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Rupee to recover against dollar as Pakistan gets ready to seal IMF deal

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  • Govt serious about taking prior actions to sign SLA.
  • Rupee gains 2.18% against dollar this week.
  • Market remains hopeful that IMF agreement will proceed.

KARACHI: The rupee is expected to start its recovery drive against the US dollar as the government’s efforts to secure the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) bailout programme has boosted the market’s positive sentiments and due to an increase in dollar supply, The News reported Sunday citing traders and analysts. 

The government seems serious about taking some prior actions that could help meet the IMF conditions to seal the state-level agreement with the global lender. 

During the outgoing week, the local currency gained about 2.18% against the greenback in the interbank market, raising from 275.30 on Monday to 269.28 on Friday.

Although no agreement to unlock the funds from a $6.5 billion bailout was achieved between Islamabad and the IMF during the fund’s 10-day visit, both parties concurred to continue long negotiations because the South Asian nation’s worsening economic crisis does not appear to have a quick resolution.

Pakistan must come to an agreement with the IMF for further money to secure more aid, avoid default, and rebuild foreign currency reserves that have decreased to $2.9 billion.

The stock market embarked on a selling binge, but there was no reaction to both sides’ failure to reach a staff-level accord. It increases the IMF timeframe by at least another 10–12 days and, given the rate at which reserves are depleting, constitutes a serious concern.

Despite a setback, the market remains hopeful that the IMF agreement will proceed, particularly given the several harsh “prior actions” Pakistan has already done.

“As the IMF needs to see some progress on the terms, the staff-level agreement (SLA) is still not in place. In about a week, the SLA might be signed and then sent to the IMF board for final approval. Overall, progress that is good,” said a currency dealer.

A positive effect is happening in the currency market by the exporters, due to dual movement in the currency, who are realising export proceeds, and providing much-needed liquidity in the market, according to Tresmark’s client note.

“For the first time in many months, the market also witnessed material selling in the forward tenors by exporters. In the grey market the last quote was 280/282 and there is some panic there as well as speculators want to book their profits and exit the market,” it said.

There was still a substantial backlog of imports and payments, which would exceed any inflow of export proceeds. But in the medium term, and given that the IMF agreement would go ahead with follow-up from friendly countries and multilateral institutions, demand might go to take a huge hit, it added.

“With that, entities involved in the export business will see a boom where as those in the import business will witness a bust. In the short term the market may stay above the 270/$ level, but may fall back to 262/$ level in the medium term,” the client note stated.

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An investigation was “launched” into PTA’s inability to get Rs. 78 billion back from Telcos

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The PTA has reportedly been instructed to reply to NAB by July 29. According to the enquiry, the national exchequer has suffered losses as a result of the delay in collecting dues.

The PTA has been asked to provide NAB with information about any pertinent records, court proceedings, and overdue bills. The NAB Karachi has summoned the PTA officials to appear with all pertinent documentation.

All of the principle sum has to be paid by the LDI firms, according to sources. But due to judicial stay orders, the collection of dues has been impeded.

These sources further state that a steering group has been established by the Ministry of IT to supervise the issue of dues recovery.

In a previous event, the tariffs levied on importing cell phones from outside were clarified by the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA).

Contrary to what some internet reports claim, PTA clarified in response to recent news regarding the tariffs on mobile phone imports that there hasn’t been a formal decision to remove these levies in Pakistan.

the PTA.Pakistanis living abroad will be the only ones free from these levies, according to the PTA. A SIM card can be inserted and the phone restarted to temporarily register a device for non-PTA mobile subscribers.

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Weekly inflation in Pakistan increased by 0.17 percent.

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The SPI for the week under review in the aforementioned group was reported at 321.95 points, as opposed to 321.40 points during the previous week, according to the PBS statistics.

The SPI for the combined consumption group saw a 20.09 percent increase in the week under review compared to the same week the previous year.

The weekly SPI includes 51 necessary items for every spending group and 17 urban areas, with a base year of 2015–16 = 100.

The SPI for the lowest consumption category, which is up to Rs 17,732, grew by 0.08 percent from 311.97 points to 312.22 points this past week.

0.18 percent,The index of consumption for the lowest consumption groups, which are Rs 17,732-22,888, Rs 22,889-29,517, Rs 29,518-44,175 and above Rs 44,175; increased by 0.13 percent, 0.15 percent, 0.18 and 0.19 percent, respectively.

Nineteen (37.25%) of the fifty-one commodities had price increases over the week, eight (15.69%) had price decreases, and twenty-four (47.06%) had unchanged pricing.

On a weekly basis, the following commodities saw significant price decreases: tomatoes (9.19%), onions (2.14%), LPG (1.04%), bananas (0.53%), wheat flour (0.35%), potatoes (0.17%), pulse masoor (0.16%), and bread (0.05%).

Chicken (4.80%), garlic (2.01%), pulse gramme (1.87%), eggs (1.71%), beef (0.93%), gur (0.89%), pulse moong (0.84%), fresh milk (0.45%), firewood (0.23%), and cigarettes (0.12%) were among the items whose average prices increased significantly week over week.

The commodities that saw a year-over-year decline were: wheat flour (31.75%); cooking oil (13.44%); vegetable ghee 2.5 kg (10.42%); vegetable ghee 1 kg (9.85%); mustard oil (8.33%); eggs (5.82%); rice basmati broken (4.15%); and tea package (2.52%).

Gas prices for Q1 (570.00%), onions (96.01%), pulse gramme (40.39%), powered milk (39.11%), garlic (34.61%), pulse moong (29.77%), men’s sandals (25.01%), beef (23.52%), salt powder (23.28%), pulse mash (22.50%), and energy saver (17.96%) were among the commodities whose average prices increased year over year.

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The price of gold has drastically dropped in Pakistan.

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As per the All-Pakistan Gems and Jewellers Sarafa Association (APGJSA), the cost of 24-karat gold per tola decreased by Rs 2,300, standing at Rs 250,500.

A kilogramme of 24-karat gold costing Rs1,972 less at the local market, making it worth Rs2114,763. Ten grammes of 22-karat gold had a price decrease to Rs196,866 as well.

After losing a significant $43 during the day, the rate per ounce of gold on the international market also decreased. It currently stands at $2,370.

On Thursday, the price of 24-karat silver also experienced a decline, falling by Rs60 to settle at Rs2,860 petal.

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