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Rupee continues losing streak against dollar

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  • Massive devastation caused by floods worsens country’s economic crisis.
  • Rupee loses Rs1.64 against the US dollar in interbank market.
  • Rupee likely to continue its downward spiral this week, traders say.

The Pakistani rupee maintained its losing streak against the US dollar at the start of the new business week on Monday, as massive devastation caused by the floods continues to worsen the country’s economic crisis.

The local unit closed at Rs229.82 after losing Rs1.64 against the US dollar in the interbank market, as per the State Bank of Pakistan.

Traders say the Pakistani rupee is expected to continue its downward spiral against the dollar in the interbank market this week as lack of strong central bank intervention and no clear strategy to turn around the economy is depressing investors.

“Emerging currencies have suffered a lot due to the appreciation of the US dollar against the major currencies following relentless Federal Reserve rate hikes and increased safe-haven demand, but the Pakistani rupee’s sharp fall of more than 4% in the last six trading sessions has fuelled investor uncertainty,” said a foreign exchange trader.

The interbank market is tracking losses in the open market. The temporary hold on imports has shifted the problem to smuggling from Afghanistan against cash dollar payments, which has increased appetite for dollars in the open market. Other secondary factors are cash forex requirements for Dubai travellers, declaration of dollars from inbound passengers, severe accessibility issues for encashing in parts of all provinces.

The difference between the Interbank and open market is creating an incentive for the foreign currency accounts (FCY) to withdraw US dollars and sell into the open market. Whereas ultra-low interest on FCY accounts is not helping in attracting fresh deposits, according to the Tresmark’s note.

Analysts do see multiple opportunities for inflows from friendly countries, bilateral institutions, and sovereigns (in the shape of flood aid). There is also a high probability that the mandate with the IMF may be increased by about $2.5 billion. But the energy crisis in Europe is going to test and stretch the global financial markets.

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ECC Convenes in Islamabad: Forum Sanctions Spa Agreement Between PSO and SOCAR Azerbaijan

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Pakistan State Oil and SOCAR Azerbaijan have signed a sale purchase agreement for the delivery of petroleum products, which has been approved by the Cabinet’s Economic Coordination Committee.

The Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb chaired the ECC meeting in Islamabad, where the permission to this effect was granted.

The Ministry of Energy’s Circular Debt Management Plan for FY 2024–2025 was also authorized by the conference. Its goals are to improve financial sustainability and lower liabilities in the power industry.

The committee examined the situation with the increase in prices for chicken and pulses. In order to offer the general public with relief as soon as possible, it expressed worry about the situation and requested that the National Price Monitoring Committee keep an eye on it in cooperation with the Ministry of National Food Security and Research and the Provincial Administration.

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Pakistan has reduced its policy rate to an all-time high.

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There has been a significant decrease in the policy interest rate that Pakistan has implemented. The country’s central bank made the announcement on Monday that it will be lowering interest rates by 250 basis points, bringing them down to 15 percent. This was a record-breaking reduction in Pakistan’s policy rate, which was done with the intention of bolstering the economy, which had been struggling.

Following a significant decrease in Pakistan’s inflation rate, the central bank made this move. It was anticipated in a poll conducted by Reuters that policy rates would be reduced by 200 basis points. There was a forty percent increase in the country’s inflation rate in May 2023, however it has since decreased to seven point two percent in October. The Ministry of Finance anticipates that inflation will continue to decline, reaching a level of between 5.5 and 6.5 percent in the month of November.

Earlier, Pakistan had reduced the policy rate by 700 basis points over the course of four separate measures beginning in June of last year. The economy of Pakistan has been in a precarious situation for a considerable amount of time. The majority of economists are of the opinion that falling interest rates is essential in order to stimulate economic expansion.

By stating that the existing monetary policy will assist stabilize commodity prices and keep inflation between 5 and 7 percent, the State Bank of Pakistan expressed its support for a reduction in interest rates. In addition to contributing to the preservation of macroeconomic stability, it will also contribute to the achievement of economic growth on a sustainable basis.

Jameel Ahmad, the Governor of the Central Bank, informed analysts at a briefing that Pakistan’s bilateral partner countries have promised the International Monetary Fund (IMF) of continuing support for the duration of their current financial recovery program. This announcement was made in conjunction with the announcement of the policy rate decline.

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The stock market rises to all-time highs and crosses the 92,000-point mark.

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The primary index hit the crucial 92,000-point benchmark as the stock market soared to new all-time highs.

A significant increase was made by the hundred-index, which closed at 92,351 points after rising 414 points.

According to analysts, this increase is the result of a resurgence of investor confidence, which has been supported by strong mood in international markets and solid economic indications.

With predictions for more increase as market stability improves, the most recent surge highlights a robust recovery trend.

The market fell from previous record highs due to selling pressure, causing the Pakistan Stock Exchange to see a steep dip earlier today.

The benchmark 100-index ended the trading session down after originally rising 572 points to an all-time high of 92,514 points.

The market finished the day at 91,660 points, down 278 points, unable to hold the 92,000-point threshold after hitting spectacular highs.

Analysts point to investor profit-taking as a contributing factor in the decline, indicating a cautious attitude in the market following recent advances. The market is becoming more volatile, and investors are paying close attention to patterns.

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