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Experts warn of ‘tough time’ ahead as Pakistan-IMF talks end without agreement

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Pakistan and the visiting International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission failed to arrive at a staff-level agreement after talks aimed at unlocking critical funds needed for the ailing South Asian economy concluded on Thursday with both sides agreeing to continue negotiations virtually.

The mission was in Islamabad since January 31 to sort out the differences over fiscal policy that have stalled the release of more than $1 billion from the $6.5 billion bailout package originally signed by the government of prime minister Imran Khan in 2019.

However, at the end of the 10-day “tough parleys”, Pakistan failed to strike the deal with the Fund mission. Although Secretary Finance Hamed Yaqoob Sheikh confirmed that “actions and prior actions have been agreed, but the staff level agreement will be signed subsequently.”

It should be noted that the IMF’s loan is critical for the country’s $350 billion economy as the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP)-held foreign exchange reserves have fallen to $2.91 billion — enough to provide an import cover of 0.58 months.

‘Atrocious’ strategy

Uzair Younus, director of the Pakistan Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Centre, while commenting on the development, told Geo.tv that the communications strategy of the [Ishaq] Dar-led Ministry of Finance has been atrocious from the very beginning.

He warned that this was “only the latest in a series of fiascos” that have destroyed the ministry’s credibility and undermined confidence in the economy.

The economic expert predicted that a bloodbath will be seen in the markets, as players earlier refrained from assuming fresh positions in the last few sessions on hopes of the revival of the stalled programme.

‘Tough days ahead’

Vaqar Ahmed, deputy executive director at Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI), told Geo.tv that the MEFP shared has a broader framework which hints that in the days to come Pakistan would have to meet certain conditions.

“The Fund has rejected the gradual approach proposal of Pakistan, saying the time for this has gone and Islamabad now needs to do everything upfront,” he said, revealing that the conditions which are currently on the table incorporate all those promises made during the past reviews, including those related to energy sector, power and gas tariff, levy on diesel, and tax gaps.

The economist said that the Washington-based lender first wants to see action on all these things before it concludes the review, their board gives the approval and transfers the money.

“I believe that there are tough days ahead and the government will first have to show that they can walk the line and then probably the IMF will come through and a board level agreement will be reached,” Ahmed said, adding that he thinks all of this will take approximately one month.

‘Implementation time’

Meanwhile, former adviser to Finance Ministry Dr Khaqan Najeeb lamented that Pakistan should have inked a staff-level agreement with the IMF mission before their departure.

“Still, it is heartening to note that considerable progress has been made on the set of policy reforms that are needed to move forward to complete the review,” he said, adding that it was for authorities to undertake the prior actions, complete reading of the MEFP document received to enable a staff-level agreement. 

The former adviser highlighted that dwindling reserves do not leave much option but to expedite this process already delayed since early November. 

“The actions on revenue, energy, monetary and exchange rate management are quite clear along with the need to firm up commitments for external financing from bilateral and multilateral partners. 

“It is implementation time for the country to address domestic and external imbalances and to regain macroeconomic stability,” he maintained.

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The cost of a liter of petroleum increased by much to Rs 8.14.

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Prices for gasoline and high-speed diesel were raised by the government on Monday by Rs4.53 and Rs8.14, respectively, for the upcoming two weeks.

In relation to this, the ministry of finance released a notice.

Diesel now costs Rs 290.38 per litre, while petrol is now priced at Rs 293.94 per liter following the most recent increase.

Additionally, light diesel cost Rs6.54 more per litre, to Rs174.34. A 6.69% increase in price to Rs193.8 per liter was made for kerosene oil.

The impact of the developing Middle East situation and the expanding global market are the main factors contributing to the transformation.

Before the most recent spike, the price of gasoline and HSD had risen by almost $4 and $4.50 per barrel, respectively, on the global market during the previous two weeks.

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Finance Minister Aurangzeb claims that Pakistan and the IMF are talking about a new multibillion-dollar initiative.

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The South Asian country is drawing to a close a $3 billion loan program with the International Monetary Fund that lasted nine months and was intended to address a balance-of-payments crisis that had put it in danger of defaulting last summer.

