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Dollar goes down as do yields, yen

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After last week’s clear-out in the bond market, investors are back to trading near-term rate expectations.

With an eye on Wednesday’s US inflation data, traders in Asia nudged both yields and the dollar a whisker lower on Tuesday.

Two-year and ten-year Treasury yields are back below 5% and 4%, respectively.

News aided stocks, with Alibaba (9988.HK) extending gains on hopes that a $984 million fine for Ant Group signalled the end of a years-long crackdown that has hammered the Chinese tech sector.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s visit to Beijing seemed also to meet low expectations, with few signs that testy relations are getting better but also little suggestion they’re getting worse.

The yen is in the driver’s seat in foreign exchange markets, as investors pull back on high-yielding bets in emerging markets that have been funded by cheaply borrowed yen.

Such trades are placed by selling yen for dollars and then dollars for emerging-market currencies such as the peso or the real, so reversing them requires selling dollars for yen. The yen has risen to the strong side of 141 per dollar for the first time in three weeks.

Elsewhere in Asia the extension of a support package for China’s property sector helped Hong Kong developers. The Hang Seng (.HSI) rose 1.5%.

The events calendar is relatively bare until US CPI data on Wednesday and US earnings later in the week, although final German inflation figures and British jobs data are due later on Tuesday.

Economists expect UK unemployment to hold at 3.8%, which is likely to add upward pressure on wages and interest rates.

That seems to be lending speculative support to the British currency, with sterling longs near their highest in five years and the spot price touching a 15-month top in the Asia session.

Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday:

  • British jobs data
  • Final German CPI

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Pakistan’s gold prices are still declining; see the most recent

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The price of 10-gram gold reduced by Rs943 to settle at Rs207,733, while the price of gold dropped by Rs1200 to close at Rs242,300 a tola, according to the Sindh Sarafa Jewellers Association.

In the global market, the price of the precious metal fell by $10 to $2,349 per ounce, resulting in losses.

At 04:48 GMT, the spot price of gold had dropped by 0.2% to $2,354.77 per ounce. In the previous session, prices reached a two-week high.

American gold futures dropped 0.6% to $2,361.

Spot silver decreased by 0.4% to $28.03 per ounce, while palladium remained steady at $978.03 and platinum decreased by 0.1% to $992.89.

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Pakistan and the IMF begin talks for a new loan.

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Pakistan is requesting a $6 to $8 billion bailout package from the international lender over the next three to four years to address its financial troubles.

A mission team led by Nathan Porter, the IMF’s Mission Chief in Pakistan, is meeting with a Pakistani delegation led by Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb.

According to sources familiar with the situation, Islamabad may face more difficult options, such as raising power and gas bills.

Mr. Aurganzeb informed the IMF team that the country’s economy has improved as a result of the IMF loan package, and Islamabad is ready to sign a new loan programme to further develop.

The IMF mission expressed satisfaction with Islamabad’s efforts to revive the country’s struggling economy.

The IMF praised Pakistan’s economic growth in its staff report earlier this week, but warned that the outlook remains challenging, with very high downside risks.

The country nearly avoided collapse last summer, and its $350 billion economy has stabilized since the end of the last IMF program, with inflation falling to roughly 17% in April from a record high of 38% last May.

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Petrol prices are likely to drop significantly beginning May 16.

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According to sources, the government is set to decrease petrol prices by Rs 14 per litre and diesel prices by Rs 10 on May 16 for the next fortnight’s revision.

Last month, the government reduced the price of fuel and high-speed diesel by Rs5.45 and Rs8.42 per fortnight, respectively.

The current fuel price is Rs288.49 per litre, while the HSD price is Rs281.96.

Meanwhile, oil prices fell further on Monday, as signs of sluggish fuel consumption and comments from U.S. Federal Reserve officials dimmed optimism for interest rate reduction, which may slow growth and reduce fuel demand in the world’s largest economy.

Brent crude prices down 25 cents, or 0.3%, to $82.54 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 19 cents, or 0.2%, to $78.07 per barrel.

Oil prices also declined on signals of poor demand, according to ANZ analysts, as gasoline and distillate inventories in the United States increased in the week before the start of the driving season.

Refiners throughout the world are dealing with falling diesel profitability as new refineries increase supply and warm weather in the northern hemisphere and weak economic activity reduce demand.

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