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Alarms raised as food prices push CPI inflation to record 38% in May

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  • Inflation clocks in 1.6% on month-on-month basis.
  • AHL says reading takes 11MFY23 average inflation to 29.2%.
  • Pakistan’s inflation outstrips Sri Lanka’s annual rate of 25.2% in May.

The consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation rate in Pakistan surged to a record 38% on a year-on-year (YoY) basis in May 2023, the highest since July 1965 — barring a few years in between due to the non-availability of monthly records).

Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data showed that CPI-based inflation hit 36.4% in April 2023, while it increased 1.6% in the month of May month-on-month (MoM).

“This reading takes 11MFY23 average inflation to 29.2% compared to 11.3% in 11MFY22,” brokerage Arif Habib Limited noted in a report.

The food inflation in urban areas jumped by a whopping 48.1% in May 2023 compared to May 2022, while the rural areas saw a 52.4% increase in consumer prices year-on-year.

Arif Habib Limited Economist Sana Tawfiq, while noting that inflation reached record levels, stated that on a month-on-month (MoM) basis “inflation clocked-in higher, up 1.6%”. 

The analyst told Geo.tv that the MoM jump was primarily due to high food prices, household items and clothing. 

She added that core inflation continues to rise and crossed 23% YoY during the outgoing month.  

“We expect headline numbers to recede from June onwards with base-effect kicking in. However, domestic food and energy prices as well as further currency devaluation remain key risks to the overall inflation,” Tawfiq warned. 

The latest 38% rise tops that of Sri Lanka, which posted annual inflation of 25.2% in May.

Inflation has been on an upward trend since early this year after the government took painful measures as part of fiscal adjustments demanded by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to unlock stalled funding, which still has not been disbursed.

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Pakistan’s gold prices continue to decline.

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The price of ten grams of 24 carat gold dropped by Rs 1,201 to Rs 205,418 from Rs 206,619, while the price of ten grams of 22 carat gold dropped to Rs 188,300 from Rs 189,400, according to the All Sindh Sarafa Jewellers Association.

Silver, priced at Rs. 2,620 per tola and Rs. 2,254.80 per ten grams, stayed at that level. As reported by the organization, the price of gold dropped by $11 on the global market, to $2,297 from $2,308.

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Price of LPG “slashed” by Rs. 20 per kilogram

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Sources claim that LPG rates have been lowered by Rs 20, making the cost per kilogram drop from Rs 280 to Rs 260.

It is noteworthy to remark that the costs of LPG were reduced by Rs 20 per kilogram earlier, resulting in a total reduction of Rs 40 per kilogram within a few weeks.

The price of liquefied petroleum gas for the month of May 2024 was lowered by the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) on April 30.

The LPG tariffs were lowered by Rs 11.88 to Rs 238.46 per kilogram in accordance with the OGRA’s notice. On Wednesday, May 1, 2024, the new rates will go into effect.

In April of last year, the price per kilogram of LPG was Rs 250.34. pricing reduction of Rs 140.18 has resulted in a new pricing for home LPG cylinders set for May 2024 of Rs 2813.85.

The OGRA reported a drop in liquefied petroleum gas pricing in April. The price of LPG is now Rs 250.34 per kg instead of Rs 256.78 due to a reduction of Rs 6.44 per kg.

The price of the household cylinder was fixed at Rs 2954.03 for the month of April, down from Rs 3030.12, a decrease of Rs 76.9.

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ADB delegation stops by FBR headquarters

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Senior Director ADB Tariq Niazi oversaw the expedition, which also involved Sana Masood, Farzana Noshab, and Senior Public Sector Management Specialist Laisiasa Tora. The meeting included presentations from economists as well, according to an FBR press release.

The officers focused on structural and policy adjustments as they discussed the Domestic Resource Mobilization Program’s implementation at the meeting.

$300 million was given to the Pakistani government by ADB in December 2023 as a result of the hard work and dedication of FBR. Better laws, regulations, and institutional capability for the FBR were established by Sub-Program I.

With the $300 million in funding provided by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to the Government of Pakistan in December 2023, the delegation conveyed satisfaction with the program’s effective launch.

The FBR also underlined how crucial digitization is to recording the economy and boosting productivity in a sustainable way.

In order to promote the Government of Pakistan’s Digital Tax Administration Project, both parties decided to look into measures to improve their cooperation.

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