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Pakistan’s pace of economic growth to slow down to 4% in FY22: ADB

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  • ADB, however, says growth is expected to accelerate to 4.5% in FY23.
  • “Pakistan’s economy is recovering steadily due to well-coordinated fiscal and monetary responses to the pandemic,” ADB country director says.
  • Manilla-based institute notes that in FY22, industrial growth is forecast to decelerate.

ISLAMABAD: Following a remarkable economic rebound in the previous fiscal year 2020-21, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) projected Pakistan’s economic growth to slow down to 4% in the ongoing fiscal year 2021-22 amid tighter fiscal and monetary policies before picking up again in the fiscal year 2022-23.

According to the Asian Development Outlook (ADO), 2022 — ADB’s annual flagship economic publication — Pakistan’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth is projected to slow to 4% in FY22 from 5.6% in FY21 as the government applies measures to reduce the current account deficit, raise international reserves, and cut inflation.

“Growth is expected to accelerate to 4.5% in FY23 due to stronger private consumption and investment,” the Manilla-based institution projected.

Commenting on the forecast, ADB Country Director for Pakistan Yong Ye said: “Pakistan’s economy is recovering steadily thanks to well-coordinated fiscal and monetary responses to the pandemic.”

“These led to a remarkable expansion in the industry and services sectors. It is key to continue structural reforms along with appropriate fiscal and monetary policies to contain rising inflation and external imbalances. Comprehensive reforms in tax policy and administration are also critical to boosting revenues in order to fund essential public services. ADB is fully committed to supporting Pakistan’s sustainable development.”

The ADB further noted that in FY22, industrial growth is forecast to decelerate, reflecting fiscal and monetary tightening together with significant depreciation of the local currency, and upward adjustments to domestic oil and electricity prices.

Meanwhile, agriculture is expected to continue lending impetus to GDP growth supported by the government’s package of subsidised inputs and increased support prices of wheat and sugarcane.

The Manilla-based institution further added that inflation declined to 8.9% in FY21 but is expected to pick up in FY22 to around 11% due to higher international energy prices, significant currency depreciation, and elevated global food prices from supply disruptions.

As a net importer of oil and gas, Pakistan will continue experiencing strong inflationary pressures for the remainder of FY22 from the jump in global fuel prices resulting from the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

“Inflationary pressures are likely to be less pronounced in FY23, with inflation forecast to drop to 8.5% as fiscal consolidation progresses and oil and commodity prices stabilize,” the report mentioned.

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Pakistan suffers a loss of millions due to inoperable airports.

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The Pakistani economy is strengthening and trending in the right direction, according to Federal Minister of Finance and Revenue Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb on Thursday.

Speaking at the Pakistan Saudi Arabia Business Forum, Aurangzeb stated that the goal of the government was to support the private sector rather than engage in commerce. His goal was to encourage business-to-business (B2B) trade and investment, thus he welcomed the delegation from Saudi Arabia.

Within the last 12 to 14 months, the minister saw a considerable improvement in macroeconomic stability. With the help of foreign exchange reserves sufficient to cover two months’ worth of imports, Pakistan steadied its currency, decreased its current account deficit to less than $1 billion, and produced a primary surplus.

Strong remittances, expanding exports, and a drop in inflation from 38% to 6.9% have all contributed to the consolidation of these benefits, according to Muhammad Aurangzeb. Companies have also profited from the insurance rate reduction.

Even if Pakistan’s credit rating has improved, more work needs to be done to bring it up to at least a B-. Both on the debt and equity sectors, he claimed, institutional flows were returning to the nation.

As the International Monetary Fund (IMF) board approved an extended program for the nation, the Islamabad Stock Exchange set a record high.

He stated that the IMF program will implement structural reforms in addition to ensuring macroeconomic stability for the long run.

The government of Pakistan remains committed to structural changes, sustainable growth, and tax reform, as stated by Muhammad Aurangzeb.

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Pakistan’s economy is getting better, according to Muhammad Aurangzeb

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The Pakistani economy is strengthening and trending in the right direction, according to Federal Minister of Finance and Revenue Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb on Thursday.

thus,Speaking at the Pakistan Saudi Arabia Business Forum, Aurangzeb stated that the goal of the government was to support the private sector rather than engage in commerce. His goal was to encourage business-to-business (B2B) trade and investment, thus he welcomed the delegation from Saudi Arabia.

Within the last 12 to 14 months, the minister saw a considerable improvement in macroeconomic stability. With the help of foreign exchange reserves sufficient to cover two months’ worth of imports, Pakistan steadied its currency, decreased its current account deficit to less than $1 billion, and produced a primary surplus.

Strong remittances, expanding exports, and a drop in inflation from 38% to 6.9% have all contributed to the consolidation of these benefits, according to Muhammad Aurangzeb. Companies have also profited from the insurance rate reduction.

Even if Pakistan’s credit rating has improved, more work needs to be done to bring it up to at least a B-. Both on the debt and equity sectors, he claimed, institutional flows were returning to the nation.

As the International Monetary Fund (IMF) board approved an extended program for the nation, the Islamabad Stock Exchange set a record high.

He stated that the IMF program will implement structural reforms in addition to ensuring macroeconomic stability for the long run.

The government of Pakistan remains committed to structural changes, sustainable growth, and tax reform, as stated by Muhammad Aurangzeb.

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Remittances from Workers

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In September of this year, the State Bank of Pakistan reported that remittances from overseas Pakistanis amounted to 2.8 billion dollars, reflecting a 29% increase compared to the remittances received in September of the previous year.

The SBP reports that, with a cumulative inflow of 8.8 billion US dollars in the first quarter of the financial year, workers’ remittances increased by 38.8 percent compared to the first quarter of the previous year.

Remittance inflows in September 2024 were primarily derived from Saudi Arabia at $681.3 million, the United Arab Emirates at $560.3 million, the United Kingdom at $423.6 million, and the United States of America at $274.9 million.

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