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Rupee nosedives to all-time low of 290 against dollar amid political tumult

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KARACHI: The rupee fell sharply against the US dollar on Wednesday, losing Rs5.38, or 1.89%, to close at Rs290.22 per dollar in the interbank market, data shared by the State Bank of Pakistan showed.

The local currency had previously reached a record low of Rs288.42 per dollar on April 11. 

The local unit lost ground after Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Chairman Imran Khan was taken into custody a day earlier on charges of involvement in the Al-Qadir Trust case.

Samiullah Tariq, head of research at Pakistan-Kuwait Investment Company, told Geo.tv that uncertainty regarding the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme and increasing political turmoil were impacting the exchange rate. 

“The rupee-dollar parity doesn’t seem linked to the actual supply and demand of dollars,” he maintained.

“Continuing political instability has taken a toll on market sentiment pushing the Pakistani rupee to hit a record low. it has also increased uncertainty regarding the resumption of the IMF programme. 

“The heightened political turmoil has come at a time when the economy has been in the doldrums for months largely due to an acute balance of payment crisis, with falling State Bank of Pakistan reserves barely covering a month of highly controlled imports,” commented former finance ministry adviser Khaqan Najeeb. 

He also pointed out that even if Pakistan was able to finance its balance of payments till June, it would be hard to arrange financing following the end of the current IMF programme. 

Negotiating a new programme is an uphill task till there is certainty of the political cycle in the country, Najeeb added. 

A day earlier, Moody’s Investor Service warned that without an IMF programme, Pakistan could default as its financing options beyond June are “uncertain”.

“We consider that Pakistan will meet its external payments for the remainder of this fiscal year ending in June,” sovereign analyst with the ratings company in Singapore, Grace Lim, was quoted by Bloomberg.

“However, Pakistan’s financing options beyond June are highly uncertain. Without an IMF programme, Pakistan could default given its very weak reserves.”

Rising political tensions ahead of elections due this year are adding to the risk of a delay in the loan, as former prime minister Imran Khan is showing no signs of backing down against the government.

The coalition government is struggling to revive a $6.5 billion IMF bailout programme, which had stalled after the government failed to meet some loan conditions.

“An engagement with the IMF beyond June would support additional financing from other multilateral and bilateral partners, which could reduce default risk,” Lim, in an emailed response to questions, said.

It should be noted that Pakistan’s foreign-exchange reserves — which stand at $4.5 billion — remain extremely low and sufficient to cover only about one month of imports, she said.

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Trade ties between Pak-Oman: Both nations decide to activate “Joint Business Council”.

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Jam Kamal Khan, federal minister for commerce, visited Oman Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Muscat alongside chairman Faisal Abdullah Al Rawas.

To enable closer economic collaboration, both sides decided during the meeting to activate joint Business Council between OCCI and the federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and industry.

Concurrent with the conference, the Embassy of Pakistan arranged a b2b networking event in association with OCCI to gather Omani Businessmen and Pakistani Business Delegates investigating trade prospects.

Speaking on the occasion, Jam Kamal Khan said, “Our present trade figures do not fairly represent the depth of our connection. We can quickly raise the current Trade volume to two or three times its present level by just eliminating logistical and communication barriers.

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Despite economic gains, PSX remains strong.

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Amidst the ongoing negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) regarding a loan tranche, the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) has resumed its upward trajectory in recent days.

The KSE-100 Index gained 600 points on Friday, the penultimate working day of the business week, and then increased to 115,730 points as traders showed confidence and engaged in trading.

After experiencing fluctuations, the PSX gained strength on Thursday, as the major index surpassed 115,000 points.

The KSE 100-Index closed at 115,094.23 points after gaining 1,009.70 points, or 0.89 percent. 115,247.39 was the intraday high, and 14,429.93 was the lowest.

According to experts, one important factor is Moody’s Ratings’ upgrade of Pakistani banks. Investor confidence has also increased due to the expectation of a positive conclusion from the negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

In its assessment, Moody’s stated, “We have shifted our outlook on Pakistan’s banking system from stable to positive to reflect the banks’ resilient financial performance as well as improving macroeconomic conditions from very weak levels a year ago.”

The major index of the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) surpassed 115,000 on Thursday, indicating a surge in the market.

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Pakistan resolves to meet benchmarks, and the IMF promises economic help.

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In the midst of an ongoing economic review, the delegation from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has promised Pakistan economic cooperation.

In order to assess the delivery of a $1 billion tranche under the $7 billion rescue deal, IMF officials are now in Pakistan.

Today, March 14, marks the completion of the two-week-long economic review and negotiations between the global lender’s representatives and Pakistani authorities.

The team met with Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb at the Ministry of Finance for the last round of negotiations.

The nation’s economic team’s actions and performance were praised by the visiting officials.

Aurangzeb promised the IMF during the conference that all economic goals would be met. He said that as long as the loan program is in place, no goals would be broken.

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