Pakistan has started negotiations for a new multi-year IMF loan program for “billions” of dollars, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said in a Washington interview, with the final $1.1 billion tranche of that arrangement likely to be approved later this month.

Aurangzeb, a former banker who started his job last month, stated, “The market confidence, the market sentiment is in much, much better shape this fiscal year.”

“We really started talking with the Fund this week to get into a larger and longer program for that reason,” he continued.

A representative for the IMF informed AFP that the organization is “currently focused on the completion of the current Stand-by Agreement program,” which is a nine-month program that is expected to be finished soon.

The spokesperson went on, “The Fund staff is prepared to start initial talks on a successor program as the new government has expressed interest in a new program.”

“Third-year curriculum”
Aurangzeb’s journey to Washington will also include attendance at the IMF and World Bank’s spring meetings, which begin in earnest on Tuesday and have two distinct goals: supporting the world’s most indebted countries and aiding governments in the fight against climate change.

The IMF’s revised World Economic Outlook will be released to coincide with the start of the meetings, which bring together academics, representatives from the private sector, civil society, finance and development ministries, and central bankers to debate the state of the global economy.

Allegations of election tampering plagued Pakistan’s February 2019 elections, resulting in the imprisonment and disqualification of opposition leader Imran Khan and the persecution of his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party.

The unstable alliance that surfaced, headed by Shehbaz Sharif, is currently charged with bringing about an economic recovery through the imposition of several controversial austerity measures.

Aurangzeb stated, “I do believe that we will be requesting for a three year program.” “Because in my opinion, that is what we need to help carry out the structural reform agenda.”

He went on, “I do think we’ll start getting into the contours of that discussion by the time we get to the second or third week of May.”

Keeping the US-China rivalry in check
Pakistan is in a difficult situation as the two nations have started an expensive trade war because of its strong economic ties to both China and the United States.

When asked how the Sharif government intends to handle its commercial relationships with the two largest economies in the world, Aurangzeb responded, “From our perspective it has to be a and-and discussion.”

“The United States is our biggest trading partner, and it has consistently provided us with support and assistance with our investments,” he stated. Therefore, that relationship will always be extremely important to Pakistan.

He was alluding to the nearly 1,860-mile-long China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which was built to offer China access to the Arabian Sea, when he added, “On the other side, a lot of investment, especially in infrastructure, came through CPEC.”

According to Aurangzeb, Pakistan has a “very good opportunity” to participate in the trade war on par with nations like Vietnam, whose exports to the US have increased significantly as a result of tariffs placed on some Chinese items.

He stated, “We already have a few examples of that working.” “However, we must truly scale it up.”

reform initiative

Pakistan is currently engaged in a privatization campaign to sell off its underperforming state-owned businesses (SOEs) as part of the structural reform package agreed upon by the previous government.

The nation’s flag carrier, Pakistan International Airlines, is the first SOE on the list.

In regards to potential bidder interest, Aurangzeb stated, “we will find out in the next month or so.”

He said, “Our goal is to proceed with that privatization and see it through to completion by the end of June.”

Other businesses may soon follow if the government’s privatization of the PIA proceeds smoothly.

He declared, “We’re building a whole pipeline,” and added, “We want to really accelerate that over the next couple of years.”

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Owners of oil tankers stop the provision of fuel in favour of their demands.

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The Association declared on Monday that, in response to what it deemed to be an “unfair” measurement by the relevant authorities, gasoline delivery will stay suspended as of Tuesday.

According to the Oil Tankers Owners’ Association, they attempted to resolve their complaints with Deputy Commissioner Islamabad and Pakistan State Oil (PSO), but to no effect.

The Oil Tankers Owners Association has yelled slogans in support of their demand while parking their containers in the PSO depot.

The owners of oil tankers declared that they would not end their strike until their demands were met, accusing the administration of being to blame for the fuel crisis.

The association requested that the authorities abide by their requests, which included filling under a metered system. It further stated that the deal reached on February 20 had been broken by the authorities.

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