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Pakistan rupee firm as dollar supply matches demand

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  • Analysts see rupee trading in range down the line.
  • Dealers to assess impact of AIIB’s $500 on market.
  • IMF tranche delay remains cause of economic concern.

The Pakistani rupee Tuesday closed unchanged against the US dollar in the interbank market as demand for the dollar and the supply reached equilibrium.

The local unit closed at 223.95 per dollar, according to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), which had finished the session at the same value on Monday — after depreciating Re0.01. 

Currency dealers don’t see the rupee going far from the base as they are currently assessing the impact of the $500 million inflows received from the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) Tuesday.

The SBP received $500 million from the AIIB, confirmed Finance Minister Ishaq Dar Tuesday.

“Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has transferred today, as per their Board’s approval, to State Bank of Pakistan/Government of Pakistan US $ 500 million as program financing,” tweeted the finance minister.

Moreover, dealers said a delay in the arrival of a tranche of the IMF’s Extended Funding Facility may weigh on the rupee-dollar parity in the days to come. 

Pakistan and the IMF talks are continuing, with both sides yet to strike a broader agreement on a revised macroeconomic framework for the current financial year, reported The News, citing sources. 

The lingering of the talks may delay the conclusion of the ninth review and release of the $1 billion tranche till the next calendar year 2023.

The SBP raised its benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 16% in an effort to tame high inflation. The SBP has confirmed that the $1 billion Eurobond repayment that is due on December 5 will be made on December 2.
“This repayment will not have any impact on foreign reserves as the funding has already been arranged,” it said. In addition, $7 billion worth of loan payments has also been rolled over.

Moreover, the Karachi interbank offered rate (KIBOR), a gauge of what banks charge each other to borrow the rupee, hits a record high on Monday, as the money market was surprised by the State Bank’s decisions to raise interest rates by 100 basis points.

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FBR Reforms: PM Leading Reforms Process with Law Minister as Top Priority

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According to Federal Law Minister Azam Nazir Tarar, Prime Minister Shehbaz is leading the entire reform process, and the Federal Government has made the reforms at the Federal Board of Revenue its top priority.

According to the law minister, who was speaking at a press conference in Islamabad, there are presently one billion rupees worth of tax cases pending in court. The parliament has for the first time passed legislation on tax tribunals in an effort to streamline and accelerate the legal process.

He stated that, strictly according to merit, there have already been a few postings and transfers in the FBR and that more are anticipated in the next few days.

Federal Information Minister Atta Tarar, who accompanied the Law Minister, stated that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is spearheading an effective foreign policy through productive meetings with world leaders.

He declared the premier’s trip to Saudi Arabia, where Shehbaz Sharif met with government representatives and corporate executives who indicated interest in investing in Pakistan, a success.

Atta Tarar also declared that a commercial team from Saudi Arabia would be visiting soon.

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Pakistan will host an IMF team in May to discuss a new loan.

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According to sources, negotiations on a fresh loan program have been set between Pakistan and the foreign lender. There will be two stages to the meetings: technical discussions and policy-level conversations.

Prior to the upcoming negotiations, Pakistan must overcome formidable economic obstacles, including the collapse of an IMF-proposed tax amnesty program.

Although it hasn’t worked, the federal government had promised to include 3.1 million merchants in the scheme’s tax net. The recent turnover of senior officials has placed the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) in an atypical position.

The negotiation process with the IMF will be difficult for the new and inexperienced FBR team. The significant drop in FBR’s tax collections would likely worry the IMF.

A day prior, Pakistan obtained the eagerly awaited $1.1 billion last installment from the IMF as a component of the $3 billion standby agreement.

Special Drawing Rights (SDR) 828 million, or $1.1 billion in worth, were given to the SBP “after the successful completion of the second review by the Executive Board of IMF under Stand By Arrangement (SBA),” according to the SBP.

Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb stated Islamabad might obtain a staff-level agreement on the new program by early July. Pakistan is seeking a new, longer-term, and larger IMF loan.

Although Aurangzeb has neglected to specify the specific program in question, Islamabad has stated that it is seeking a loan for a minimum of three years in order to support macroeconomic stability and carry out long-overdue and difficult structural reforms. Should it be approved, Pakistan would receive its 24th IMF bailout.

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In FY2024, SRB tax revenue soars to Rs 185.2 billion.

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In a statement released here, the SRB’s chairman, Wasif Memon, stated that he briefed Sindh Chief Minister Syed Murad Ali Shah about the organization’s revenue collections during their meeting.

In comparison, the tax collection during the same period of the previous financial year 2022–2023 stood at Rs143.3 billion. This achievement represents a 29 percent year-over-year growth, according to the Sindh Revenue Board (SRB), which recorded record revenue of Rs185.2 billion during the first nine months of the fiscal year 2023–2024.

The CM stated at the time that the SRB has shown tenacity and efficiency in revenue collection in spite of facing a number of difficulties, including the general economic downturn.

According to the statement, SRB’s monthly tax collection for April 2024 was Rs18.8 billion, a 23 percent increase from the Rs15.2 billion collected in the same month the previous year.

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