Connect with us

Business

CPI inflation surges faster than expected in October to 26.6%

Published

on

  • CPI inflation up 4.7% compared to fall of 1.2% in Sept 2022.
  • Numbers mostly in line with the market expectations.
  • Impact of the high-base effect to kick in down the line.

ISLAMABAD: Accelerating faster than anticipated, Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation for October 2022 surged to 26.6% year-on-year,  latest data showed, chiefly fueled by high-priced food and a hawkish monetary outlook. 

According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), consumer prices rose 4.7% compared to a fall of 1.2% in September 2022 month-on-month. 

The inflation is not far from a 47-year high.

The inflation crossed 20% in June 2022, topping the 47-year high of 27.3% in August 2022 year-on-year.

PBS in a statement said the rise in consumer prices in October from last month was boosted mainly by electricity and food prices, while the higher CPI from October last year was caused by rising costs of food and fuel.

The numbers are in line with the market expectations.

The market was mostly bracing for the headline inflation to increase by 4% month-on-month. 

Moreover, food inflation swelled 36.2% year-on-year, while transport prices sped up 53.4%, clothing and footwear prices rose 18.3% and housing, water and electricity costs rose 11.9%.

Brokerage Ismail Iqbal Securities had projected the inflation to clock in at 25.7% as against 23.2% in September. “Overall, we expect FY23 average inflation at 22%. The sequential increase will be led by normalisation of electricity tariff, quarterly house rent revision, and higher perishable food prices,” the brokerage said in a report. 

“The impact would be diluted to some extent by a reduction in petroleum prices,” it added.

However, analysts see the impact of the high-base effect in December, while the announcement of a number of subsidies on several items amid cooling international commodity markets might reduce inflation pressure to around 22-23% in November.

The CPI inflation in urban areas was registered at 24.6% year-on-year in the month under review as against an increase of 21.2% in September 2022 and 9.6% in October 2021.

It rose to 4.5% in October 2022 month-on-month compared to a fall of 2.1% in the previous month and an uptick of 1.7% in October last.

In rural areas, CPI inflation touched 29.5% year-on-year in the outgoing month vis-à-vis an increase of 26.1% in the previous month and 8.7% in October 2021.

It, month-on-month, increased to 5.0% in October 2022 as compared to an increase of 0.2% in the previous month and an increase of 2.2% in October last year.

Increasing inflationary pressures remain a major threat to the economy amid eroding foreign exchange reserves.

State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) in its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting held the interest rate unchanged, citing that the prevailing stance sustains just the right balance between managing inflation and maintaining the growth rate post-floods.

“On the one hand, inflation could be higher and more persistent due to the supply shock to food prices, and it is important to ensure that this additional impetus does not spill over into broader prices in the economy. On the other, growth prospects have weakened, which should reduce demand-side pressures and suppress underlying inflation,” MPC had said.

According to CPI numbers, inflation increased the sharpest in transport, food, housing, and restaurant and hotel groups in the outgoing month.

Persistently high inflation has severely strained the economy which is also under pressure from falling foreign exchange reserves, the rupee rout, and a yawning current account deficit.

SBP-held foreign exchange reserves stand at $7.4 billion, hardly enough to cover one month’s imports.

Devastating floods in August claimed more than 1,700 lives, while multiplying the economic problems by wiping out crops and infrastructure.

Business

The investment plan for K-Electric will be audited every three months.

Published

on

By

In light of K-Electric’s inability to persuade NEPRA with its Rs. 484 billion investment plan, the regulatory body has decided to hold off on making changes to the utility’s Transmission & Distribution Investment Plan until FY 2030.

As stated in the order, the NEPRA will select the terms of reference (ToR) for the third-party audit in addition to announcing the quarterly audit. A report on the company’s investment plan’s progress will need to be submitted every quarter.

A performance report would also be required under the investment plan by K-Electric, Karachi’s only power distribution utility, according to the statement. A secure mechanism to avoid electrical mishaps was also mandated by the authority to the utility.

