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Pakistan rupee firm as dollar supply matches demand

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  • Analysts see rupee trading in range down the line.
  • Dealers to assess impact of AIIB’s $500 on market.
  • IMF tranche delay remains cause of economic concern.

The Pakistani rupee Tuesday closed unchanged against the US dollar in the interbank market as demand for the dollar and the supply reached equilibrium.

The local unit closed at 223.95 per dollar, according to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), which had finished the session at the same value on Monday — after depreciating Re0.01. 

Currency dealers don’t see the rupee going far from the base as they are currently assessing the impact of the $500 million inflows received from the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) Tuesday.

The SBP received $500 million from the AIIB, confirmed Finance Minister Ishaq Dar Tuesday.

“Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has transferred today, as per their Board’s approval, to State Bank of Pakistan/Government of Pakistan US $ 500 million as program financing,” tweeted the finance minister.

Moreover, dealers said a delay in the arrival of a tranche of the IMF’s Extended Funding Facility may weigh on the rupee-dollar parity in the days to come. 

Pakistan and the IMF talks are continuing, with both sides yet to strike a broader agreement on a revised macroeconomic framework for the current financial year, reported The News, citing sources. 

The lingering of the talks may delay the conclusion of the ninth review and release of the $1 billion tranche till the next calendar year 2023.

The SBP raised its benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 16% in an effort to tame high inflation. The SBP has confirmed that the $1 billion Eurobond repayment that is due on December 5 will be made on December 2.
“This repayment will not have any impact on foreign reserves as the funding has already been arranged,” it said. In addition, $7 billion worth of loan payments has also been rolled over.

Moreover, the Karachi interbank offered rate (KIBOR), a gauge of what banks charge each other to borrow the rupee, hits a record high on Monday, as the money market was surprised by the State Bank’s decisions to raise interest rates by 100 basis points.

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$399 million in airline revenue is being blocked by Pakistan. IATA

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Pakistan and Bangladesh have been urged by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) to promptly release airline profits that are being withheld in violation of international agreements.

“Airlines are unable to repatriate over $720 million ($399 million in Pakistan and $323 million in Bangladesh) of revenues earned in these markets, resulting in a severe situation,” an IATA statement stated.

“Money-denominated expenses like lease agreements, spare parts, overflight fees, and fuel must be paid for in a timely manner by repatriating revenues to their home countries.”

Delaying repatriation raises exchange rate risks for airlines and violates bilateral agreements’ international commitments. In order for airlines to effectively continue to offer the aviation connectivity that both of these countries depend on, Pakistan and Bangladesh must immediately release the more than $720 million that they are blocking, according to Philip Goh, Regional Vice President for Asia-Pacific at IATA.

Pakistan needs to make the difficult repatriation procedure less complicated. According to the statement, this presently includes the need to present audit certifications and tax exemption certificates, both of which create needless delays.

Approximately 425,000 jobs and $2.8 billion in economic activity were supported by Pakistan’s aviation industry prior to COVID-19. Passenger numbers are predicted to increase by more than 2.5 times by 2040 after returning to pre-COVID levels in 2023, according to the statement.

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The IMF executive board will meet on April 29 to discuss the release of $1.1 billion to Pakistan, according to the report.

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The cash represents the second and final tranche of a $3 billion standby agreement with the IMF, which was acquired last summer to avoid a sovereign default and expires this month.

The South Asian nation is looking for a fresh, longer-term IMF loan. Pakistan’s Finance Minister, Muhammad Aurangzeb, has stated that Islamabad expects to get a staff-level agreement on the new programme by early July.

Islamabad says it wants a loan for at least three years to help with macroeconomic stability and to carry out long-overdue and painful structural reforms, but Aurangzeb has declined to specify what type of programme the country wants.

Read more: Pakistan plans to agree on the outline of a new IMF loan in May. Fin-Min Aurangzeb

Pakistan has yet to make a formal request, but the Fund and the government are already in discussions.

If secured, it will be Pakistan’s 24th IMF bailout.

The $350 billion economy is experiencing a chronic balance of payment crisis, with nearly $24 billion in debt and interest to repay over the next fiscal year – three times the amount of foreign currency reserves held by the central bank.

Pakistan’s finance ministry expects the economy to grow by 2.6% in the current fiscal year, which ends in June, while average inflation is expected to be 24%, down from 29.2% in fiscal year 2023/2024. Last May, inflation soared to a record high of 38%.

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PSX surpasses the historical 71,500-point threshold.

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Investors celebrated as the PSX finally crossed the historic 71,500 point threshold, signalling a critical turning point in the state of the economy in the country.

The KSE-100 index jumped more than 740 points, soaring to a record high of 71,650 points, demonstrating the tenacity and optimism that pervaded the Pakistani financial market.

This outstanding accomplishment indicates strong growth possibilities for the foreseeable future and demonstrates investors’ faith in the nation’s economic prospects.

The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX)’s KSE-100 index saw a minor decline of 60.92 points on Friday, or 0.09 percent, and ended the day at 70,483.66 points.

In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar lost value in relation to the Pakistani rupee at the same time.

Currency dealers claim that on the first day of the workweek, the value of the US dollar dropped by 11 paisas to Rs278.20 in the interbank market, significantly strengthening the rupee.

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