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Pakistan plans to quadruple domestic coal-fired power, move away from gas

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  • Energy minister says LNG is no longer part of long-term plan.
  • Country plans increasing domestic coal-fired power capacity to 10GW in medium-term. 
  • Pakistan’s annual LNG imports fell to lowest levels in five years.

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming years, its energy minister told Reuters on Monday, as it seeks to ease a crippling foreign-exchange crisis.

A shortage of natural gas, which accounts for over a third of the country’s power output, plunged large areas into hours of darkness last year. A surge in global prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and an onerous economic crisis had made LNG unaffordable for Pakistan.

“LNG is no longer part of the long-term plan,” Pakistan Energy Minister Khurram Dastgir Khan told Reuters, adding that the country plans to increase domestic coal-fired power capacity to 10 gigawatts (GW) in the medium-term, from 2.31 GW currently.

Pakistan’s plan to switch to coal to provide its citizens reliable electricity underscores challenges in drafting effective decarbonisation strategies, at a time when some developing countries are struggling to keep lights on.

Despite power demand increasing in 2022, Pakistan’s annual LNG imports fell to the lowest levels in five years as European buyers elbowed out price-sensitive consumers.

“We have some of the world’s most efficient regasified LNG-based power plants. But we don’t have the gas to run them,” Dastgir said in an interview.

The South Asian nation, which is battling a wrenching economic crisis and is in dire need of funds, is seeking to reduce the value of its fuel imports and protect itself from geopolitical shocks, he said.

Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank have fallen to $2.9 billion, barely enough to cover three weeks of imports.

“It’s this question of not just being able to generate energy cheaply, but also with domestic sources, that is very important,” Dastgir said.

The Shanghai Electric Thar plant, a 1.32 GW capacity plant that runs on domestic coal and is funded under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), started producing power last week. The CPEC is a part of Beijing’s global Belt and Road Initiative.

In addition to the coal-fired plants, Pakistan also plans to boost its solar, hydro and nuclear power fleet, Dastgir said, without elaborating.

If the proposed plants are constructed, it could also widen the gap between Pakistan’s power demand and installed power generation capacity, potentially forcing the country to idle plants.

The maximum power demand met by Pakistan during the year ended June 2022 was 28.25 GW, more than 35% lower than power generation capacity of 43.77 GW.

It was not immediately clear how Pakistan will finance the proposed coal fleet, but Dastgir said setting up new plants will depend on “investor interest,” which he expects to increase when newly commissioned coal-fired plants are proved viable.

Financial institutions in China and Japan, which are among the biggest financiers of coal units in developing countries, have been backing out of funding fossil-fuel projects in recent years amid pressure from activists and Western governments.

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Over 500 points are lost by PSX stocks during intraday trading.

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The market saw a bearish trend as it dropped more than 500 points, just hours after Pakistan’s Stock Exchange (PSX) reached a new milestone by reaching the 73,000 mark.

As compared to the previous close of 72,742.75 points, the KSE-100 index dropped to 72,177.22 points, or 565.52 points, or 0.78% lower.
Expectations of an interest rate drop of up to 100 basis points during today’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, according to Intermarket Securities director of research CFA Muhammad Saad Ali, are driving market confidence.

The market is also being driven, he continued, by favourable news flow on upcoming negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a new programme.

Last Friday, the late-session purchasing fueled a 1% advance in the stocks, which helped them close close to 73,000 points. Dealers reported this.

Closed at 72,742.75 points on Friday, the benchmark KSE-100 index saw a gain of 771.35 points, or 1.07%.

Notwithstanding the turbulent session, according to Chase Securities analyst Muhammad Rizwan, “the market rebounded with a strong start and achieved a new all-time high.”.

“This impressive performance was driven by significant contributions from various sectors: fertiliser added 386 points, commercial banks contributed 174 points, the power sector provided 112 points, and cement added 93 points, collectively reversing the previous negative close and boosting market sentiment.”

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Despite global tides, Pakistan’s economy is recovering, according to Governor SBP

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Ahmad, who was speaking at the ICMA Pakistan Members Convocation, emphasised the country’s economy’s outstanding development while also highlighting the difficult macroeconomic environment of the previous year, which was marked by rising inflation, depleting foreign exchange reserves, pressure on exchange rates, and increased uncertainty.

Nonetheless, in the present times, the PKR has stabilized and the stock market is rising to unprecedented heights, reserves have increased to around US$8 billion despite large debt repayments, and inflation is dramatically decreasing.

Ahmad gave the government and SBP credit for their unwavering commitment to addressing macroeconomic difficulties head-on for this reversal.

Ahmad emphasized that the government’s efforts to reduce spending and achieve fiscal consolidation, together with the need for unpopular but necessary actions like the SBP’s increase of the policy rate to 22%, are producing beneficial results.

As global shocks like climate change, technology improvements, and cyber threats become more complex, he emphasises the significance of new viewpoints and creative solutions in tackling long-standing economic concerns.

Congratulating the graduating accounting professionals, Ahmad emphasized the importance of having a thorough understanding of accounting, finance, and economics in order to create workable solutions. He also urged the professionals to take a proactive approach to addressing new difficulties.

Ahmad emphasized the value of leadership abilities in policymaking and urged graduates to positively impact Pakistan’s economic landscape by working hard, being devoted to excellence, and contributing their full effort.

Along with giving a hearty welcome to Governor Jameel Ahmad and other SBP dignitaries, ICMA Pakistan President Shehzad Ahmed Malik also praised the SBP team’s efforts to stabilize the currency. With that, Ahmad presented the graduating CMAs with their degrees.

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The IMF board is anticipated to approve Pakistan’s $1.1 billion payout today.

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The IMF executive board meeting is scheduled to go until May 3, according to specifics. Based on the sources, it is expected that the international lender will approve Pakistan’s $1.1 billion payout today.

The State Bank of Pakistan is anticipated to obtain the final tranche from the IMF tomorrow, following approval, they added.

On July 12, 2023, Pakistan took advantage of a $3 billion loan package offered by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Thus far, Pakistan has been granted two installments totaling $1.9 billion: $1.2 billion in July and $700 million in January 2024.

On the last assessment of a $3 billion loan plan, Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) came to a staff-level agreement last month.

Following their week-long visit to Islamabad, which ended on March 19, the IMF delegation made the announcement.

Global lender expressed its optimism that the incoming caretaker administration and central bank of Pakistan would persist in their efforts to stabilize the country’s economy, complimenting them on their “strong program implementation.”

In order to further solidify economic and financial stability, the new government is dedicated to carrying out the policy initiatives that were initiated under the existing Stand-By Arrangement for the balance of this year, the IMF official stated.

In June of last year, the IMF granted Pakistan’s economic stabilization program support through a critical nine-month agreement.

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