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Why rupee tanked to historic low?

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The Pakistani rupee lost over Rs14, or 5%, against the US dollar in the outgoing week as the cash-strapped economy spirals deeper into a financial crisis amid challenges like looming debt default, shortage of dollars, unsustainable spending, uncontrolled inflation, and nine-year low foreign reserves.

Earlier during the week, the local unit advanced from a record low as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) team began negotiations with Pakistan over the resumption of its $6.5 billion bailout programme; however, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s rather concerning comments regarding the ongoing parleys sent the currency market reeling.

The PM on Friday said the Fund review mission was giving Finance Minister Ishaq Dar and his team a “very tough time” in the talks —  expected to conclude on February 9.

Following his comments, the market panicked and the rupee devalued by 1.89% (or Rs5.22) to a new all-time low of Rs276.58 against the US dollar on Friday compared to Thursday’s close of Rs271.38.

Cumulatively, the rupee slumped 3.14% (or Rs8.69) in three days, compared to Wednesday’s close of Rs267.89 — the rupee recovered as crucial talks with the Washington-based lender resumed.

Tresmark, in its weekly currency commentary, noted that the rupee fell sharply last week from 264 per dollar to 278.50.

“It seemed to have stabilised around the 270 level, until the prime minister and finance minister spoke out,” the financial terminal for real-time market rates, news, charts, financial data, and technical analysis stated.

It added that when PM Shehbaz said that the IMF was imposing harsh conditions and when the finance czar said they were looking for philanthropists for billions of dollars, “traders assumed that the leadership was still looking for avenues other than IMF or that they would waste more time in negotiating with them.”

“However, in our assessment, the premier may have been only trying to prepare other stakeholders and vote base for harsh steps and measures,” Tresmark said, adding that another important factor behind the rupee’s downfall was the steep decline in total reserves of the country which are now at $8.7 billion (down by $712 million).

PM Shehbaz is battling to keep the economy afloat amid dollar shortages, and political tensions deepen.

Pakistan — with a $350 billion economy — is seeking a crucial instalment of $1.1 billion from the lender of the last resort to avoid default.

Tresmark mentioned that until and unless traders don’t feel confident about things getting better, especially the situation of reserves, the rupee would continue to fall, irrespective of its level.

“Traders we spoke to think the first and second level of resistance of 280 per dollar and 285 per dollar will be breached in the coming week unless the IMF comes on board. They also feel that 270-275 per dollar is the fair level post-IMF agreement, and any outruns will be temporary and will get corrected once there is some visibility of inflow,” the commentary read.

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There are US$13,280.5 million in foreign exchange reserves in Pakistan.

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According to a representative for the central bank, as of April 19, 2024, the nation’s total liquid foreign reserves were valued at US$ 13,280.5 million. A loss of US$74 million left the State Bank of Pakistan’s foreign reserves at US$7,981.2 million.

Commercial banks have $5,299.3 million in reserves for Pakistan.

In the week that concluded on April 12, the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) foreign exchange reserves increased by $14.4 million to $8.055 billion.

“In a weekly statement, SBP stated that it has repaid US$ 1 billion in principal and interest on Pakistan’s International Bond, which matures this week.”

But at $13.374 billion, the nation’s total reserves decreased by $68 million. In the same way, commercial banks’ reserves dropped to $5.319 billion, a reduction of $82 million.

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NIMA seminar to increase Pakistan’s ship recycling industry’s capacity

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According to a release, important players from a range of maritime industries attended the conference to discuss issues facing the shipping sector.

It further stated that the symposium cleared the path for the resurgence of a sustainable future in ship recycling.

Participants in the conference included representatives of the Gadani Ship Breaking Labour Union, PSBA, KS&EW, KPT, PMSA, GEMS, and the federal and Balochistani governments.

Furthermore, global perspectives and ideas were offered by international specialists such as Rabia Razzaque from UN-ILO and Professor Raphael Baumler from the World Maritime University.

The seminar emphasized Pakistan’s capacity to emerge as a pioneer in the field of environmentally friendly ship recycling.

In order to protect the environment and the safety of employees, the participants emphasized the importance of following international standards and regulations.

During his speech, Chief Guest Senator Nisar Ahmed Khoro emphasized the importance of the maritime industry’s resurgence and the crucial necessity for coordinated efforts from all parties involved.

A new age of economic prosperity, worker safety, and environmental responsibility for Pakistan’s maritime industry was called for as he urged the stakeholders to work together on a comprehensive SENSREC program.

Vice Admiral Ahmed Saeed (Retd), the president of NIMA, emphasized the significance of environmental stewardship and safety in ship recycling procedures.

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Inflows into the Roshan Digital Account surged to $7.660 billion on March 24.

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According to the data, remittance inflows for the month of March totaled US$ 182 million, whereas they were US$ 141 million in February and US$ 142 million in January 2024.

Millions of Non-Resident Pakistanis (NRPs), including those who own Non-Resident Pakistan Origin Cards (POCs), can now engage in banking, payment, and investing activities in Pakistan with the help of these accounts, which offer cutting-edge banking solutions.

According to a statement from the State Bank of Pakistan, the number of accounts registered under the program increased by 11,091 from 668,701 accounts in February 2024 to 679,792 accounts in March 2024.

As of March 2024, the central bank reported that foreign nationals of Pakistan have invested US $312 million in Naya Pakistan Certificates, US $528 million in Naya Pakistan Islamic Certificates, and US $31 million in Roshan Equity Investment.

It is important to note that former prime minister Imran Khan introduced the Roshan Digital Account initiative in September 2020 with the goal of giving Pakistanis living abroad access to digital banking services for the first time.

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