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All eyes on budget 2022-23 as Pakistan struggles to revive economy



  • Pakistan braces itself for budget 2022-23 to be presented before National Assembly at 4pm.
  • It will be presented by Finance Minister Miftah Ismail.
  • This is being dubbed by economists as “one of the toughest budgets in Pakistan’s history”.

ISLAMABAD: All eyes are on the Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif-led government as it sets out to present its first budget while the country races against the clock to resume disbursements under a $6 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan programme.

The government will present the budget for next fiscal year 2022-23 in Parliament today, with special focus on fiscal consolidation to contain a budget deficit.

Minister for Finance Miftah Ismail will present it before the National Assembly at 4pm. It is being dubbed by economists as “one of the toughest budgets in Pakistan’s history”.

Despite official claims that the budget will restore stability to Pakistan’s economic outlook, the downside risk is difficult to ignore.

In the run-up to Pakistan’s new fiscal year beginning next month (July), independent economists have begun to forecast inflation of up to 20% over the next 12 months, at least in many key areas. This is clearly a staggering increase from the expected inflation of more than 13% in the fiscal year ending this month.

The upcoming increase will be primarily driven by a recent price increase of about one-third in domestic fuel prices, a 45% increase in gas tariffs, and a 40% to 50% increase in the cost of electricity.

Together, Pakistan’s increasingly expensive energy mix will inevitably force middle and low-income households to tighten their belts as never before. The spillover is set to be felt in increasingly expensive essential services such as healthcare and education — just two key ingredients in the life of any mainstream family. Pakistanis are about to face one of the hardest times in recent history, and no amount of sugarcoating will help.

The heavy cost of a return to normalised relations with the IMF following such unpalatable measures may appear to some as a bitter pill not worth swallowing. However, it is the inevitable bitter pill that Pakistan must swallow to save it from short-term economic ruin. The next IMF disbursement of US $1 billion on its own seems far too modest by comparison to the painful measures about to be inflicted on millions of households. But the value of a restored relationship with the Washington-based lender will come through Islamabad’s heading successfully towards accessing other sources of loans. On Thursday, finance minister Miftah Ismail used his pre-budget news conference to announce an imminent increase likely in Pakistan’s existing foreign currency reserves by about 25 per cent to US$12 billion in the next few days, on the back of a Chinese loan of US$2.4 billion.

Yet, the budget will present Pakistan with two recurring challenges—the matter of meeting tax collection targets and narrowing the divide between exports and imports, to protect the country against another balance of payments crisis. On both of these counts, a restored relationship with the IMF provides a few assurances that Pakistan will successfully oversee sweeping reforms to make a difference. For prime minister Shehbaz Sharif, leading a government that is not too far from the next elections, hardly helps.

Already, the twin combinations of sharply rising inflation and energy shortages displayed in daily lives through the dreadful reality of frequent loadshedding have hardly helped to block official credentials from heading southwards.

In the coming months, Pakistan’s continuing economic challenges will likely deepen the pressure on the Sharif government to maintain recent curbs on imports, to narrow the international trade gap. This will inevitably become the outcome of a situation where Pakistan’s space to pump up its exports will remain limited. As long as oil prices stay high and there is no sign of them going down to more affordable levels, import limits will also be a hard problem to solve.

Pakistan’s economic pain will likely remain in place, and possibly even get aggravated, in the presence of high interest rates. Many independent economists say that if inflation keeps going up, the State Bank of Pakistan will be forced to raise its interest rates even more.

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s continuously rising political pressure for the foreseeable future is set to undermine the country’s economic journey. Former prime minister Imran Khan’s continuing clamour for parliamentary elections ahead of summer 2023, will likely keep the country’s overall atmosphere on the boil. Even if the Sharif government stays in place until next year, Khan’s actions will make it less likely that it will be stable, which will hurt the economy.

When finance minister Miftah Ismail rises in parliament on Friday to present the budget, he may well find comfort in delivering his speech uninterrupted in the absence of opposition members. Yet, beyond a relatively smooth delivery of the budget speech, the road ahead is set to be tougher than any seen ever before in recent times.


PKR on track to become top-performing currency this month: Bloomberg




  • Pakistani currency rose around 6% this month against dollar.
  • Authorities curb leakages happening through illegal channels. 
  • Crackdown on illegal dollar traders helps local currency. 

The Pakistani rupee is on track to become the top performer globally in September as the caretaker government continues its crackdown on illegal dollar trade, Bloomberg reported Thursday.

The local currency rose around 6% this month against the dollar — an amazing feat despite the Thai baht and South Korean won tumbling against the greenback.

Major currencies lost ground against the dollar on speculations that the US interest rates will stay elevated for longer.

The rupee increased 0.1% to 287.95 per dollar on Thursday, after sliding to a record low of about 307 this month. Pakistan’s currency market will remain closed for the Eid Miladun Nabi holiday on Friday.

“Many leakages were happening through illegal channels of hawala and hundi trade from the open market,” Khurram Schehzad, chief executive officer of Alpha Beta Core Solutions Pvt Ltd, told Bloomberg.

“When the dollar rate reverses everybody, the hoarders, the exporters who are holding their export proceeds, start selling their dollars,” Schehzad said.

The interim rulers have intensified efforts by launching a crackdown on people involved in the illegal dollar trade, allowing the currency to gain some lost ground.

The Federal Investigation Agency, Bloomberg reported, conducted raids across the country and security officials in plainclothes were deployed at money exchanges to monitor dollar sales as part of the crackdown.

Caretaker Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar this week said the rupee’s gain is “fostering optimism for stability.”

