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Exchange loss likely to deprive masses benefit in petrol price cut

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  • Govt to announce petrol price today for next fortnight.
  • Exchange loss adjustment to rob consumers of petrol price cut.
  • Current exchange rate is heavily tilted in favour of the dollar.

KARACHI: Due to a sharp rise in the value of the dollar in the last two weeks, the masses may not get any benefit in the prices of petroleum products, according to a The News report.

The report said that the price of diesel is reflecting an Rs34/litre decrease for the next fortnight. The government is scheduled to review the price of petroleum products today.

The international price of crude oil has come down, which can be translated into a major cut in domestic prices of petroleum products, but only if the government passes on the full impact to the end consumers.

However, sources in the oil sector believe that the government would not pass on the full impact of the reduction in the international prices on exchange losses accumulated over the months, which had put the oil sector in a financial crunch.

The government may be deterred to pass on the impact to end consumers, as the oil sector would be in deep financial trouble if their losses are not adjusted on account of sharp exchange rate fluctuations in the past many months.

Diesel price

Oil sector sources told the publication that the ex-refinery price of diesel is showing Rs34/litre decrease for the next fortnight. However, the exchange losses on diesel go over Rs100/litre, which needs to be adjusted.

Sources said that the government may pass on some relief by cutting the diesel price by Rs15 to 20 per litre for the consumers while adjusting the remaining exchange losses.

Sources, however, felt that this was a ripe time for the government to adjust whatever remained of exchange loss adjustment.

The fall in crude prices gave the government enough fiscal space to accommodate the oil companies, which have been facing financial problems as they were not receiving the full amount of exchange losses.

Petrol price

As far as petrol is concerned, its price is showing Rs13-14 per litre decline on the basis of its ex-refinery price in the next fortnight.

Again the exchange loss adjustment may deprive the consumers of the benefit of price reduction and the government may only pass on Rs4-5 relief while adjusting the remaining amount.

Exchange rate

The present exchange rate is heavily tilted in the favour of the dollar. It is a huge hurdle for the government, in terms of reducing the prices of petroleum products in the domestic market.

According to the oil industry estimates, the average exchange rate calculated for the next fortnight is Rs283 to determine the price of the ex-refinery.

Pakistan’s oil sector has repeatedly requested the government in many letters to resolve the exchange losses issue, with few players in the industry pleading to make it more fair and transparent.

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Over 500 points are lost by PSX stocks during intraday trading.

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The market saw a bearish trend as it dropped more than 500 points, just hours after Pakistan’s Stock Exchange (PSX) reached a new milestone by reaching the 73,000 mark.

As compared to the previous close of 72,742.75 points, the KSE-100 index dropped to 72,177.22 points, or 565.52 points, or 0.78% lower.
Expectations of an interest rate drop of up to 100 basis points during today’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, according to Intermarket Securities director of research CFA Muhammad Saad Ali, are driving market confidence.

The market is also being driven, he continued, by favourable news flow on upcoming negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a new programme.

Last Friday, the late-session purchasing fueled a 1% advance in the stocks, which helped them close close to 73,000 points. Dealers reported this.

Closed at 72,742.75 points on Friday, the benchmark KSE-100 index saw a gain of 771.35 points, or 1.07%.

Notwithstanding the turbulent session, according to Chase Securities analyst Muhammad Rizwan, “the market rebounded with a strong start and achieved a new all-time high.”.

“This impressive performance was driven by significant contributions from various sectors: fertiliser added 386 points, commercial banks contributed 174 points, the power sector provided 112 points, and cement added 93 points, collectively reversing the previous negative close and boosting market sentiment.”

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Despite global tides, Pakistan’s economy is recovering, according to Governor SBP

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Ahmad, who was speaking at the ICMA Pakistan Members Convocation, emphasised the country’s economy’s outstanding development while also highlighting the difficult macroeconomic environment of the previous year, which was marked by rising inflation, depleting foreign exchange reserves, pressure on exchange rates, and increased uncertainty.

Nonetheless, in the present times, the PKR has stabilized and the stock market is rising to unprecedented heights, reserves have increased to around US$8 billion despite large debt repayments, and inflation is dramatically decreasing.

Ahmad gave the government and SBP credit for their unwavering commitment to addressing macroeconomic difficulties head-on for this reversal.

Ahmad emphasized that the government’s efforts to reduce spending and achieve fiscal consolidation, together with the need for unpopular but necessary actions like the SBP’s increase of the policy rate to 22%, are producing beneficial results.

As global shocks like climate change, technology improvements, and cyber threats become more complex, he emphasises the significance of new viewpoints and creative solutions in tackling long-standing economic concerns.

Congratulating the graduating accounting professionals, Ahmad emphasized the importance of having a thorough understanding of accounting, finance, and economics in order to create workable solutions. He also urged the professionals to take a proactive approach to addressing new difficulties.

Ahmad emphasized the value of leadership abilities in policymaking and urged graduates to positively impact Pakistan’s economic landscape by working hard, being devoted to excellence, and contributing their full effort.

Along with giving a hearty welcome to Governor Jameel Ahmad and other SBP dignitaries, ICMA Pakistan President Shehzad Ahmed Malik also praised the SBP team’s efforts to stabilize the currency. With that, Ahmad presented the graduating CMAs with their degrees.

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The IMF board is anticipated to approve Pakistan’s $1.1 billion payout today.

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The IMF executive board meeting is scheduled to go until May 3, according to specifics. Based on the sources, it is expected that the international lender will approve Pakistan’s $1.1 billion payout today.

The State Bank of Pakistan is anticipated to obtain the final tranche from the IMF tomorrow, following approval, they added.

On July 12, 2023, Pakistan took advantage of a $3 billion loan package offered by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Thus far, Pakistan has been granted two installments totaling $1.9 billion: $1.2 billion in July and $700 million in January 2024.

On the last assessment of a $3 billion loan plan, Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) came to a staff-level agreement last month.

Following their week-long visit to Islamabad, which ended on March 19, the IMF delegation made the announcement.

Global lender expressed its optimism that the incoming caretaker administration and central bank of Pakistan would persist in their efforts to stabilize the country’s economy, complimenting them on their “strong program implementation.”

In order to further solidify economic and financial stability, the new government is dedicated to carrying out the policy initiatives that were initiated under the existing Stand-By Arrangement for the balance of this year, the IMF official stated.

In June of last year, the IMF granted Pakistan’s economic stabilization program support through a critical nine-month agreement.

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