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Rupee slide slows down due to current account numbers

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  • Rupee closes at 220.95 after losing 0.03% in interbank market.
  • Analyst says rupee’s outlook has improved significantly.
  • Since the start of fiscal year 2022-23, rupee has lost Rs16.1.

KARACHI: The downward slide of the Pakistani rupee slowed on Thursday as the encouraging current account deficit number has lent some support to the local unit.

According to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the local currency closed at Rs220.95 in the interbank market after depreciating registering a meagre loss of 0.03% against the greenback compared to Wednesday’s close of 220.88.

The market took positive cues from the current account deficit released a day earlier, which narrowed 37% to $2.2 billion in the first quarter of the current fiscal year due to lower imports and a rise in exports.

Commenting on the rupee’s movement, Pakistan-Kuwait Head of Research Samiullah Tariq said better than expected current account deficit number has improved the sentiment. “Slight movement was exhibited by the rupee,” he said.

Regarding the outlook, Tariq said it had improved significantly with a lower current account deficit number.

Since the start of the fiscal year 2022-23, the rupee has lost Rs16.1 or 7.85% against the US currency — which leaves its imprint on every corner of the global economy as it is the currency in which vital raw materials are bought and sold.

Dar rules out need for ‘steps’ to support rupee

A day earlier, Finance Minister Ishaq Dar ruled out the need for any particular supportive measures for the rupee, stoking optimism among traders that the ‘Darnomics’ will soon be able to crack the country’s monetary conundrum.

“The rupee has been heavily undervalued,” Dar said during an interview with Bloomberg in Washington, where he has been attending annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.

“It is due to speculation — and some players in the market have been responsible for that,” he said.

“I thank those players in the market who have realised that that game at the cost of the national currency will not continue,” he asserted while highlighting that the exchange rate stabilised after traders learned he would take office.

Responding to a query if he was planning to take any “specific steps” to boost the rupee, he said: “I don’t think so. We don’t have the luxury of physically spending foreign exchange — it’s very scarce at the moment.”

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Pakistan’s $1.1 billion loan tranche is approved by the IMF board.

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The cash is the third and last installment of a $3 billion standby agreement with the international lender that it obtained to prevent a sovereign default last year and that expires this month.

Following the discussion of Pakistan’s request for the release of funds at today’s IMF Executive Board meeting in Washington, the final tranche was authorized.

Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) came to a staff-level agreement last month about the last assessment of a $3 billion loan package.

The total amount of $1.9 billion that the nation has received thus far is divided into two tranches: $1.2 billion in July and $700 million in January 2024.

According to Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, Islamabad could have a staff-level agreement on the new program by early July. Pakistan is asking the IMF for a fresh, longer-term loan.

In order to support macroeconomic stability and carry out long-overdue and difficult structural changes, Islamabad says it is seeking a loan for a minimum of three years; however, Aurangzeb has reluctant to specify the specific program in question. If approved, it would be Pakistan’s 24th IMF bailout.

See Also: Pakistan formally requests new IMF assistance

The event transpired on the day following Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s meeting with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, during which he reaffirmed the government’s resolve to restart Pakistan’s economy.

During the meeting held in conjunction with the World Economic Forum Special Meeting, the prime minister announced that he had given his finance minister, Muhammad Aurangzeb, strict instructions to implement structural reforms, maintain strict fiscal discipline, and pursue prudent policies that would guarantee macroeconomic stability and continuous economic growth.

Georgieva was commended by him for helping Pakistan obtain the $3 billion Standby Arrangement (SBA) from the IMF last year, which was about to be finalized.

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Macroeconomic circumstances in Pakistan have improved.

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By virtue of the Board’s resolution, SDR 828 million, or roughly $1.1 billion, can be disbursed immediately, increasing the total amount disbursed under the arrangement to SDR 2.250 billion, or roughly $3 billion.

After being adopted by the Executive Board on July 12, 2023, Pakistan’s nine-month SBA effectively served as a framework for financial support from both bilateral and multilateral partners, as well as a policy anchor to resolve imbalances both domestically and internationally.

According to the official announcement from the IMF, Pakistan’s macroeconomic conditions have improved during the program. Given the ongoing recovery in the second half of the fiscal year, growth of two percent is anticipated in FY24.

With a primary surplus of 1.8 percent of GDP in the first half of the fiscal year 2024—well ahead of expectations and putting Pakistan on track to meet its target primary surplus of 0.4 percent of GDP by the end of the fiscal year—the country’s fiscal condition is still strengthening.

Even while it is still high, inflation is still falling and should end up at about 20 percent by the end of June if data-driven and adequately tight monetary policy is continued.

In contrast to 11.4 per cent last year, the IMF predicted in an official statement that Pakistan’s tax collection and grants will stay at 12.5% of GDP in FY2024.

After remaining at 7.8% of GDP in FY2023, the deficit is predicted to stay at 7.5% of GDP in FY2024.

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Pakistan’s fuel prices should drop.

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At 0423 GMT, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude prices fell 13 cents, or 0.16%, to $82.50 a barrel, while Brent crude futures were down 10 cents, or 0.11%, to $88.30 a barrel.

Both benchmarks’ front-month contracts saw losses of over 1% on Monday.

on line with the worldwide trend, the price of gasoline is anticipated to decrease by Rs. 5.4 per liter on the local market. In the same way, buyers in the Pakistani market may see a drop in the price of diesel of Rs8 a litre.

Additionally, it is anticipated that the prices of light fuel and kerosene will decrease by Rs5.40 and Rs8.3 per liter, respectively.

The finance ministry will receive a summary from the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA), and PM Shehbaz Sharif will be consulted before a final decision is made today.

The federal government raised the cost of gasoline by Rs. 4.53 per liter and diesel by Rs. 8.14 per liter at the most recent review.

At the moment, the price of gasoline was Rs 293.94 per liter, while the price of high-speed diesel was Rs 290.38 per liter.

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