth, and Energy for Development in Riyadh. During his visit, he also had talks on a number of topics with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

SUMMARY CONVERSATIONS

The audience was informed by Commerce Minister Jam Kamal that every attempt would be made to facilitate international investors and have fruitful discussions between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.

Representatives from thirty Saudi firms made the comments while in Pakistan looking for opportunities to engage in a range of industries, such as agriculture, aviation, human resources, and minerals.

Islamabad has been depending on Saudi investment to spark economic activity in the nation, which will not only boost investor confidence domestically but also aid in persuading businessmen from other countries to prioritise Pakistan, given that the country’s economy is crippled by inflation and high interest rates.

Not a shortage of proficient labourers

In his speech, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Petroleum, Musadik Malik, emphasised the country’s recent rapid progress as well as the necessity of deepening the two countries’ already-existing bilateral relations.

He claimed that Gwadar would soon become a global transit hub and that Pakistan possessed abundant mineral riches. Malik assured the audience that Pakistan did not lack skilled labour.

It’s a narrative in progress. Details will be provided later.

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Nine months yields Rs66 billion for Pakistan Railways.

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They stated that the passenger and goods trains generated the majority of the department’s Rs 66 billion in revenue, with additional cash coming from other departments.

In comparison to the previous year, when 86 trains were in service, Pakistan Railways is currently operating about 96 passenger trains, according to their statement. Comparably, the number of goods trains operated this year reached seven, compared to an average of 3.75 the previous year.

As work on the Mainline-I (ML-I) project gets underway, things will be more streamlined, according to the sources who stated the department stressed that the problem of employee salary delays has now been rectified.

Responding to a query, they stated that only six minor accidents involving no fatalities occurred over the nation’s whole railway network in the previous three months, and that Pakistan Railways had increased preventative efforts to lower passenger train mishaps.

According to them, the efforts made to prevent trespassing at unmanned level crossings and unauthorised sites have resulted in a significant drop in accidents.

The department’s primary concern is passenger safety, thus our workers are constantly keeping an eye on the nation’s railway tracks and thoroughly inspecting the trains, the sources stated.

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