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‘PTI’s popularity is 70%’: How credible is the survey Imran Khan cited?

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Former prime minister Imran Khan has made a bullish claim, insisting that a recent survey finds his political party’s popularity soaring to 70% in the Punjab province. But the survey Khan has cited, may be based on limited and arguably sketchy data, Geo Fact Check finds.

“Look at this graph,” the 70-year-old leader said, in a recorded video message on Wednesday, “The result of a survey. This tells you that right now the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) is 70% popular.”

He repeated the claim in an interview with Al Jazeera on the same day.

The survey Khan is quoting was conducted by an Islamabad-based think tank, which goes by the name of Republic Policy.

As per the website of the think tank, the poll was conducted between May 10 and 15 in Punjab and its data found that 70% of the respondents it reached out to had a favourable opinion of Imran Khan.

While the former prime minister’s political rivals, Nawaz Sharif, Shehbaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz had a combined popularity of only 18%.

However, neither the think tank’s web portal nor its YouTube channel provides any additional information on the methodology used to collect the information, the cities and rural areas in Punjab it targeted or the sample size of the survey.

Tahir Maqsood Chheena, one of the heads of Republic Policy, told Geo Fact Check over the phone, that 10-15 students, who worked as volunteers, helped him complete the survey.

“I also called people myself,” he added, “People who I knew, as well as sent teams in the field.”

Even more astounding is the sample size of the survey.

Chheena alleged that the think tank interviewed 25 people in each union council of the province. Punjab has over 4,015 union councils, which would mean that the Republic Policy reached out to an astounding 100,375 people in just five days.

“I cannot tell you an exact number of the sample size,” Chheena said, “It could have been 90,000 or 100,000.”

When asked if his team identified people scientifically, based on their income and profession, amongst other things. He said: “We did nothing as such. You have the right to say we did not do it [the survey] properly. Next time we will keep this in mind.”

The Republic Policy conducted a similar survey in March, where it again found Imran Khan’s popularity to be 62% in Punjab, much ahead of all other politicians.

Bilal Gilani, the executive director at Gallup Pakistan, said that in order to determine the quality of a survey it is important to tell the readers the sample size and the profile of the respondents interviewed, in terms of profession etc.

“I saw this survey and it didn’t tell you the sample size or the profiles,” he told Geo Fact Check.

He added that as per the international code of ethics for polling organisations, they must transparently disclose all information about themselves, including what they do and how.

“Even these details are scarce about the Republic Policy,” he said.

What is Republic Policy?

The think tank was launched in November 2022, Chheena said. It is run by him and “some other friends” who are all retired civil servants. Chheena himself is a former police official.

On social media, most of its tweets are favourable to Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI).

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May 9 arsonists also attacked police on March 8 outside Zaman Park: Mohsin Naqvi

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  • Naqvi says “propaganda” being done on arrest of female PTI workers.
  • Caretaker CM says 2-year-old videos were shared on social media.
  • Punjab IG says police ready to appear before the judicial commission. 

LAHORE: Caretaker Punjab Chief Minister Mohsin Naqvi on Tuesday shared that those who attacked the police in Zaman Park on March 8 were also involved in the rioting that took place on May 9 after Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Chairman Imran Khan’s arrest.

On March 8, the PTI chief planned to launch a rally in Lahore but things turned sour when the interim government-imposed Section 144 within the provincial capital. Following this, there was a clash between the police and PTI workers.

However, today CM Naqvi said that the same people that had clashed with the police on March 8 were also involved in the May 9 rioting.

On the “propaganda” being done regarding the arrest of female PTI workers, the caretaker chief executive claimed that 2-year-old videos were being shared on social media.

He also said that 32 women were arrested related to the attack on military installations in Punjab. However, 21 of those have already been released while only 11 are on judicial remand.

CM Naqvi added that nearly 500 women were involved in the May 9 incidents but the interim government avoided their arrest.

