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Gold climbs on third day as rupee pauses its winning streak

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  • Gold price settles at Rs197,000 per tola.
  • Cumulatively, it gains Rs3,800 per tola in last three sessions.
  • Bargain hunters take advantage of recent losses.

Gold prices extended gains on Tuesday near a one-week peak hit in the last week, buoyed by a weaker rupee, while investors looked forward to economic developments that could influence the market direction.

Data released by the All-Pakistan Sarafa Gems and Jewellers Association (APSGJA) showed that the price of gold (24 carats) increased by Rs500 per tola and Rs429 per 10 grams to settle at Rs197,000 and Rs168,896, respectively.

The Pakistani rupee lost 0.24% against the US dollar in the interbank market settling at 262.51, which boosted the precious commodity’s appeal.

The bargain hunters took advantage of recent losses, but the precious metal’s outlook was still clouded by prospects of further recovery of the rupee against the greenback as optimism regarding the revival of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme can boost the currency market’s sentiment.

Cumulatively, the yellow metal gained Rs3,800 per tola during the last three sessions.

Meanwhile, silver prices in the domestic market rose by Rs20 per tola and Rs17.14 per 10 grams to settle at Rs2,150 per tola and Rs1,843.27 per 10 grams, respectively.

In the international market, gold price fell by $12 per ounce to settle at $1,832 on a rise in the dollar while investors awaited US economic data to gauge the Federal Reserve’s interest rate strategy.

The dollar index hovered around its highest in six weeks, making dollar-priced gold more expensive for buyers holding other currencies. 

“Gold’s primary driver remains the shifting expectations surrounding the Fed’s next policy moves, with perhaps more clues to be found within the upcoming FOMC minutes release,” said Han Tan, chief market analyst at Exinity.

“Should the US economy continue defying the Fed’s rate hikes, that could invite a higher peak for US rates, much to the chagrin of bullion bulls.”

The focus this week will be on the release of the Federal Open Market Committee’s January meeting minutes on Wednesday, followed by US gross domestic product data on Thursday and Friday’s core PCE price index.

Gold prices hit their highest since April 2022 early this month at $1,959.60, but have since lost around $130 after US data showed signs of a resilient economy.

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Over 500 points are lost by PSX stocks during intraday trading.

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The market saw a bearish trend as it dropped more than 500 points, just hours after Pakistan’s Stock Exchange (PSX) reached a new milestone by reaching the 73,000 mark.

As compared to the previous close of 72,742.75 points, the KSE-100 index dropped to 72,177.22 points, or 565.52 points, or 0.78% lower.
Expectations of an interest rate drop of up to 100 basis points during today’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, according to Intermarket Securities director of research CFA Muhammad Saad Ali, are driving market confidence.

The market is also being driven, he continued, by favourable news flow on upcoming negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a new programme.

Last Friday, the late-session purchasing fueled a 1% advance in the stocks, which helped them close close to 73,000 points. Dealers reported this.

Closed at 72,742.75 points on Friday, the benchmark KSE-100 index saw a gain of 771.35 points, or 1.07%.

Notwithstanding the turbulent session, according to Chase Securities analyst Muhammad Rizwan, “the market rebounded with a strong start and achieved a new all-time high.”.

“This impressive performance was driven by significant contributions from various sectors: fertiliser added 386 points, commercial banks contributed 174 points, the power sector provided 112 points, and cement added 93 points, collectively reversing the previous negative close and boosting market sentiment.”

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Despite global tides, Pakistan’s economy is recovering, according to Governor SBP

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Ahmad, who was speaking at the ICMA Pakistan Members Convocation, emphasised the country’s economy’s outstanding development while also highlighting the difficult macroeconomic environment of the previous year, which was marked by rising inflation, depleting foreign exchange reserves, pressure on exchange rates, and increased uncertainty.

Nonetheless, in the present times, the PKR has stabilized and the stock market is rising to unprecedented heights, reserves have increased to around US$8 billion despite large debt repayments, and inflation is dramatically decreasing.

Ahmad gave the government and SBP credit for their unwavering commitment to addressing macroeconomic difficulties head-on for this reversal.

Ahmad emphasized that the government’s efforts to reduce spending and achieve fiscal consolidation, together with the need for unpopular but necessary actions like the SBP’s increase of the policy rate to 22%, are producing beneficial results.

As global shocks like climate change, technology improvements, and cyber threats become more complex, he emphasises the significance of new viewpoints and creative solutions in tackling long-standing economic concerns.

Congratulating the graduating accounting professionals, Ahmad emphasized the importance of having a thorough understanding of accounting, finance, and economics in order to create workable solutions. He also urged the professionals to take a proactive approach to addressing new difficulties.

Ahmad emphasized the value of leadership abilities in policymaking and urged graduates to positively impact Pakistan’s economic landscape by working hard, being devoted to excellence, and contributing their full effort.

Along with giving a hearty welcome to Governor Jameel Ahmad and other SBP dignitaries, ICMA Pakistan President Shehzad Ahmed Malik also praised the SBP team’s efforts to stabilize the currency. With that, Ahmad presented the graduating CMAs with their degrees.

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The IMF board is anticipated to approve Pakistan’s $1.1 billion payout today.

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The IMF executive board meeting is scheduled to go until May 3, according to specifics. Based on the sources, it is expected that the international lender will approve Pakistan’s $1.1 billion payout today.

The State Bank of Pakistan is anticipated to obtain the final tranche from the IMF tomorrow, following approval, they added.

On July 12, 2023, Pakistan took advantage of a $3 billion loan package offered by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Thus far, Pakistan has been granted two installments totaling $1.9 billion: $1.2 billion in July and $700 million in January 2024.

On the last assessment of a $3 billion loan plan, Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) came to a staff-level agreement last month.

Following their week-long visit to Islamabad, which ended on March 19, the IMF delegation made the announcement.

Global lender expressed its optimism that the incoming caretaker administration and central bank of Pakistan would persist in their efforts to stabilize the country’s economy, complimenting them on their “strong program implementation.”

In order to further solidify economic and financial stability, the new government is dedicated to carrying out the policy initiatives that were initiated under the existing Stand-By Arrangement for the balance of this year, the IMF official stated.

In June of last year, the IMF granted Pakistan’s economic stabilization program support through a critical nine-month agreement.

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