In the meantime, the power distribution firm stated in a statement that the investment plan will boost the utility’s infrastructure to meet present and future demands, decrease transmission and distribution losses, and increase customer base growth.

With investments totaling Rs. 544 billion, KE has been able to more than halve its T&D losses and quadruple its customer base and power consumption since privatisation, according to the statement.

A hearing in March 2023 was held to inform stakeholders about the projects that KE management had planned for FY2024–FY2030, and the statement claimed that the plan had been presented in compliance with regulatory requirements.

In terms of investment areas including expansion, energy loss reduction, network rehabilitation, maintenance, and safety, KE claimed to have clearly defined priorities and projects for this era.

The plan calls for the construction of transmission lines and grids, which will increase the dependability of KE’s network and make it possible to take on more electricity from the National Grid.

In order to manage the city’s needs through targeted investments and tech-based interventions, CEO KE Moonis Alvi said, “We are looking to invest $2 billion in Transmission and Distribution over the next 7 years.” The work of all the stakeholders who have contributed to this trip and who will help us modernise our infrastructure and get ready for the future is something I’d like to acknowledge.

The investment plan is a supplement to the business’s Power Acquisition Programme, which outlines KE’s goal of having 30% renewable energy in its generation mix by 2030. As part of its efforts to provide everyone with access to reasonably priced energy, the firm has also been granted regulatory permission for its RFPs for 640 MW of renewable projects.

Continue Reading

Business

$399 million in airline revenue is being blocked by Pakistan. IATA

Published

on

By

Pakistan and Bangladesh have been urged by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) to promptly release airline profits that are being withheld in violation of international agreements.

“Airlines are unable to repatriate over $720 million ($399 million in Pakistan and $323 million in Bangladesh) of revenues earned in these markets, resulting in a severe situation,” an IATA statement stated.

“Money-denominated expenses like lease agreements, spare parts, overflight fees, and fuel must be paid for in a timely manner by repatriating revenues to their home countries.”

Delaying repatriation raises exchange rate risks for airlines and violates bilateral agreements’ international commitments. In order for airlines to effectively continue to offer the aviation connectivity that both of these countries depend on, Pakistan and Bangladesh must immediately release the more than $720 million that they are blocking, according to Philip Goh, Regional Vice President for Asia-Pacific at IATA.

Pakistan needs to make the difficult repatriation procedure less complicated. According to the statement, this presently includes the need to present audit certifications and tax exemption certificates, both of which create needless delays.

Approximately 425,000 jobs and $2.8 billion in economic activity were supported by Pakistan’s aviation industry prior to COVID-19. Passenger numbers are predicted to increase by more than 2.5 times by 2040 after returning to pre-COVID levels in 2023, according to the statement.

Continue Reading

Business

The IMF executive board will meet on April 29 to discuss the release of $1.1 billion to Pakistan, according to the report.

Published

on

By

The cash represents the second and final tranche of a $3 billion standby agreement with the IMF, which was acquired last summer to avoid a sovereign default and expires this month.

The South Asian nation is looking for a fresh, longer-term IMF loan. Pakistan’s Finance Minister, Muhammad Aurangzeb, has stated that Islamabad expects to get a staff-level agreement on the new programme by early July.

Islamabad says it wants a loan for at least three years to help with macroeconomic stability and to carry out long-overdue and painful structural reforms, but Aurangzeb has declined to specify what type of programme the country wants.

Read more: Pakistan plans to agree on the outline of a new IMF loan in May. Fin-Min Aurangzeb

Pakistan has yet to make a formal request, but the Fund and the government are already in discussions.

If secured, it will be Pakistan’s 24th IMF bailout.

The $350 billion economy is experiencing a chronic balance of payment crisis, with nearly $24 billion in debt and interest to repay over the next fiscal year – three times the amount of foreign currency reserves held by the central bank.

Pakistan’s finance ministry expects the economy to grow by 2.6% in the current fiscal year, which ends in June, while average inflation is expected to be 24%, down from 29.2% in fiscal year 2023/2024. Last May, inflation soared to a record high of 38%.

Continue Reading

Trending