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Gold rangebound in Pakistan as focus shifts to economic data

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  • Gold price settles at Rs177,500 per tola in Pakistan.
  • Price of gold rises by Rs4,800 per tola during week ended Dec 24.
  • Silver price plunge by Rs80 per tola to settle at Rs2,020.

Gold prices in Pakistan witnessed a meagre rise on Saturday in holiday-thinned trading, as market participants awaited economic data for further direction.

According to the All Pakistan Sarafa Gems and Jewellers Association (APSGJA), the price of gold registered a slight increase of Rs200 per tola and Rs172 per 10 grams to settle at Rs177,500 and Rs152,178.

A day earlier, gold recorded its first major drop of Rs3,350 per tola to Rs177,300 in Pakistan, breaking a 12-day-long streak of crazy gains almost every day.

Cumulative, the price of precious commodity gained Rs4,800, or 2.77%, per tola during the week ended December 24.

Pakistan has seen days recently when the bullion recorded a reduction in its price in international markets, but local pricing bodies kept ballooning the commodity price in the country amid high demand and low supply scenario for the metal.

It should be noted that the APSGJA notifies the gold rates to the market every day after determining the price by keeping in view its rates in world markets, the rupee-dollar exchange rate, and demand and supply in domestic markets.

Gold prices have been rising for the last many days and have cumulatively gained Rs16,300 or 10% per tola since December 1, raising concerns about whether the soaring price is sustainable or constitutes an unsustainable bubble.

Analysts believe that the unavailability of the dollar in Pakistan and the widening difference between interbank and open market exchange rates triggered the recent price hike; however, grey markets of the precious commodity have also added fuel to the speculations.

Meanwhile, silver prices plunged by Rs80 per tola and Rs68.59 per 10 grams to settle at Rs2,020 per tola and Rs1,731.82 per 10 grams, respectively.

In the international market, gold prices hemmed into a tight range in thin trading, as cautious traders awaited economic data due later in the day to gauge the Federal Reserve’s rate hike stance. Prices settled at $1,798 after a meagre rise of $1 per ounce. 

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In a first for history, PSX crosses the 77,000 milestone.

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At 77,213.31, the benchmark KSE-100 hit an all-time high, up 1,005.15, or 1.32%, from the previous close of 76,208.16.

The government’s readiness to seal an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) following the budget was cited by analysts as the reason for the upward trend.

Experts anticipate that in an attempt to bolster its position for a fresh bailout agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the budget for the fiscal year ending in June 2025 would set aggressive fiscal goals.

Budget for Pakistan, 2024–2025
Pakistan’s budget for the fiscal year 2024–25, with a total expenditure of Rs18.877 trillion, was presented on Wednesday by Minister of Finance and Revenue Muhammad Aurangzeb.

The Finance Minister, Muhammad Aurangzeb, outlined the budget highlights. He stated that the GDP growth target for the fiscal year 2024–25 is set at 3.6 percent, while the inflation rate is anticipated to stay at 12 percent.

He stated that while the primary surplus is anticipated to be 1.0 percent of GDP during the review period, the budget deficit to GDP is forecast to be 6.9 percent over the period under review.

According to the minister, tax income collection increased by 38% in the current fiscal year, and the province will receive Rs7,438 billion. The Federal Board of income expects to earn Rs12,970 billion in revenue for the upcoming fiscal year.

In contrast to the federal government’s projected net income of Rs9,119 billion, he stated that the federation’s non-tax revenue projections are set at Rs3,587 billion.

The federal government’s total outlays are projected to be Rs18,877 billion, with interest payments accounting for the remaining Rs9,775 billion.

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Pakistan currently has $14.38 billion in foreign exchange reserves.

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Pakistan’s commercial banks’ reserves, which stood at $5.28 billion at the conclusion of the week ending on June 7, rose by US$174 million, according to a central bank statement.

Reserving US$6.2 million less, the SBP now has US$9.10 billion in reserves. The causes for the decline in the reserves it had were not disclosed by the central bank.

The SBP released a statement that stated, “SBP reserves decreased by US$ 6 million to US$ 9,103.3 million during the week ended on 07-June-2024.”

The State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) foreign exchange reserves were reduced by US$ 63 million as a result of repaying external debt, with the reserves standing at US$ 9.093 billion as of earlier on June 6.

The central bank spokesperson said in a statement that as of the week that concluded on May 31, the nation’s total liquid foreign reserves were $14.31 billion.

In terms of net foreign reserves, commercial banks have US$ 5.22 billion of the overall foreign reserves, according to the SBP.

SBP reserves dropped by US$ 63 million to US$ 9,093.7 million during the week that ended on May 24, 2024, according to the announcement.

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In the local market, the price of gold plummets to Rs240,700/tola.

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Gold with a 24-karat purity level has dropped by Rs1200/tola on the local market.

Each tola of 24-karat gold is now selling for Rs240,700, with a further drop of Rs1029 bringing the price of 10 kilos of gold to Rs206,361. These figures are courtesy of the All Sarafa and Jewelers Association.

Meanwhile, after a $2 decline on the global market, one ounce of gold will be valued $2315.

A tola of gold was worth Rs 600 more on Wednesday.

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