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Inflation in Pakistan could average 33% in first half of 2023, says Moody’s economist

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  • Economy needs persistent and sound economic management.
  • Consumer price index rose 27.5% year-on-year in January.
  • Current foreign exchange reserves barely cover 18 days worth of imports.

MUMBAI/ISLAMABAD: Inflation in Pakistan could average 33% in the first half of 2023 before trending lower, and a bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) alone is unlikely to put the economy back on track, a senior economist with Moody’s Analytics told Reuters.

“Our view is that an IMF bailout alone isn’t going to be enough to get the economy back on track. What the economy really needs is persistent and sound economic management,” senior economist Katrina Ell said in an interview on Wednesday.

“There’s still an inevitably tough journey ahead. We’re expecting fiscal and monetary austerity to continue well into 2024,” she added.

Pakistan and the IMF could not reach a deal last week and a visiting IMF delegation departed Islamabad after 10 days of talks, but said negotiations would continue. Pakistan is in dire need of funds as it battles a wrenching economic crisis.

An agreement on the ninth review of the programme would release over $1.1 billion of the total $2.5 billion pending as part of the current package agreed in 2019 which ends on June 30. The funds are crucial for the economy whose current foreign exchange reserves barely cover 18 days worth of imports.

“Even though the economy is in a deep recession, inflation is incredibly high as (result of) part of the latest bailout conditions,” Ell said.

“So what we’re expecting is that through the first half of this year, inflation is going to average about 33% and then might trend a little bit lower after that,” she added.

The consumer price index rose 27.5% year-on-year in January, its highest in nearly half a century.

Low-income households could remain under extreme pressure as a result of high inflation on account of being disproportionately exposed to non-discretionary items.

“Food prices are high and they can’t avoid paying for that, so we’re going to see higher poverty rates as well feed through,” the economist said.

No overnight fix

Ell said Pakistan has not has a great track record when it comes to IMF bailouts, so infusing additional funds alone may prove to be of little use.

“If we’re going to see any improvement, it’s going to be very gradual. There’s just no overnight fix,” she said.

The weaker rupee, which is plumbing record lows, is adding to imported inflation while domestically high energy costs on the back of tariff increases and still elevated food prices is likely to keep inflation high.

Moody’s expects economic growth for the 2023 calendar year of around 2.1%.

“It is likely that we will see further monetary tightening in Pakistan to try and stabilise inflation and also with the weakness in the FX they might kind of intervene there to try and force in stability, but again it’s not going to be a silver bullet,” Ell said.

Last month, the central bank raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points (bps) to 17% in a bid to rein in persistent price pressures. It has raised the key rate by a total of 725 bps since January 2022.

With significant recession-type conditions in Pakistan, skyrocketing borrowing costs could really exacerbate domestic demand struggles, she said.

“You really need to see sustained sound macroeconomic management, and just injecting further funds in there without decent backing is not going to deliver the results that you’re looking for.”

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Dr. Shahzad Baig advocates for coordinated efforts to eradicate polio and exhorts parents to reject propaganda.

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In an endeavour to make Pakistan polio-free, Dr. Shahzad Baig, the coordinator of the National Emergency Operations Centre for Polio Eradication, asked parents to vaccinate their children against polio and appealed for society’s combined efforts to eradicate the disease.

He stated that the national cause of eliminating polio is something that people from all walks of life, including the media, academics from religious institutions, educators, parents, and influential individuals, should unite and work towards.

In order to completely remove this threat from our nation, he added, all political and religious groups, celebrities, members of all social groups, and regular citizens should step up.

“A last-ditch effort is required to end this terrible illness,” he continued.

Along with acknowledging the unsung heroes of the polio eradication project, he also expressed gratitude to the front-line workers who persevered in challenging conditions to administer the life-saving vaccination to youngsters.

“Please greet these workers at the door when they arrive, parents and carers. The next generation of our nation is being safeguarded by their efforts, he said.

