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Trade deficit recedes by 30pc in July-Nov as imports dip

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  • Imports drop by 20.15% in July-November.
  • 33.6% imports dip in November 2022.
  • Services trade deficit receded by 38%.

ISLAMABAD: The country’s trade deficit in the first five months of ongoing fiscal year 2022-23 fell by 30.14% to $14.4 billion due to a drop in non-essential imports, The News reported Friday. 

According to the monthly trade bulletin of the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), the imports in July-November dropped by 20.15% to $26.34 billion from $32.98 billion in the same period last year.

However, exports were also reduced by 3.5% in the same period to $11.93 billion against $12.36 billion in the same period last year, the PBS said Thursday.

Compared to November 2021, Pakistan imported 33.6% fewer goods and sold 18.3% fewer products abroad in November 2022. In November 2022, exports dropped by 18.34% to $2.37 billion from $2.9 billion in the same month in 2021, while imports dropped 33.6% to $5.245 billion from $7.9 billion in November 2021.

The trade deficit was narrowed by 42.46% to $2.88 billion from $4.99 billion in the same month last year.

A downward trend has been witnessed in the import bill since the beginning of the current fiscal year as imports fell by 10.4% in July, 7.7% in August, 19.7% in September, 27.2% in October and 33.6% in November over their respective corresponding months of 2021, PBS trade bulletin revealed.

Comparing monthly trade performance with the previous month (October), goods exports in November 2022 fell 0.63% from $2.38 billion last month, while imports increased 11.34% compared to October’s $4.7 billion.

Experts predict the export bill might not touch the $29 billion threshold in 2022-23. The average monthly exports in the first five months of the fiscal year are $2.386 billion. The export growth has been affected by local constraints and the slowdown of world economies. Economic policies such as costly bank financing, rupee devaluation, and expensive input costs alongside political instability have played a significant role in the export drop.

It is pertinent to mention that in the last fiscal 2021-22, the economy accumulated a record-high trade deficit of $48.38 billion, registering over a 31% upsurge over the fiscal year 2020-21.

Trade in Services

The PBS also issued economic performance data on trade in services with other countries. The services trade deficit receded by 38% to $812 million against $1.31 billion a year ago in the first four months of the fiscal year. From July to October, services exports increased by 3.97% to $2.26 billion, and imports dropped by 11.8% to $3.1 billion.

Services exports in October 2022 increased by 1.14% to $559 million, while imports dropped by 26% to $730 million against exports of $553 million and imports of $986 million in October 2021. Yearly, the services trade deficit lowered by 60.55% to $171 million in October 2022 against $433 million in October 2021.

PBS data shows that the services exports declined by 2.1% and imports by 1% over the previous month. In September 2022, Pakistan earned $571 million by selling its services abroad, while local businesses hired services worth $737 million from overseas service providers, registering a $166 million deficit.

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Finance Minister: A “big” IMF program is coming for Pakistan.

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Speaking at the Karachi Stock Exchange ceremony, the Finance Minister announced that meetings with IMF representatives would take place in Washington on April 14 and 15.

He applauded the caretaker government’s effort to bring about economic stability and predicted that the nation’s economy would stabilize with improved economic policies.

Muhammad Aurangzeb emphasized that in order to move the country’s economy toward stabilization, structural reforms must be implemented.

He restated that the nation’s recovery from the economic crisis depends heavily on the stock market. The stock market is, nevertheless, trending upward.

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Pakistan is still classified as a secondary emerging market by the FTSE.

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The nation could perhaps be demoted, according to the worldwide index provider, since its index weight has decreased over the previous few years.

Pakistan’s market capitalization peaked in 2017 at $100 billion, but it fell to $21 billion by 2024, according to a Bloomberg research.

It did, however, state that Pakistan’s standing as a secondary emerging market will remain unchanged due to favorable political changes brought about by the establishment of a stable government.

Bloomberg saw Shehbaz Sharif’s election as prime minister, who is open to reform, as a step in the right direction for the nation struggling financially.

Shehbaz Sharif, the president of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, was chosen on March 4 to serve as the country’s 24th prime minister.

With 201 votes, PM Shehbaz defeated Omar Ayub Khan of the Sunni Ittehad Council (SIC) by 92 votes.

over the economy, earlier this month, Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) came to an agreement at the staff level over the second and last review conducted under Pakistan’s Stand-By Arrangement.

The IMF secured a staff-level agreement with Pakistan on the second and final review of the nation’s stabilization program, which is backed by the IMF’s US$3 billion (SDR2,250 million) SBA authorized, according to the official statement released by an IMF team led by Nathan Porter.

The remaining US$1.1 billion (SDR 828 million) of SBA access will be made available following the IMF Executive Board’s approval of the deal.

It was reported shortly after the February 8 election that the newly elected PML-N-led government intended to apply for a new IMF credit package.

Pakistan is anticipated to pursue a $6–8 billion loan program from the global lender, and the IMF will be contacted right once to begin negotiations for this. The sources went on to say that the IMF would have tighter requirements this time.

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PM Shehbaz Sharif: “A plan to digitize the tax system is underway.”

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In an address to the All Pakistan Newspapers Society delegation in Islamabad today, the prime minister announced that plans were in motion to update the tax collection system.

The prime minister added that efforts are underway to broaden the revenue base and that the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) is fully digitizing.

He emphasized that the Tax Excellence Awards were a recent initiative by the government to support female entrepreneurs, exporters, and engaged taxpayers.

The government’s priorities, according to the prime minister, are institutional changes, austerity, domestic and external investment, and privatization of government-owned businesses.

Praiseing the media’s contribution to public awareness-raising and good governance, he called on the sector to successfully communicate the benefits of economic stability under SIFC.

Calling fake news a major problem, he emphasized the need for cooperation to combat it. Additionally, he extended an invitation to the press to back Pakistan’s administration in its endeavors for the country’s growth and well-being.

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