Meanwhile, Inspector General of Punjab (IGP) Police Dr Usman Anwar, while clearing the air on the arrest of female PTI workers, said that the police have videos of people getting arrested on the spot.

He further added that those involved in the May 9 mayhem uploaded videos themselves.

“Various agencies verified with their own camera system. These lists [of people involved] are complete, and action is being taken,” the police chief said. 

He also slammed the PTI for claiming he had sent his men to torch the important installations. “Whoever wants to form a judicial commission can form it we are ready to go before any judicial commission.” 

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PTI’s Shehryar Afridi re-arrested upon release from Adiala jail

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  • “Afridi was released on completion of his ‘house arrest’ period.”
  • Police officials take the PTI leader to an undisclosed location.
  • Shehryar Afridi along with his wife was picked up on May 16. 

Amid the ongoing crackdown against the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) in connection with the May 9 attacks on the civil and military installations, the party’s leader and former state minister Shehryar Afridi was re-arrested shortly after being released from Rawalpindi’s Adiala jail on Tuesday.

Afridi along with his wife was picked up on May 16 from his residence in Islamabad under Section 3 of Maintenance of Public Order (MPO) Ordinance 1960, which enables the government to arrest persons “acting in any manner prejudicial to public safety”. His wife, however, was released later on the orders of the Islamabad High Court (IHC).

Soon after his release from the jail, police officials again took him into custody and transported him to an undisclosed location.

According to the jail administration, Afridi was released on completion of his “house arrest” period under the MPO.

It is pertinent to mention here that the Rawalpindi deputy commissioner has extended Afridi’s house arrest under MPO for another 15 days.

The duo was apprehended after violent protests, triggered by the arrest of PTI chairman Imran Khan from the IHC in the Al-Qadir Trust case, erupted almost across the country.

During the days-long protests, which ended only after Khan’s release, enraged PTI workers allegedly attacked private and public properties, including military installations — the Lahore Corps Commander’s House or Jinnah House and the General Headquarters (GHQ) entrance. At least eight people lost their lives during the violent protests.

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ATC declares Zaman Park search warrant ‘ineffective’

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  • One-time search warrants are not for forever, judge says.
  • PTI chief Khan had moved ATC against search warrants.
  • He claimed LEAs secured warrants with “malicious intent”.

LAHORE: An anti-terrorism court (ATC) in Lahore Tuesday declared a police search warrant for Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Chairman Imran Khan’s Zaman Park residence “ineffective”.

ATC Judge Abhar Gul Khan, while announcing the reserved verdict on the PTI chief’s plea, said one-time search warrants are not for forever.

The PTI chief had moved the court three days back against the search warrants, naming the state, commissioner of Lahore, DIG operations Lahore, SSP operations Lahore, and others as respondents.

In the plea, the PTI chief claimed that law enforcement personnel secured the warrants with “malicious intent”.

“It is most respectfully prayed that the search warrant relating to petitioner’s house situated at Zaman Park, Lahore may kindly be set-aside /cancelled/recalled being illegal, unlawful, inappropriate which lacks the requisite legal parameters for a valid warrant in the interest of justice and fair play,” he said in the plea.

Urging the court to take strict action against the respondents, Khan asked the court to deal with them severely for “their unlawful and illegal misuse of authority under the pretext of the search warrant”.

The authorities had secured the search warrants claiming that they wanted to arrest the “terrorists” present inside the PTI chief’s residence. However, when they arrived there on May 19, Khan refused to allow a search operation at his residence.

The hearing

At the outset of the hearing, the judge asked the commissioner what was the reason behind the law enforcers’ action at Zaman Park. The commissioner said his men went here to remove encroachments.

But, he noted, they had not followed up on the search warrants so far.

The judge asked the investigating officer whether he still needed the search warrants. At this, he said that he would respond to the court’s question after consulting his colleagues.

The court, after hearing arguments, had reserved the verdict.

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