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Gold takes a breather in Pakistan, falls Rs2,800 per tola

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  • Russian delegation comprises 80 members. 
  • Team to arrive in Pakistan on January 17. 
  • Both sides to deliberate settlement of Pakistan’s debt to Russia.

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is set to to hold bilateral talks with a Russian delegation, arriving tomorrow, on an oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade deal for a long-term basis and the much-touted flagship $3 billion Pakistan Stream Gas Pipeline (PSGP) project, The News reported Monday citing senior officials of the Energy Ministry.

The delegation, comprising 80 members, will arrive in Pakistan on January 17 for three-day bilateral talks under the forum of the Inter-Governmental Commission (IGC).

“The Pakistani side will be headed by Federal Minister Sardar Ayaz Sadiq for the IGC talks. For the import of Russian oil and LNG on a GtG basis, both countries need to first negotiate the IGA (inter-governmental agreement) as had been finalised and inked in the case of the Pakistan Stream Gas Pipeline Project (PSGP), which was earlier called the North-South Gas pipeline project,” they said.

When former prime minister Imran Khan had visited Moscow on February 24, 2022, the draft of the shareholding and facilitation agreement for PSGP was not finalised. Both sides wanted to sign the PSGP deal during the Imran-Putin meeting but it did not happen because of a disagreement on some clauses of the shareholding agreement from experts from both sides.

Right now, the G7 countries have imposed a price cap of $60 per barrel on Russian crude oil with a ban on Russian ships for oil transportation. In return, Moscow said it would ban oil sales to countries that join a Western price cap on the country’s crude.

During the talks, the Pakistan side needs to discuss the shipping cost, the premium by shipping trader, insurance cover and mode of payment.

However, the agenda of the IGC unfolds cooperation in areas of trade and investments, including agriculture, energy, customs, industry, education, science and technology, information and communication technologies, communication, roads and postal service, railways, and finance. A settlement of Pakistan’s debt to Russia will also be deliberated.

Both sides will also discuss prospects of cooperation in the field of electric power, hydropower, renewable energy sources and oil and gas production.

Discounted crude oil

On December 5, 2022, Minister of State (Petroleum Division) Musadik Malik said Russia had agreed to provide crude oil as well as petrol and diesel to Pakistan at discounted rates.

“Our visit to Russia turned out to be more productive than expected,” Malik said. He added that Russia did not have LNG. “Talks with Russia private firms are underway for the import of LNG, while we have also engaged Russia’s state LNG producers,” Malik said.

According to the state minister, significant progress was made in talks over the pipeline projects with Moscow.

On its visit to Russia, Pakistan had asked for a 30-40% discount on Russian crude oil during talks in Moscow, but the Russians said they could not offer anything right now as all volumes were committed.

During talks on the gas pipeline projects, Moscow asked Pakistan to first honour its commitment to the flagship project of the Pakistan Stream Gas Pipeline (PSGP) to be laid down from Karachi to Lahore, Punjab.

In their response, the Pakistani team proposed to change the model of the PSGP project. The Russian side said that the model of the project under GtG (government-to-government) arrangement had already been settled, save for some clauses of the shareholding agreement, which would soon be finalised. 

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Pakistan’s $1.1 billion loan tranche is approved by the IMF board.

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The cash is the third and last installment of a $3 billion standby agreement with the international lender that it obtained to prevent a sovereign default last year and that expires this month.

Following the discussion of Pakistan’s request for the release of funds at today’s IMF Executive Board meeting in Washington, the final tranche was authorized.

Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) came to a staff-level agreement last month about the last assessment of a $3 billion loan package.

The total amount of $1.9 billion that the nation has received thus far is divided into two tranches: $1.2 billion in July and $700 million in January 2024.

According to Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, Islamabad could have a staff-level agreement on the new program by early July. Pakistan is asking the IMF for a fresh, longer-term loan.

In order to support macroeconomic stability and carry out long-overdue and difficult structural changes, Islamabad says it is seeking a loan for a minimum of three years; however, Aurangzeb has reluctant to specify the specific program in question. If approved, it would be Pakistan’s 24th IMF bailout.

See Also: Pakistan formally requests new IMF assistance

The event transpired on the day following Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s meeting with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, during which he reaffirmed the government’s resolve to restart Pakistan’s economy.

During the meeting held in conjunction with the World Economic Forum Special Meeting, the prime minister announced that he had given his finance minister, Muhammad Aurangzeb, strict instructions to implement structural reforms, maintain strict fiscal discipline, and pursue prudent policies that would guarantee macroeconomic stability and continuous economic growth.

Georgieva was commended by him for helping Pakistan obtain the $3 billion Standby Arrangement (SBA) from the IMF last year, which was about to be finalized.

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Macroeconomic circumstances in Pakistan have improved.

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By virtue of the Board’s resolution, SDR 828 million, or roughly $1.1 billion, can be disbursed immediately, increasing the total amount disbursed under the arrangement to SDR 2.250 billion, or roughly $3 billion.

After being adopted by the Executive Board on July 12, 2023, Pakistan’s nine-month SBA effectively served as a framework for financial support from both bilateral and multilateral partners, as well as a policy anchor to resolve imbalances both domestically and internationally.

According to the official announcement from the IMF, Pakistan’s macroeconomic conditions have improved during the program. Given the ongoing recovery in the second half of the fiscal year, growth of two percent is anticipated in FY24.

With a primary surplus of 1.8 percent of GDP in the first half of the fiscal year 2024—well ahead of expectations and putting Pakistan on track to meet its target primary surplus of 0.4 percent of GDP by the end of the fiscal year—the country’s fiscal condition is still strengthening.

Even while it is still high, inflation is still falling and should end up at about 20 percent by the end of June if data-driven and adequately tight monetary policy is continued.

In contrast to 11.4 per cent last year, the IMF predicted in an official statement that Pakistan’s tax collection and grants will stay at 12.5% of GDP in FY2024.

After remaining at 7.8% of GDP in FY2023, the deficit is predicted to stay at 7.5% of GDP in FY2024.

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Pakistan’s fuel prices should drop.

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At 0423 GMT, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude prices fell 13 cents, or 0.16%, to $82.50 a barrel, while Brent crude futures were down 10 cents, or 0.11%, to $88.30 a barrel.

Both benchmarks’ front-month contracts saw losses of over 1% on Monday.

on line with the worldwide trend, the price of gasoline is anticipated to decrease by Rs. 5.4 per liter on the local market. In the same way, buyers in the Pakistani market may see a drop in the price of diesel of Rs8 a litre.

Additionally, it is anticipated that the prices of light fuel and kerosene will decrease by Rs5.40 and Rs8.3 per liter, respectively.

The finance ministry will receive a summary from the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA), and PM Shehbaz Sharif will be consulted before a final decision is made today.

The federal government raised the cost of gasoline by Rs. 4.53 per liter and diesel by Rs. 8.14 per liter at the most recent review.

At the moment, the price of gasoline was Rs 293.94 per liter, while the price of high-speed diesel was Rs 290.38 per liter.

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