Business

Rupee continues to strengthen against dollar as Dar takes charge of finance ministry

Published

2 years ago

Farwa

Rupee continues gaining ground against dollar.
Rupee gains 1.76, closes at 232.12 per dollar.
Analysts cite return of Dar as reason behind increase.

KARACHI: The Pakistani rupee continued Wednesday to gain ground for the fourth consecutive session as the dollar’s slide persisted after federal minister Senator Ishaq Dar took charge of the finance ministry.

In the interbank market, the rupee gained 1.79 to close at 232.12 per dollar, according to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) after it increased its value by 7.53 in the ongoing week.

Currency dealers and analysts have cited that the return of Dar — a close aide of PML-N supremo Nawaz Sharif — to Pakistan to take charge as the finance minister has helped improve sentiment and the fall in international commodity prices boosted the rupee’s rise.

The current account deficit — fortunately — will likely remain in check on account of declining international commodity prices and administrative measures taken by the government.

Inflation, too, has most likely peaked and is expected to come down over the coming months, The News reported.

Talking to Geo.tv, economist and former adviser to the federal ministry of finance Dr Khaqan Hassan Najeeb said the first aspect is a change in market sentiment driven by a leadership change at the finance ministry.

“The new team is regarded to be more conscious of rupee movement and thus leaning to more orderly movement,” the former adviser said.

Secondly, he noted that some fundamentals have improved, especially a decline in oil prices as well as other key commodity prices, which may help reduce the quantum of imports.

“Thirdly, the confirmation by multilateral lenders to extend flood support is a market supporting development,” Dr Najeeb said.

Lastly, a bit farfetched but the possibility of reconsideration and leniency in some conditions by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) due to flood impact is driving a positive sentiment toward the rupee, Najeeb added.

Alfalah’s head of research Fahad Irfan said Dar would not have the kind of free hand he had in his previous term.

“The IMF, in general, has been much stricter in terms of policy implementation. Most importantly, Pakistan now has a free exchange rate regime, even otherwise, the country has record low forex reserves with no room to burn them to control the exchange rate,” he said.

“However, administrative curbs and stronger checks on manipulation and the smuggling of dollars out of Pakistan are still possible,” Irfan added.

He said the rupee was expected to regain some lost ground. However, with the fear of Dar, the pace of appreciation has accelerated.

He noted that changes in key positions, at times of catastrophic floods and an extremely fragile economic environment, might help Dar regain some lost popularity; however, this might slow down policymaking.

Dar maintained the rupee at a parity of 100 per dollar for his entire term (2013-2017) and kept the policy rate at its historic low of 5.75% from May 2016 to December 2017.

This lethal combo was the main reason why Pakistan posted a historic high current account deficit of $19.2 billion or 6.3% of the gross domestic product in FY2018 and eroded foreign exchange reserves to just 2 months of import cover, according to Irfan.

Dar seeks ‘time’ to stabilise Pakistan’s economy

Senator Dar has defended former finance minister Miftah Ismail’s policies as he sought time to stabilise Pakistan’s economy.

In a press conference outside an accountability court, Dar said Miftah is part of the government’s team and his efforts helped save the country from a looming default threat.

“Miftah put in all his efforts and through them, he saved Pakistan from default. The mess that was made in the last three to four years could not be cleared in four months,” he said.

Miftah had to take unpopular decisions, including raising power tariffs and rates of petroleum products, to restart the stalled International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme.

The belt-tightening measures invited criticism from the coalition rulers and Miftah received flak from his party as well.

In a separate conversation with journalists upon his arrival Dar said that he needed time to fix Pakistan’s economy.

Business

Pakistan’s $1.1 billion loan tranche is approved by the IMF board.

Published

2 days ago

Farwa

The cash is the third and last installment of a $3 billion standby agreement with the international lender that it obtained to prevent a sovereign default last year and that expires this month.

Following the discussion of Pakistan’s request for the release of funds at today’s IMF Executive Board meeting in Washington, the final tranche was authorized.

Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) came to a staff-level agreement last month about the last assessment of a $3 billion loan package.

The total amount of $1.9 billion that the nation has received thus far is divided into two tranches: $1.2 billion in July and $700 million in January 2024.

According to Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, Islamabad could have a staff-level agreement on the new program by early July. Pakistan is asking the IMF for a fresh, longer-term loan.

In order to support macroeconomic stability and carry out long-overdue and difficult structural changes, Islamabad says it is seeking a loan for a minimum of three years; however, Aurangzeb has reluctant to specify the specific program in question. If approved, it would be Pakistan’s 24th IMF bailout.

See Also: Pakistan formally requests new IMF assistance

The event transpired on the day following Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s meeting with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, during which he reaffirmed the government’s resolve to restart Pakistan’s economy.

During the meeting held in conjunction with the World Economic Forum Special Meeting, the prime minister announced that he had given his finance minister, Muhammad Aurangzeb, strict instructions to implement structural reforms, maintain strict fiscal discipline, and pursue prudent policies that would guarantee macroeconomic stability and continuous economic growth.

Georgieva was commended by him for helping Pakistan obtain the $3 billion Standby Arrangement (SBA) from the IMF last year, which was about to be finalized.

Business

Macroeconomic circumstances in Pakistan have improved.

Published

2 days ago

Farwa

By virtue of the Board’s resolution, SDR 828 million, or roughly $1.1 billion, can be disbursed immediately, increasing the total amount disbursed under the arrangement to SDR 2.250 billion, or roughly $3 billion.

After being adopted by the Executive Board on July 12, 2023, Pakistan’s nine-month SBA effectively served as a framework for financial support from both bilateral and multilateral partners, as well as a policy anchor to resolve imbalances both domestically and internationally.

According to the official announcement from the IMF, Pakistan’s macroeconomic conditions have improved during the program. Given the ongoing recovery in the second half of the fiscal year, growth of two percent is anticipated in FY24.

With a primary surplus of 1.8 percent of GDP in the first half of the fiscal year 2024—well ahead of expectations and putting Pakistan on track to meet its target primary surplus of 0.4 percent of GDP by the end of the fiscal year—the country’s fiscal condition is still strengthening.

Even while it is still high, inflation is still falling and should end up at about 20 percent by the end of June if data-driven and adequately tight monetary policy is continued.

In contrast to 11.4 per cent last year, the IMF predicted in an official statement that Pakistan’s tax collection and grants will stay at 12.5% of GDP in FY2024.

After remaining at 7.8% of GDP in FY2023, the deficit is predicted to stay at 7.5% of GDP in FY2024.

Business

Pakistan’s fuel prices should drop.

Published

2 days ago

Farwa

At 0423 GMT, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude prices fell 13 cents, or 0.16%, to $82.50 a barrel, while Brent crude futures were down 10 cents, or 0.11%, to $88.30 a barrel.

Both benchmarks’ front-month contracts saw losses of over 1% on Monday.

on line with the worldwide trend, the price of gasoline is anticipated to decrease by Rs. 5.4 per liter on the local market. In the same way, buyers in the Pakistani market may see a drop in the price of diesel of Rs8 a litre.

Additionally, it is anticipated that the prices of light fuel and kerosene will decrease by Rs5.40 and Rs8.3 per liter, respectively.

The finance ministry will receive a summary from the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA), and PM Shehbaz Sharif will be consulted before a final decision is made today.

The federal government raised the cost of gasoline by Rs. 4.53 per liter and diesel by Rs. 8.14 per liter at the most recent review.

At the moment, the price of gasoline was Rs 293.94 per liter, while the price of high-speed diesel was Rs 290.38 per liter.