With the rupee falling to new lows, stakeholders are concerned that the weakening currency could open up Pakistanis to a new round of inflationary impact, which will hit the lower and middle classes the hardest.
No sector of the economy would be immune from the fallout of the steep devaluation of the local currency — which has lost about 20% this year, among the worst performers in the world.
The rupee has gained and lost value in the past and it will do so in the future as well but this time the curve has maintained its upward trend since quite a few months now.
Economists Ankur Shukla and Abhishek Gupta, in an analysis given on Bloomberg Economics, have compiled the reason why the Pakistani rupee was so weak.
The analysts said that the capital is fleeing Pakistan because there is a growing risk that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will not deliver a bailout, which is needed for the country to avoid default in the fiscal year starting from July. They suspected that political unrest was probably one of the reasons the Fund was baulking as the aid has been stalled since November.
They also pointed out the impact of political tumult on the rupee, stating that the country’s leadership has been unstable since Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Chairman Imran Khan was ousted as the prime minister via a no-confidence motion vote in April last year.
“Khan’s arrest this month has escalated the face-off between him and the government, as well as the army,” they noted, recalling that the rupee plunged to a record low of 299 per dollar after Khan’s jailing but recouped its losses and settled at 285 after his release.
Warnings of a massive drop in the rupee are flaring up, with some analysts forecasting another 20% decline is possible. Both economist also cautioned that the currency will likely fall further if Khan and the government continue to clash and if the IMF chooses not to provide loans.
Adil Ghaffar, chief executive officer at Premier Financial Services Pvt in Karachi also told Bloomberg that therupee may slump to as low as 350 per dollar in June if Pakistan fails to secure the loan.
“The rupee trajectory remains subject to considerable uncertainty as market sentiment is fragile,” Farooq Pasha, an economist in Karachi, said, adding that politics will remain the key risk in the near-term until the elections.
Moreover, bond investors are also growing more nervous, with the extra yield they demand to hold Pakistan’s dollar bonds over US Treasuries climbing above 35% points to a record this month.
Pakistan’s dollar bonds are trading at distressed levels, with notes due in 2031 quoted at about 34 cents on the dollar.
The country’s dollar stockpile, which stood at $4.3 billion in mid-May, is also not enough to cover even one month of imports despite heavy restrictions.
Due to the Special Investment Facilitation Council’s assistance, Chinese businessmen are showing a revived interest in Pakistan. Pakistan has recently sent high-ranking delegations to China to promote investment in industries such as renewable energy, medical equipment, leather, plastics, textiles, and plastics.
At port Qasim in Karachi, the Chinese solar panel manufacturer “Renesola Pakistan” intends to set up an assembly plant capable of producing up to 4 gigawatts of solar energy. An electric bike, scooter, and tricycle assembly plant is planned to be established in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa by the Xiamen Sino-Pak International consulting and investment firm.
Pakistan’s renewable energy sector is of interest to Hexing Electrical, and the Ruyi Shandong Group intends to develop textile parks that meet international standards. Pakistan will also see the establishment of factories by Rainbow Industries Limited and Shaoxing Chemical Industry.
An exploration memorandum on shale and tight gas potential has been inked by the oil and gas development business and CCDI.
Relative to 570,692 tons in the same month last year, the data that was made public shows that the exports increased by 71.52 percent to 978,871 tons.
Still, domestic cement sales were down 18% in September 2024, continuing the downward trend.
The month’s total cement sales were 3.540 million tons, down from 3.751 million tons in September 2023, a 5.63 percent annual decline.
In terms of total sales, domestic sales decreased by 19.78 percent to 8.130 million tons between July and September of 2024.
At the same time, 2.140 million tons of cement were exported, a 22.19 percent increase. Even while exports have increased, domestic sales have decreased for the fourth straight month.
An increase in the guarantee sum for qualified depositors of member banks was announced by the Deposit Protection Corporation (DPC) on Tuesday. The increase was from Rs500,000 to Rs1 million.
All of the eligible depositors across the country would be afforded complete protection as a result of this improvement, which was approved by the board of directors of the DPC.
The decision was made with the intention of protecting the interests of depositors and fostering financial stability inside the country, according to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).
A whopping 77.7 million accounts held by member banks are now protected by the DPC as a result of this revised guarantee. This contributes to the protection of about 96% of the total account holders in the banking sector, which equates to approximately 80 million personal accounts.
A number of experts considered that the DPC’s guarantee was insufficient in protecting depositors, particularly during times of economic uncertainty. Previously, the DPC’s guarantee was restricted to a maximum of Rs500,000.
It is anticipated that the decision to raise the limit will boost the trust of depositors and encourage a greater number of persons to interact with the banking system. This means that the decision comes at a vital time.
To ensure that access to this safety net is uncomplicated and uncomplicated, it is important to note that the deposit protection facility is accessible to all eligible depositors at no additional cost.
To emphasize the significance of preserving a healthy banking environment, the guarantee will not be activated until the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) declares a bank to be a failed organization.
The State Bank of Pakistan, also known as SBP Bank Bank depositors are protected by deposit protection charges (DPC) Deposit rates