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Gold registers minimal decline on rupee appreciation

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Gold prices in Pakistan registered losses following the rupee’s appreciation against the dollar as the supply of the greenback increased the in the local market.

The price of gold (24 carats) decreased by Rs200 per tola and Rs172 per 10 grams to settle at Rs197,500 and Rs169,324, respectively, according to All-Pakistan Sarafa Gems and Jewellers Association (APSGJA).

Cumulatively, the yellow metal has shed Rs2,500 per tola during the ongoing week — and it has only registered gains once as the movement of Pakistani currency remains volatile.

The precious metal scaled an all-time high of 210,500 per tola on January 30, 2023; however, its price started receding after the situation became virtually better on hopes of revival of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout programme.

Meanwhile, gold price in the international market edged up but was on track for a weekly fall as prospects of further interest rate hikes dented its allure, while traders awaited a US non-farm payrolls report due later in the day.

The price settled at $1,834 per ounce after registering a handsome gain of $15.

Powell showed determination to control stubbornly high inflation, saying that rates would be likely to rise faster and reach higher than previously expected, a scenario that creates a downside for gold, Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades, said.

Bullion is known as an inflation hedge, but rising rates increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset.

“The yellow metal has strong technical support near $1,810-$1,790 an ounce and we may see a bounce back to $1,875 next week,” said Jigar Trivedi, an analyst with Mumbai-based Reliance Securities.

Investor focus shifts to US non-farm payrolls data due at 1330 GMT for further clues on the Fed’s rate-hike path. The report is expected to show that non-farm payrolls increased by 205,000 in February, according to economists polled by Reuters.

If the data is weak, then gold could benefit and might rise to the $1,850-$1,860 range, said Carlo Alberto De Casa, an external analyst at Kinesis Money. 

It should be noted that Pakistan meets almost all its gold demand through imports, and traders follow its international price in setting rates in the country. Jewellers import the metal against the US dollar and UAE dirham before converting its price into rupees.

Meanwhile, silver prices in the domestic market remained unchanged at Rs2,120 per tola and Rs1,817.55 per 10 grams, respectively.

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Pakistan’s $1.1 billion loan tranche is approved by the IMF board.

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The cash is the third and last installment of a $3 billion standby agreement with the international lender that it obtained to prevent a sovereign default last year and that expires this month.

Following the discussion of Pakistan’s request for the release of funds at today’s IMF Executive Board meeting in Washington, the final tranche was authorized.

Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) came to a staff-level agreement last month about the last assessment of a $3 billion loan package.

The total amount of $1.9 billion that the nation has received thus far is divided into two tranches: $1.2 billion in July and $700 million in January 2024.

According to Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, Islamabad could have a staff-level agreement on the new program by early July. Pakistan is asking the IMF for a fresh, longer-term loan.

In order to support macroeconomic stability and carry out long-overdue and difficult structural changes, Islamabad says it is seeking a loan for a minimum of three years; however, Aurangzeb has reluctant to specify the specific program in question. If approved, it would be Pakistan’s 24th IMF bailout.

See Also: Pakistan formally requests new IMF assistance

The event transpired on the day following Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s meeting with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, during which he reaffirmed the government’s resolve to restart Pakistan’s economy.

During the meeting held in conjunction with the World Economic Forum Special Meeting, the prime minister announced that he had given his finance minister, Muhammad Aurangzeb, strict instructions to implement structural reforms, maintain strict fiscal discipline, and pursue prudent policies that would guarantee macroeconomic stability and continuous economic growth.

Georgieva was commended by him for helping Pakistan obtain the $3 billion Standby Arrangement (SBA) from the IMF last year, which was about to be finalized.

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Macroeconomic circumstances in Pakistan have improved.

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By virtue of the Board’s resolution, SDR 828 million, or roughly $1.1 billion, can be disbursed immediately, increasing the total amount disbursed under the arrangement to SDR 2.250 billion, or roughly $3 billion.

After being adopted by the Executive Board on July 12, 2023, Pakistan’s nine-month SBA effectively served as a framework for financial support from both bilateral and multilateral partners, as well as a policy anchor to resolve imbalances both domestically and internationally.

According to the official announcement from the IMF, Pakistan’s macroeconomic conditions have improved during the program. Given the ongoing recovery in the second half of the fiscal year, growth of two percent is anticipated in FY24.

With a primary surplus of 1.8 percent of GDP in the first half of the fiscal year 2024—well ahead of expectations and putting Pakistan on track to meet its target primary surplus of 0.4 percent of GDP by the end of the fiscal year—the country’s fiscal condition is still strengthening.

Even while it is still high, inflation is still falling and should end up at about 20 percent by the end of June if data-driven and adequately tight monetary policy is continued.

In contrast to 11.4 per cent last year, the IMF predicted in an official statement that Pakistan’s tax collection and grants will stay at 12.5% of GDP in FY2024.

After remaining at 7.8% of GDP in FY2023, the deficit is predicted to stay at 7.5% of GDP in FY2024.

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Pakistan’s fuel prices should drop.

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At 0423 GMT, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude prices fell 13 cents, or 0.16%, to $82.50 a barrel, while Brent crude futures down 10 cents, or 0.11%, to $88.30 a barrel.

Both benchmarks’ front-month contracts saw losses of over 1% on Monday.

on line with the worldwide trend, the price of gasoline is anticipated to decrease by Rs. 5.4 per liter on the local market. In the same way, buyers in the Pakistani market may see a drop in the price of diesel of Rs8 a litre.

Additionally, it is anticipated that the prices of light fuel and kerosene will decrease by Rs5.40 and Rs8.3 per liter, respectively.

The finance ministry will receive a summary from the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA), and PM Shehbaz Sharif will be consulted before a final decision is made today.

The federal government raised the cost of gasoline by Rs. 4.53 per liter and diesel by Rs. 8.14 per liter at the most recent review.

At the moment, the price of gasoline was Rs 293.94 per liter, while the price of high-speed diesel was Rs 290.38 per liter.

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