The true difficulty, according to him, was getting the word out to local pulpits and rural places. People shouldn’t be duped by unfavourable information regarding the polio vaccine, according to Dr. Shahzad Baig.

In response to a query, he stated that the anti-polio vaccine was being pushed to parents and that multiple incidents of rejection had been documented in various isolated communities.

He gave the assurance that all aid and cooperation from the federal government is being provided in this regard.

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Saudi investment and falling inflation cause Pakistani stocks to soar.

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The benchmark KSE-100 Index increased by more than 1.50 percent on Monday, driven by the possibility of significant Saudi investment. Investors are now more optimistic that the central bank will soon begin a cycle of interest rate cuts, and another IMF programme is very much on the horizon.

The KSE-100 Index increased by 910.25 points, or 1.27 percent, by 1:29 pm PST to close at 72,812.34, having reached an intraday high of 73,060.74.

Additionally, on Monday, Ibrahim Al Mubarak, the deputy minister of investments for Saudi Arabia, stated that his nation preferred Pakistan’s economic growth and thought it was the best place to make investments.

The news is definitely good for equities that have been cheap since their market capitalization peaked in 2017, as many industries—energy, agriculture, technology, and mining being the primary ones—can now attract much-needed foreign investment.

The inflation of Pakistan

The consumer price index (CPI) for April increased by 17.3 percent, the lowest level since May 2022. This led to the benchmark index rising by 1244.45 points, or 1.76 percent, during the last session on Friday of last week.

This indicates that, like in March, annual inflation declined for the fourth straight month in April and stayed below the current record high interest rates of 22 percent. like a result, the State Bank of Pakistan may decide to begin reducing interest rates at its upcoming meeting on June 10.

While the pattern seen on Friday was also influenced by a market correction, the persistence of this most recent upswing indicates that investors are anticipating an economic recovery in the context of falling inflation and impending Saudi Arabian investment.

IMF APPEAL

In the meantime, the IMF continues to play a significant role in Pakistan, influencing not just public policy but also private sector initiatives and the lives of common citizens. Furthermore, the market was undoubtedly helped by the world’s largest lender’s most recent announcement of the upcoming transaction negotiations.

The Bretton Woods Institution said on Sunday that a delegation was scheduled to visit Pakistan this month to talk about a new initiative, prior to Islamabad starting the annual budget-making process for the upcoming fiscal year.

Although Pakistan’s $3 billion short-term programme helped prevent a sovereign default last month, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s administration has emphasised the necessity for a new, longer-term initiative.

The IMF responded to Reuters via email, saying that a mission is anticipated to visit Pakistan in May to review the FY25 budget, policies, and reforms under a proposed new programme for the wellbeing of all Pakistanis.

MERCURABLE BY SAMPLE

Meanwhile, it has been claimed that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman would pay a visit to Pakistan later this month. The kingdom has been making massive investments all over the world in an effort to become a more significant player in world affairs.

It makes sense that after years of political unrest and economic hardship, his presence and the Saudi investment will aid Pakistan in establishing itself as a desirable location for investors.

The explanation is straightforward: Saudi Arabia continues to be a significant actor in world politics. Nonetheless, the globe has begun to view MBS, the crown prince’s nickname, as a role model due to his policies of diversifying his nation’s economy and elevating the kingdom to a centre of commerce.

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Pakistan

To discuss privatisation with the government, Bilawal establishes a committee.

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Chairman of the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, has formed a committee to discuss privatisation concerns with the government.

Sherry Rehman, Syed Naveed Qamar, and Saleem Mandviwalla are among the committee members, according to a notification released by the PPP Chairman’s Secretariat.

The coalition administration has already established a panel to actively pursue the privatisation of state-owned firms (SOEs), such as Pakistan Steel Mills and Pakistan International Airlines.

To allow the government to sell PIA’s fifty-one percent of the company, the Privatisation Commission called for bids from interested parties in April.

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