Politics

‘PTI’s popularity is 70%’: How credible is the survey Imran Khan cited?

Published

12 months ago

Farwa

Former prime minister Imran Khan has made a bullish claim, insisting that a recent survey finds his political party’s popularity soaring to 70% in the Punjab province. But the survey Khan has cited, may be based on limited and arguably sketchy data, Geo Fact Check finds.

“Look at this graph,” the 70-year-old leader said, in a recorded video message on Wednesday, “The result of a survey. This tells you that right now the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) is 70% popular.”

He repeated the claim in an interview with Al Jazeera on the same day.

The survey Khan is quoting was conducted by an Islamabad-based think tank, which goes by the name of Republic Policy.

As per the website of the think tank, the poll was conducted between May 10 and 15 in Punjab and its data found that 70% of the respondents it reached out to had a favourable opinion of Imran Khan.

While the former prime minister’s political rivals, Nawaz Sharif, Shehbaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz had a combined popularity of only 18%.

However, neither the think tank’s web portal nor its YouTube channel provides any additional information on the methodology used to collect the information, the cities and rural areas in Punjab it targeted or the sample size of the survey.

Tahir Maqsood Chheena, one of the heads of Republic Policy, told Geo Fact Check over the phone, that 10-15 students, who worked as volunteers, helped him complete the survey.

“I also called people myself,” he added, “People who I knew, as well as sent teams in the field.”

Even more astounding is the sample size of the survey.

Chheena alleged that the think tank interviewed 25 people in each union council of the province. Punjab has over 4,015 union councils, which would mean that the Republic Policy reached out to an astounding 100,375 people in just five days.

“I cannot tell you an exact number of the sample size,” Chheena said, “It could have been 90,000 or 100,000.”

When asked if his team identified people scientifically, based on their income and profession, amongst other things. He said: “We did nothing as such. You have the right to say we did not do it [the survey] properly. Next time we will keep this in mind.”

The Republic Policy conducted a similar survey in March, where it again found Imran Khan’s popularity to be 62% in Punjab, much ahead of all other politicians.

Bilal Gilani, the executive director at Gallup Pakistan, said that in order to determine the quality of a survey it is important to tell the readers the sample size and the profile of the respondents interviewed, in terms of profession etc.

“I saw this survey and it didn’t tell you the sample size or the profiles,” he told Geo Fact Check.

He added that as per the international code of ethics for polling organisations, they must transparently disclose all information about themselves, including what they do and how.

“Even these details are scarce about the Republic Policy,” he said.

What is Republic Policy?

The think tank was launched in November 2022, Chheena said. It is run by him and “some other friends” who are all retired civil servants. Chheena himself is a former police official.

On social media, most of its tweets are favourable to Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI).

Latest News

US Ambassador Donald Blome praises Maryam’s portrayal of the Chief Minister of Punjab.

Published

49 mins ago

Farwa

According to information, Maryam Nawaz was congratulated by the US envoy on being the first female Chief Minister of Punjab during their meeting.

America’s goal to deepen economic relations with Pakistan, especially in the areas of manufacturing, IT, and agriculture, was conveyed by Ambassador Bloom. Maryam’s people-oriented efforts and initiatives were commended by him, who called them “commendable”.

The ambassador received assurances from Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz that Punjab will offer a safe haven for US investment. She emphasised that a stable administration is essential to guiding Pakistan out of its economic crisis and welcomed US engagement in a number of areas.

The Chief Minister also emphasised how her government’s economic initiatives had reduced inflation.

That Maryam Nawaz and Donald Bloome are meeting for the second time is worth mentioning. It was before to her election as Punjab’s Chief Minister that the first meeting was held.

At Maryam Nawaz’s home in Murree, Senior Vice President of the Pakistan Muslim League-N, Donald Blome, the US Ambassador to Pakistan, had a meeting.

They talked on the value of cooperation in a number of sectors, including as commerce, the economy, security, peace, and regional stability, according to the details.

Latest News

Sheikh Rashid claims he doesn’t communicate with the PTI’s founder or any other leader.

Published

2 days ago

Farwa

Sheikh Rashid Ahmed, the president of the Pakistan Awami Muslim League and former interior minister, claims not to be in contact with the founder or any other leaders of the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf.

In an interview with media outside the anti-terrorism court in Rawalpindi, he said that only Shibli Faraz was qualified to discuss talks between the PTI and the Establishment.

Regarding the deputy prime minister position, he stated that Pakistan’s constitution did not contain such a clause. He chided that “only the Jati Umra constitution offers the slot of deputy prime minister.”

He predicted that Pakistan would have an economic crisis within the next two months. “Industrialists are already facing tough conditions and now growers are up in arms,” he claimed.

He claimed that the purchasing of wheat had not yet started and that the general public’s financial situation was appalling.

The former federal minister reaffirmed that prisoners should be released from custody if they are innocent and unrelated to crimes.

He requested that the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) be made aware of the wheat scam right now.

The following two months would be critical for Pakistani politics, thus he asked the administration to reconsider its policy.

Latest News

“I never left PTI,” says Fawad Chaudhry, doing a U-turn.

Published

2 days ago

Farwa

Fawad Chaudhry, a former federal minister, claimed that he remained a member of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI).

Speaking to the media outside Rawalpindi’s Anti-Terrorism Court (ATC) on Tuesday, the former minister claimed that the current administration lacks credibility because of its stance on the Form-47.

The senior lawmaker declared, “If Maulana Fazl ur Rehman and PTI join hands, the government cannot even last for three months.”

He went on to say that an election that was manipulated led to the formation of the administration.

“We want to bring down the political temperature because we are going through a difficult time,” Fawad stated.

The former minister claimed he had not yet shared his narrative because he would do so at the appropriate moment.

“I’m very happy to have met all of my pals today. May we all go forward towards a typical circumstance,” he said in closing.

The prominent politician had previously stated that she left PTI following the bloodshed on May 9 of last year.

In a news conference last year, Fawad Chaudhry, the senior vice president of PTI, announced his departure from the organisation and his intention to take a sabbatical from politics.