For its part, the State Bank of Pakistan raised the capital requirements of smaller exchange companies and ordered large banks to open their own exchange companies to make the retail foreign exchange market more transparent and easier to monitor.

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Pakistan issues tender for LNG cargoes to meet winter demand




  • Delivery windows are December 7-8 and December 13-14: PLL.
  • Pakistan faces difficulty in procuring LNG amid Russia-Ukraine conflict. 
  • Natural gas supply dropped by 20% over the last year level.

LAHORE: Pakistan has issued a fresh tender to procure liquefied natural gas (LNG) spot cargoes to meet its winter demand after failing to secure supplies from the global market for over a year, The News reported on Thursday.

The Pakistan LNG Limited (PLL), a state-owned company, said on Wednesday it was seeking bids from international suppliers for two LNG cargoes of 140,000 cubic meters each, to be delivered in December at Port Qasim in Karachi.

The delivery windows are December 7-8 and December 13-14, according to the tender document. 

PLL has the mandate to procure LNG on behalf of the federal government to meet the country’s gas requirements through two LNG import terminals with exclusive arrangements for public sector distribution.

The delivery from the volatile spot market has been an uphill task for Pakistan since the start of the war between Ukraine and Russia in February 2022. 

Previous attempts to buy LNG proved futile mainly due to the lukewarm response of sellers. The growing concern of suppliers about the country’s credit risk has been another headache for a country already plagued by chronic energy shortages.

LNG is crucial for Pakistan, where natural gas accounts for over a third of power generation and local gas reserves are insufficient to address growing electricity demand in a country of over 230 million.

In late July this year, PLL failed in its attempt to purchase LNG too after several such attempts made earlier. A bidding company offered winter LNG cargoes at a premium of as high as 30% of the market price. Hence, PLL decided not to purchase the costly gas cargo due to the extremely high cost.

Last week, responding to a query raised by The News, Energy Minister Muhammad Ali said the natural gas supply in the system had dropped by 20% over the last year level. 

He said this was a huge gap, which would ultimately translate into low gas availability for the end consumers.

“The dwindling gas resources simply mean load shedding for the users,” he said, adding that imports of LNG could lead to bridging the gap, although it is a costly option. 

“We are trying to import as much LNG as possible.” However, the spot rate of LNG presently stands at $15 per unit, and Pakistan is selling it to domestic consumers at $1.5 per unit, which is not sustainable.

To meet the demand of the industry, the minister said the government is trying to import maximum cargoes of LNG. 

Responding to a query about the challenges in the import of LNG from the spot market and how to tackle them, minister Ali said Pakistan is facing two challenges on the import front. 

He said the first is the peculiar nature of the LNG trade where the purchase contract is made before the LNG is produced. 

One way to address this challenge, Ali said, is to have long-term buying contracts to ensure smooth gas imports. 

He said the other way is to try to get gas through government-to-government (G2G) arrangements. Besides having gas supplies under long-term contracts, “Pakistan is negotiating to import cargoes through G2G basis to meet winter demand.”

Talking about LNG spot purchases, he recalled that Pakistan did not get any response in June tendering amid high spot rates. 

“We are now contemplating to invite fresh bids for spot buying to ease winter demand. We are trying to minimise gas shortage in days to come.”

Moreover, talking about the second constraint in the import of LNG, which is the low capacity of gas import infrastructure, the minister said that his government wants to run both existing terminals at full capacity. They are also trying to remove hurdles in setting up more LNG terminals in the country.

One of the new terminals should have been established last year, but it was delayed due to litigation. If the third terminal is to be installed, the minister said they want to give a go-ahead to its construction within the tenure of the caretaker government.

According to a report, Pakistan’s liquefied natural gas demand will nearly triple in five years as its production of domestic gas dwindles. 

The South Asian nation will need 25 cargoes of the super-chilled fuel a month by then, from nine a month now. Pakistan has struggled to secure enough LNG to cover its needs after prices surged to an all-time high last year.

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inDrive now available in five more Pakistani cities




KARACHI: inDrive, a popular ride-hailing service in Pakistan, has now expanded its network to five more cities across Pakistan including Larkana, Kāmoke, Sheikhupura, Hafizabad, and Okara.

In a statement issued by the transport company, the inclusion of these cities reflects inDrive’s dedication to bringing innovative transportation options to both urban centres and suburban areas.

Speaking about the expansion, Senior Business Representative at inDrive Hasan Qureshi said: “We are excited to extend the convenience and reliability of inDrive to residents of Larkana, Kāmoke, Sheikhupura, Hafizabad, and Okara.”

“Our mission is to redefine transportation by providing safe, affordable, and accessible rides to everyone. With this expansion, we are not only enhancing the commuting experience but also contributing to the economic growth and empowerment of these communities.”

PR Manager Sidra Kiran said that their new service offers city residents the convenience of accessing transport from their homes, eliminating the need to search for it. 

“Both drivers and passengers stand to gain significant benefits, including time-saving and the elimination of challenges associated with street hailing. This service addresses issues such as locating rides during odd hours like early mornings or late nights,” she stated. 

She further added: “inDrive ride-hailing presents numerous benefits to drivers in small cities, including flexible opportunities, reduced unemployment, supplemental income, enhanced community connection, and positive contributions to the local economy.”

The launch of the company in these cities would benefit both riders and driver-partners. 

inDrive further said that it remains committed to upholding the highest standards of safety, affordability, customer service, and technological innovation.

inDrive is Pakistan’s premier ride-hailing service and is revolutionising the way people travel. With a commitment to providing safe, affordable, and reliable transportation.

The company allowed riders to connect with nearby drivers with its app.

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