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Oil prices tumble more than $4 ahead of potential large US rate hike

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  • Oil prices have tumbled in past two weeks on recession concerns.
  • Investors focused on the prospect of large US rate hike later this month.
  • Both contracts hit lows today which were below February 23 close.

LONDON: Oil prices fell more than $4 on Thursday as investors focused on the prospect of a large US rate hike later this month that could stem inflation but at the same time hit oil demand.

Brent crude futures for September fell by $4.05 to $95.52 a barrel by 1356 GMT and were on track to finish the third session in a row below $100.

US West Texas Intermediate crude for August delivery was at $91.63 a barrel, down $4.67.

Both contracts hit lows on Thursday which were below the February 23 close, the day before Russia invaded Ukraine, with Brent reaching its lowest since February 21.

Oil prices have tumbled in the past two weeks on recession concerns despite a drop in crude and refined products exports from Russia amid Western sanctions and supply disruption in Libya. 

“Clearly, the focus is now on the demand side of the oil equation. Yesterday’s weekly EIA (US Energy Information Administration) report showed sizeable builds in product inventories,” Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates, said.

“Collateral damage of growing fears of inflation is the strong dollar, which is also bearish for oil prices. Interestingly, physical markets are still strong but the change in sentiment of financial investors is currently the dominant driving force.”

The US Federal Reserve is seen ramping up its battle with 40-year high inflation with a supersized 100 basis points rate hike this month after a grim inflation report showed price pressures accelerating. The Fed policy meeting is scheduled for July 26-27. 

The Fed rate hike is expected to follow a similar surprise move by the Bank of Canada on Wednesday.

Investors also flocked to the dollar, often seen as a safe haven asset. The dollar index hit a 20-year high on Wednesday, which makes oil purchases more expensive for non-US buyers.

In Europe, signals were also bearish for demand with the European Commission cutting its economic growth forecast and raising the expected inflation rate to 7.6%. 

Worries of COVID-19 curbs in multiple Chinese cities to rein in new cases of a highly infectious subvariant have also kept a lid on oil prices.

China’s daily crude oil imports in June sank to their lowest since July 2018, as refiners anticipated lockdown measures to curb demand, customs data showed on Wednesday.

Data from the US Energy Information Administration also point to slackening demand, with the product supplied slumping to 18.7 million barrels per day, the lowest since June 2021. Crude inventories rose, bolstered by another big release from strategic reserves. 

US President Joe Biden will on Friday fly to Saudi Arabia, where he will attend a summit of Gulf allies and call for them to pump more oil.

However, spare capacity at the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is running low, with most of the producers pumping at maximum capacity, and it is unclear how much extra Saudi Arabia can bring into the market quickly. 

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There are US$13,280.5 million in foreign exchange reserves in Pakistan.

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According to a representative for the central bank, as of April 19, 2024, the nation’s total liquid foreign reserves were valued at US$ 13,280.5 million. A loss of US$74 million left the State Bank of Pakistan’s foreign reserves at US$7,981.2 million.

Commercial banks have $5,299.3 million in reserves for Pakistan.

In the week that concluded on April 12, the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) foreign exchange reserves increased by $14.4 million to $8.055 billion.

“In a weekly statement, SBP stated that it has repaid US$ 1 billion in principal and interest on Pakistan’s International Bond, which matures this week.”

But at $13.374 billion, the nation’s total reserves decreased by $68 million. In the same way, commercial banks’ reserves dropped to $5.319 billion, a reduction of $82 million.

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NIMA seminar to increase Pakistan’s ship recycling industry’s capacity

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According to a release, important players from a range of maritime industries attended the conference to discuss issues facing the shipping sector.

It further stated that the symposium cleared the path for the resurgence of a sustainable future in ship recycling.

Participants in the conference included representatives of the Gadani Ship Breaking Labour Union, PSBA, KS&EW, KPT, PMSA, GEMS, and the federal and Balochistani governments.

Furthermore, global perspectives and ideas were offered by international specialists such as Rabia Razzaque from UN-ILO and Professor Raphael Baumler from the World Maritime University.

The seminar emphasized Pakistan’s capacity to emerge as a pioneer in the field of environmentally friendly ship recycling.

In order to protect the environment and the safety of employees, the participants emphasized the importance of following international standards and regulations.

During his speech, Chief Guest Senator Nisar Ahmed Khoro emphasized the importance of the maritime industry’s resurgence and the crucial necessity for coordinated efforts from all parties involved.

A new age of economic prosperity, worker safety, and environmental responsibility for Pakistan’s maritime industry was called for as he urged the stakeholders to work together on a comprehensive SENSREC program.

Vice Admiral Ahmed Saeed (Retd), the president of NIMA, emphasized the significance of environmental stewardship and safety in ship recycling procedures.

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Inflows into the Roshan Digital Account surged to $7.660 billion on March 24.

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According to the data, remittance inflows for the month of March totaled US$ 182 million, whereas they were US$ 141 million in February and US$ 142 million in January 2024.

Millions of Non-Resident Pakistanis (NRPs), including those who own Non-Resident Pakistan Origin Cards (POCs), can now engage in banking, payment, and investing activities in Pakistan with the help of these accounts, which offer cutting-edge banking solutions.

According to a statement from the State Bank of Pakistan, the number of accounts registered under the program increased by 11,091 from 668,701 accounts in February 2024 to 679,792 accounts in March 2024.

As of March 2024, the central bank reported that foreign nationals of Pakistan have invested US $312 million in Naya Pakistan Certificates, US $528 million in Naya Pakistan Islamic Certificates, and US $31 million in Roshan Equity Investment.

It is important to note that former prime minister Imran Khan introduced the Roshan Digital Account initiative in September 2020 with the goal of giving Pakistanis living abroad access to digital banking services for the first time.

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