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Gold extends losses to third day, price declines by Rs1,000 per tola

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  • Gold price settles at Rs146,400 per tola in Pakistan.
  • Cumulatively, gold has lost Rs4,000 per tola in last three sessions.
  • Demand for gold picked up pace as wedding season kicks off.

KARACHI: Gold extended losses into a third session on Saturday, closing slightly above the threshold of Rs146,000 per tola, contrary to the price movement in the international market and expectations that economic recovery could sap inflationary pressure, curbing the metal’s appeal as a hedge.

Data released by the All Pakistan Sarafa Gems and Jewellers Association (APSGJA) showed that the price of the precious metal declined by Rs1,00 per tola and Rs858 per 10 grams to settle at Rs146,400 per tola and Rs125,514 per 10 grams, respectively.

Cumulatively, the precious commodity has lost around Rs4,000 per tola in the last three sessions. Meanwhile, it lost Rs950 per tola during the week ending October 22.

Pakistan is a small market for gold at the global level. It meets the commodity’s demand through imports as it does not produce the precious metal locally.

Accordingly, the gold price for local markets is determined by keeping in view its prices in world markets, rupee-dollar exchange rate, and demand and supply in domestic markets.

The latest price for local markets was determined to keep in view the prices at which trade took place among buyers and sellers.

On the physical side, demand for gold in Pakistan picked up pace this week as some consumers bought into a retreat in domestic prices as the wedding season kicks off.

In the international market, the price of the yellow metal surged by $35 per ounce settling at $1,658 as the dollar weakened amid reports of a potential debate amongst the US Federal Reserve officials about the pace of rate hikes.

Gold is sensitive to rising interest rates, which increase the opportunity cost of holding bullion that does not pay interest.

The precious commodity’s rates in Pakistan are around Rs700 below the cost compared to the rate in the Dubai market.

Meanwhile, silver prices in the domestic market declined by Rs10 per tola and Rs8.56 per 10 grams to settle at Rs1,580 per tola and Rs1,354.60 per 10 grams.

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Pakistan’s $1.1 billion loan tranche is approved by the IMF board.

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The cash is the third and last installment of a $3 billion standby agreement with the international lender that it obtained to prevent a sovereign default last year and that expires this month.

Following the discussion of Pakistan’s request for the release of funds at today’s IMF Executive Board meeting in Washington, the final tranche was authorized.

Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) came to a staff-level agreement last month about the last assessment of a $3 billion loan package.

The total amount of $1.9 billion that the nation has received thus far is divided into two tranches: $1.2 billion in July and $700 million in January 2024.

According to Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, Islamabad could have a staff-level agreement on the new program by early July. Pakistan is asking the IMF for a fresh, longer-term loan.

In order to support macroeconomic stability and carry out long-overdue and difficult structural changes, Islamabad says it is seeking a loan for a minimum of three years; however, Aurangzeb has reluctant to specify the specific program in question. If approved, it would be Pakistan’s 24th IMF bailout.

See Also: Pakistan formally requests new IMF assistance

The event transpired on the day following Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s meeting with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, during which he reaffirmed the government’s resolve to restart Pakistan’s economy.

During the meeting held in conjunction with the World Economic Forum Special Meeting, the prime minister announced that he had given his finance minister, Muhammad Aurangzeb, strict instructions to implement structural reforms, maintain strict fiscal discipline, and pursue prudent policies that would guarantee macroeconomic stability and continuous economic growth.

Georgieva was commended by him for helping Pakistan obtain the $3 billion Standby Arrangement (SBA) from the IMF last year, which was about to be finalized.

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Macroeconomic circumstances in Pakistan have improved.

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By virtue of the Board’s resolution, SDR 828 million, or roughly $1.1 billion, can be disbursed immediately, increasing the total amount disbursed under the arrangement to SDR 2.250 billion, or roughly $3 billion.

After being adopted by the Executive Board on July 12, 2023, Pakistan’s nine-month SBA effectively served as a framework for financial support from both bilateral and multilateral partners, as well as a policy anchor to resolve imbalances both domestically and internationally.

According to the official announcement from the IMF, Pakistan’s macroeconomic conditions have improved during the program. Given the ongoing recovery in the second half of the fiscal year, growth of two percent is anticipated in FY24.

With a primary surplus of 1.8 percent of GDP in the first half of the fiscal year 2024—well ahead of expectations and putting Pakistan on track to meet its target primary surplus of 0.4 percent of GDP by the end of the fiscal year—the country’s fiscal condition is still strengthening.

Even while it is still high, inflation is still falling and should end up at about 20 percent by the end of June if data-driven and adequately tight monetary policy is continued.

In contrast to 11.4 per cent last year, the IMF predicted in an official statement that Pakistan’s tax collection and grants will stay at 12.5% of GDP in FY2024.

After remaining at 7.8% of GDP in FY2023, the deficit is predicted to stay at 7.5% of GDP in FY2024.

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Pakistan’s fuel prices should drop.

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At 0423 GMT, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude prices fell 13 cents, or 0.16%, to $82.50 a barrel, while Brent crude futures were down 10 cents, or 0.11%, to $88.30 a barrel.

Both benchmarks’ front-month contracts saw losses of over 1% on Monday.

on line with the worldwide trend, the price of gasoline is anticipated to decrease by Rs. 5.4 per liter on the local market. In the same way, buyers in the Pakistani market may see a drop in the price of diesel of Rs8 a litre.

Additionally, it is anticipated that the prices of light fuel and kerosene will decrease by Rs5.40 and Rs8.3 per liter, respectively.

The finance ministry will receive a summary from the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA), and PM Shehbaz Sharif will be consulted before a final decision is made today.

The federal government raised the cost of gasoline by Rs. 4.53 per liter and diesel by Rs. 8.14 per liter at the most recent review.

At the moment, the price of gasoline was Rs 293.94 per liter, while the price of high-speed diesel was Rs 290.38 per liter.

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